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一位「老保釣」的中國夢 -- 萬李娜/袁沅
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胡卜凱

胡秋原先生之子、「保釣運動」發起人之一、台「中華保釣協會」原發言人胡卜凱先生接受本報專訪,暢談

 

一位「老保釣」的中國夢

 

胡卜凱這個名字,或許你不熟悉,但提起上世紀70年代轟轟烈烈的「保釣運動」,你一定不陌生。

 

這位年近古稀的臺灣先生,就是上世紀70年代保釣運動的發起人之一。他的父親胡秋原先生被譽為「兩岸破冰第一人」,最早吹響「保釣運動」的號角。

 

本報記者 萬李娜/袁沅,05/04/13

 

作為那段歷史參與者和見證者的胡卜凱,註定成為兩岸歷史與現實的講述者。日前,本報記者專訪了胡卜凱先生,傾聽了他對當前的海峽兩岸局勢的思考,對「中國夢」的理解,以及父親胡秋原先生的往事。

 

侃談民間「保釣運動」

 

上世紀70年代保釣運動的兩大主力,一是美國的政治社團大風社,二是《科學月刊》。1967年到美國留學的胡卜凱,既是大風社的創始人之一,又是《科學月刊》的成員,因而得以建議《科學月刊》負責人林孝信、劉源俊教授等以該刊為聯絡網積極推動了保釣運動,三人都是民間保釣運動的中堅分子。

 

幾十年過去了,談及現在臺灣民間保釣的力量,胡卜凱介紹主要有兩方面:一是1970年代參加過保釣運動的「老保釣」;二是8090年代陸續加入保釣運動的中生代。

 

200811月成立至今的「中華保釣協會」(以下簡稱「協會」)就是由這兩股力量共同組成,「協會」成員目前大約在70人左右。

 

曾任「協會」發言人的胡卜凱認為他們保釣行動主要有兩個層面:一是針對日本政府所謂的管轄權進行挑戰,破除所謂先占原則的任何正當性。四年多來「協會」同仁出海次數大約在十次,特別是去年10月的出海行動曾被媒體大量報導,彰顯了他們的立場和努力。

 

另一個層面則是對釣魚島相關議題的宣導。這一部分包括到日本交流協會示威和抗議;舉辦釣魚島議題研討會以及在社區及學校舉辦釣魚島議題說明會等等。過去四年多來,這三項活動「協會」大概各舉辦過十次左右。2012923日的保釣遊行有1,000人左右參加。

 

面對台當局對釣魚島的態度及政策,胡卜凱說,在20129月以前,臺灣當局對釣魚島並沒有一致和一貫的態度及政策。在20129月以後,臺灣當局在行動上堅持和表達了對釣魚臺宣示主權的原則和立場。這是值得肯定的地方。但我認為,在中、美兩國政府就臺灣地位取得共識或默契以前,臺灣當局在任何國際議題上,大概都沒有和大陸政府聯手的空間或自由。他認為,臺灣當局對釣魚島的態度及政策隨著臺灣領導人的聲望以及當時的國內外形勢而改變。

 

隨著政府層面愈發重視保釣,胡卜凱認為或許不再需要民間力量積極參與。從20129月他開始淡出釣運,今年2月因為年事已高,退出了「中華保釣協會」。但他表示自己過去曾多次主張,把釣魚島列入海協、海基兩會議程,展開對話和磋商。21世紀,我們人類應該學習或進化到用和平方式來解決爭端。在這個認知下,我認為共同開發在解決釣魚島議題上是值得當局嚴肅考慮的一個選項。胡卜凱說。

 

為「中國夢」而振奮

 

20121129日,習近平在參觀復興之路展覽時,提出實現中華民族偉大復興的「中國夢」。他在十二屆全國人大一次會議的講話中,系統闡發了這個思想。在出訪俄羅斯非洲國家、和出席博鰲論壇等講話中,又進一步做了論述。

 

很多學者指出「中國夢」應是兩岸同胞共同的目標。

 

對於這些,胡卜凱很是關注。他在網路上看到許多習近平關於「中國夢」的論述和闡釋,之後自己還查找了習近平在十二屆全國人大一次會議閉幕會上講話全文並仔細閱讀。

 

在胡卜凱看來,「夢」是一個非常有力,每個人都能瞭解的比喻。他說:習總書記使用這種軟性的、讓人民有感的、大家能夠產生共鳴的話語,宣示他的施政遠景、方針和藍圖,令人耳目一新。我個人相當振奮。因為這些內容是針對中國社會現實,規劃了一劑對症下藥的良方。相信他的話感動了很多人,我希望這個新風格也是習總書記決定落實傾聽人民呼聲、回應人民期待,保證人民平等參與的前奏。

 

「夢」一方面是現實的反映,另一方面代表著人們對理想的憧憬和追求。胡卜凱認為,對7080後來說,他們的夢多半會著重在人生出彩這個面向。

 

而對我這種50前、40後出生的人來說,我們雖然沒有經歷抗戰的洗禮,但從父母和師長那裡,得到很多苦難中國的第一手資料。實現中華民族偉大復興的確是我這個時代的人在青年和中年時期共同的夢。胡卜凱說,隨著中國在中國共產黨領導下努力實現大國崛起,他最大的希望就是13億中國人都能夠過著小康社會幸福溫馨的生活。

 

在共同圓夢的過程中,胡卜凱認為兩岸同胞應該一起攜手。

 

他認為,大陸同胞一方面需要在中國共產黨領導下,從各方面落實經濟、政治、文化、社會、生態文明等建設,以及深化改革開放,推動科學發展。另一方面,大家也需要積極的參與和促成服務、責任、法治、廉潔政府的建立。這樣才能保證政府有效的運用資源和公平的分配資源。因為政府是任何一個社會中最大和最有力量的資源擁有者、運用者和分配者,政府的功能在於提供一個讓全國人民能夠在各自選擇的領域、充分發揮本身潛能、實現各自夢想的環境。 胡卜凱說。

 

他特別提及,兩岸統一是實現中華民族偉大復興的必要條件之一。因此,臺灣同胞的工作應該是督促政府儘快啟動兩岸領導人及相關部會間的政治對話,促成和平統一早日實現。

 

潛移默化得到父親「身教」

 

胡秋原先生1947年起擔任國民黨立法委員19889月,身為立法委員的胡秋原,無視李登輝之流的高壓和阻撓,毅然來到北京,與老朋友李先念、鄧穎超一起共商兩岸統一,在兩岸人民乃至全世界華人中間掀起了巨大的波瀾,從而被譽為兩岸破冰第一人

 

胡秋原一生都致力於保護中國傳統文化,創辦《中華雜誌》,刊登過不少有影響力的文章。他還任「中國統一聯盟」名譽主席。

 

身為胡秋原之子,胡卜凱說潛移默化地得到父親的「身教」

 

胡卜凱是台灣大學物理系畢業生。我的教育和職業在理工方面。所以很少有機會接觸中國典籍,對中國文化的瞭解可說相當淺薄。不過,隨著年齡和人生經驗的累積,越來越感到中學時所讀過《四書》和其他諸子著作的內容充滿了睿智,也愈發理解家父言行中對中國文化的推崇和熱愛。」他說

 

小時候的胡卜凱對父親印象最深刻的是他仗義執言的行動和他富貴不能淫,貧賤不能移,威武不能屈以及雖千萬人吾往矣的氣概。到了40歲以後,我體會到任何人要長期做到這三點非常困難。也終於瞭解什麼是儒家知識份子的傳統,以及他們動力和勇氣的來源。我想這些就是我在家父身上看到的中國文化,以及他在這方面對我的影響。胡卜凱說。

 

除了父親對自己的影響,胡卜凱工程師的職業生涯,養成了他根據現實的認知和生活的需求來判斷與決定的思考模式。也正是這種素養,使得他根據國內外形勢審時度勢。

 

我曾有一篇文章談到五十多年來,我在兩岸政策觀點的演變以及造成這些演變的現實因素。我在1993年回臺灣工作和定居,但直到2002年左右,才加入中國統一聯盟自此,胡卜凱開始在個人博客中呼籲一國兩制和平統一,並相當高產

 

近兩年來,胡卜凱感覺體力和集中力大不如前,除了每週固定時間做運動外,大部分時間在網路上流覽重大新聞、科學新知和八卦消息。他仍然經營自己的博客,但發表文章的次數從每週10 20篇降低到每週三至五篇。

 

很想借助團結報的平臺,跟民革的老朋友們和讀者問好。訪問最後,胡卜凱先生拜託記者轉達對大家的祝福。

 

轉載自北京民革中央出版《團結報》 >> 【海峽兩岸】欄



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At Prestigious Peking University, a Debate Over the ‘Chinese Dream’

 

Gu Yongqiang, Beijing, Time, 05/28/13

Last June, China’s leader Xi Jinping visited Peking University, the country’s premier academic institution. Addressing students from the school of archaeology and museology, Xi, who was then China’s Vice President, gave a boilerplate speech, encouraging the students to study hard and work at “party building,” the curious term used by the ruling Chinese Communist Party to describe efforts to perpetuate its own power.

 

On April 28, the undergraduate league of the students whom Xi addressed last year returned the favor with a letter to the new Chinese leader. In their missive, they reported on their efforts to educate themselves — a process that has apparently proceeded swimmingly — and expressed their ardor for Xi’s new political slogan, the Chinese dream. The catchphrase, which is designed to unite the Chinese people at a time of economic uncertainty and growing social unrest, has been widely covered in the state media — even if few are sure exactly what it means. This month, Xi sent a letter back to the Peking University students, encouraging the students to “cherish their glorious youth, strive with pioneer spirit and contribute their wisdom and energy to the realization of the Chinese dream.”

 

(MORE: Forged Transcripts and Fake Essays: How Unscrupulous Agents Get Chinese Students into U.S. Schools)

 

But far from instilling patriotism in the hearts of Peking University students, the Chinese-dream letter campaign has instead raised questions about the august school’s ethos. Founded in 1898, Peking University has played a crucial role in China’s recent history. Early last century, the school served as the headquarters of a cultural movement aimed at disseminating democracy and science across the nation. In 1919, Peking University students helped drive the May Fourth anti-imperialist movement. During the 1989 pro-democracy Tiananmen protests, Peking University students were again on the forefront of dissent; the university’s students were among those killed by government troops during the June 4 crackdown.

 

But since 1989, politics have become a harder sell at Peking University, with minders on alert for any antigovernment sentiment. Instead, party cadres have focused on instilling proper communist fervor in these elite students. On the afternoon of May 3, when Xi’s return letter was sent to the university, administrators held three different meetings to properly convey the spirit of Xi’s letter. Then on the morning of May 4, the 115th anniversary of Peking University’s establishment, the school held another meeting, catchily entitled “The forum held at Peking University to study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s reply to all the students of the school of archaeology and museology, Peking University 2009 undergraduate mission branch.”

 

The news about the May 4 forum, held on the very day that is linked to one of China’s most cherished reform movements, quickly spread on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like microblog service. (Twitter is banned in China.) Online commentators mocked the sycophantic campaign and lamented that Peking University had lost its independent, politically edgy character. “How servile PKU is,” wrote one Weibo user, using the university’s initials. “PKU is not the old PKU anymore.”

 

(PHOTOS: Hong Kong Protests Plans for ‘Patriotic’ Education)

 

Students and alumni too were incensed. “This really crossed the line,” says Hearst Ho, a 21-year-old student at Peking University. “For the university’s party cadres, the whole thing may be completely normal, but for Peking University itself, this is nothing but a humiliation.” Some alumni were spurred into action. Huang Yun, who studied ethics at Peking University from 2002 to ’06, wrote an open letter criticizing the school’s role in promoting Xi’s China dream. “When I saw the news, I felt it was really disgusting,” says Huang. “I thought we should do something more than just jeering online, so I decided to issue an open letter, telling the PKU party cadres openly that underlings fawning over their superiors is not suitable at Peking University.”

 

On the evening of May 5, Huang issued the open letter on her Sina Weibo account. “As graduates of Peking University, we are deeply shocked by our alma mater’s political flattery,” the letter opined. Says Huang: “In my opinion, the essence of Peking University’s spirit is independence and freedom of thought. By issuing the open letter, we hope we can arouse people’s memory of the old PKU spirit.”

 

As the letter circulated on Weibo, 75 other Peking University graduates joined the original signatories. Following the predictable pattern of censorship on Sina Weibo, the document was quickly deleted from Huang’s Weibo account. The university’s party cadres sprang into action as well. On May 10, Huang got a message from her school’s communist minders, asking her to “understand” what Peking University did and stop politicizing the incident.

 

(MORE: Why Are China’s Universities Losing Their Star Students?)

 

Huang, who is now a postdoctoral fellow at Nanjing University, says she does not have expectations of dramatic change resulting from the open letter. But at a time when Chinese society is becoming more political — with ordinary people expressing dissatisfaction with everything from the rich-poor gap to environmental woes — she’s committed to encouraging introspection within the Peking University community. “The business of politicians is politics, not acting as the citizens’ spiritual guru,” she says. “However in China, when someone becomes a political leader, he automatically gains a qualification as the whole nation’s mentor. If we Chinese cannot change this, we will always be spiritual slaves.”

 

And what does Huang think of the Chinese dream itself, Xi’s political slogan? “If there is a China dream, it should be freedom,” she says. “But it is a dream we still have not realized today.

 

http://world.time.com/2013/05/28/at-prestigious-peking-university-a-debate-over-the-chinese-dream/?iid=gs-main-lead



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Xi Jinping’s vision: Chasing the Chinese dream

 

China’s new leader has been quick to consolidate his power. What does he now want for his country?

 

The Economist, 05/04/13

 

THESE have been heady days for Chen Sisi, star of a song-and-dance group run by China’s nuclear-missile corps. For weeks her ballad “Chinese dream” has been topping the folk-song charts. She has performed it on state television against video backdrops of bullet trains, jets taking off from China’s newly launched aircraft-carrier and bucolic scenery. More than 1.1 m fans follow her microblog, where she tweets about the Chinese dream.

 

Ms Chen is playing her part in a barrage of dream-themed propaganda unleashed by the Communist Party. Schools have been organising Chinese-dream speaking competitions. Some have put up “dream walls” on which students can stick notes describing their visions of the future. Party officials have selected model dreamers to tour workplaces and inspire others with their achievements. Academics are being encouraged to offer “Chinese dream” research proposals. Newspapers refer to it more and more (see chart). In December state media and government researchers, purportedly on the basis of studies of its usage, declared “dream” the Chinese character of the year for 2012.

 

It was, however, one very specific usage just before that December publication which set the country dreaming. On November 29th, two weeks after his appointment as the party’s general secretary and military commander-in-chief, Xi Jinping visited the grandiose National Museum next to Tiananmen Square. Flanked by six dour-looking, dark-clad colleagues from the Politburo’s standing committee, Mr Xi told a gaggle of press and museum workers that the “greatest Chinese dream” was the “great revival of the Chinese nation”.

 

Soft places

 

The adoption of a personal slogan -- one that conveys a sense of beyond-normal wisdom and vision in a short, memorable and perhaps somewhat opaque phrase -- has been a rite of passage for all Chinese leaders since Mao Zedong. Mr Xi’s “Chinese dream” slogan is exceptional, though. Its demotic air can be read as a dig at the stodgy catchphrases of his predecessors: the “scientific-development outlook” beloved of Hu Jintao; the even more arcane “Three Represents” cherished by Mr Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin. It makes no allusion to ideology or party policy. It chimes, quite possibly deliberately, with a foreign notion -- the American dream. But it is calculated in its opacity. Previous slogans, such as Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up”, could be broadly understood in terms of policy. The dream seems designed to inspire rather than inform.

 

The symbolism of the setting in which Mr Xi first gave voice to his slogan was more telling than the words that accompanied it. The National Museum’s “Road to Revival” exhibit is a propaganda romp through China’s history since the mid-19th century. Its aim is to show China’s suffering at the hands of colonial powers in the “century of humiliation” and its eventual glorious recovery under party rule. (The millions of deaths from starvation and political strife under Mao, and the bloody crushing of anti-government unrest under Deng, go unremarked.) Mr Xi’s words implied that the Chinese dream, in contrast to its American namesake, was about something more than middle-class material comfort. His backdrop made it clear that he was flexing his muscles as a nationalist and as a party believer.

 

Since that debut in November Mr Xi has returned to the idea of the dream on many occasions. In March the Chinese dream was the main subject of his acceptance speech to the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, on being appointed state president. In early April, at an annual forum attended by foreign political and business leaders on the tropical island of Hainan, Mr Xi said the Chinese dream would be fulfilled by the middle of the century. On the following day the party’s propaganda chief, Liu Yunshan, ordered that the concept of the Chinese dream be written into school textbooks to make sure that it “enters students’ brains”.

 

Mr Xi’s repetition of the slogan, as if rallying demoralised troops, hints at the party’s sense that for all its stellar economic achievements, it is still struggling to win public affection. He has been trying to address this by talking tough on corruption (“fighting tigers and flies at the same time”) and waging war on government extravagance (only “four dishes and a soup”). To this end he has cultivated a man-of-the-people style; many believed a report in a pro-Communist Hong Kong newspaper that he had taken a ride in a Beijing taxi, until state media denied it. The dream rhetoric fits with that image.

 

It is also distinctively Mr Xi’s. The term had been used in the titles of a couple of Chinese books in recent years. It had also been used at times in foreign commentary on China’s rise. But it was not in common use before Mr Xi’s trip to the museum.

 

Tales in the sand

 

Where did the slogan come from? Quite possibly the New York Times. Last October, in the run up to Mr Xi’s ascension, the Times ran a column by Thomas Friedman entitled “China Needs Its Own Dream”. Mr Friedman said that if Mr Xi’s dream for China’s emerging middle-class was just like the American dream (“a big car, a big house and Big Macs for all”) then “another planet” would be needed. Instead he urged Mr Xi to come up with “a new Chinese dream that marries people’s expectations of prosperity with a more sustainable China.” China’s biggest-circulation newspaper, Reference News, ran a translation.

 

According to Xinhua, a government news agency, the Chinese dream “suddenly became a hot topic among commentators at home and abroad”. When Mr Xi began to use the phrase, Globe, a magazine published by Xinhua, called Mr Xi’s Chinese-dream idea “the best response to Friedman”. Zhang Ming of Renmin University says Mr Xi may have deliberately used the term as a way of improving dialogue with America, where it would be readily understood. Mr Xi had seen the American dream up close, having spent a couple of weeks in 1985 with a rural family in Iowa. (He revisited them during a trip to America last year as leader-in-waiting.)

 

That does not mean his musings on the dream have been designed to meet Mr Friedman’s appeal for more sustainable growth. Rhetorically at least, such a need was central to party policy long before the latest slogan. Mr Hu’s “scientific-development outlook” was all about being greener, even if his ten years in power saw little abatement of relentless environmental damage. Through protests and media commentary the public is pressing Mr Xi to clean up more vigorously. But he has been shy of making commitments. On November 15th, in his first speech after taking over as general secretary, Mr Xi mentioned “a better environment” toward the end of a list of what he said were the public’s wishes. Better education and more stable jobs were at the top.

 

If Mr Xi’s Chinese dream is not Mr Friedman’s, what is it?

 

So far that is being left deliberately vague. The unwritten rules of succession politics in China require Mr Xi to keep his policy preferences close to his chest at the beginning of his term in office, and to stick to the guidelines laid down by his predecessors. He is all but obliged to work towards the targets of the five-year economic plan that was adopted under Mr Hu in 2011 (which is strong on the need for more environmentally friendly growth). He has to stick to the party’s longer-term plans as well: the attainment of a “moderately well-off society” by the time of the party’s 100th birthday in 2021 (one year before Mr Xi would have to retire); the creation of a “rich, strong, democratic, civilised and harmonious socialist modern country” by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist nation. (The meaning of these words has never been made clear, but officials are explicit that “democratic” does not involve multi-party politics.) If precedent is any guide, Mr Xi would not begin to start any serious tinkering with policy until a meeting of the party’s central committee in the autumn, a year after his assumption of power.

 

The vagueness of the “Chinese dream” slogan allows Mr Xi to embrace these inherited aims while hinting that, under his rule, change is possible. But the lack of specificity also carries risks. It provides a space in which the Chinese can think of their own dreams -- which may not coincide with Mr Xi’s. Since November the term has not merely been promulgated. It has been discussed and even argued about across the political spectrum, both in articles published by the official media and in outpourings online. In effect, the public is defining the dream by itself.

 

Nationalists see their own dreams validated. To them the tall and portly Mr Xi represents a new vigour in Chinese politics after Mr Hu’s studied greyness. His talk of China’s revival plays to their sense that China has a rightful place at the top of the global pecking-order.

 

In 1820, as some historians reckon and Chinese commentators like to point out, China’s GDP was one-third of the world total. Then the reversals of the century of humiliation brought it low. By the 1960s, China’s GDP had dropped to just 4% of the world total. Now it has recovered to about one-sixth of the world’s GDP -- and at least 90% of America’s -- in purchasing-power parity terms, according to the Conference Board, a business research organisation. Nationalists eagerly await the day when China’s economy becomes once more the biggest in the world by any measure, a day which many observers expect to dawn while Mr Xi is still leader.

 

Mr Xi appears anxious to secure the support of nationalists, particularly within the armed forces, and dream-talk helps. In December, during an inspection tour of the navy in southern China, Mr Xi spoke of a “strong-army dream” and said that resolutely obeying the party’s orders was the “spirit of a strong army” -- a swipe at liberals who argue that the army should be removed from the party’s direct control. In March the army issued a circular to troops saying that the “strong-nation dream of a great revival of the Chinese people” was in effect a “strong-army dream”.

 

Sound and fury

 

Nationalist hawks, especially military ones, are a constituency Mr Xi cannot ignore. In recent years their views have been expressed far more openly thanks to an easing of controls on publishing by officers. Shortly after Mr Xi first spoke of the Chinese dream in November, the publishers of a 2010 book called “China Dream: Great Power Thinking and Strategic Posture in the Post-American Era” rushed to bring out a new edition. The official media, happy to discuss Mr Friedman’s prior use of the dream notion, have made no suggestion that the book has any connection to Mr Xi’s slogan. But it is the most prominently displayed work on the dream theme in a large state-owned bookshop near Tiananmen Square. The book’s author, Liu Mingfu, a senior colonel, argues that China should regain its position as the most powerful nation in the world, a position it had held for a thousand years before its humiliation.

 

Mr Xi prefers to avoid any public talk of surpassing American power. During a trip to Russia in March (his first foreign excursion as president) he said fulfilment of the Chinese dream would benefit all countries. But as Henry Kissinger suggests in his 2011 book “On China”, Mr Liu’s views reflect “at least some portion of China’s institutional structure”. As tensions roil with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines over maritime territorial claims, the role of these shadowy figures among China’s security policymakers is a topic of much speculation. Mr Xi has not been helping to clear the air (see Banyan).

 

China’s chest-thumping has not been restricted to its neighbours. While contriving not to mention America by name, an April white paper on defence carped about its security “pivot” towards Asia making the situation in the region “tenser”. The state-controlled media went further. China Daily, a Beijing newspaper, quoted “military experts” as saying that the Chinese government had no problem with America seeking involvement in the region’s prosperity. But China was concerned, it said, that America’s renewed focus on its alliances in Asia “might be aimed at China and disturb the ‘Chinese dream’ of national rejuvenation.”

 

The white paper was released just after John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, visited Beijing in April. The trip was aimed at reassuring China of America’s commitment to good relations following the re-election of Barack Obama and the handover to Mr Xi. “You’ve all heard of the American dream,” Mr Kerry said in Tokyo after leaving Beijing. “Now Beijing’s new leader has introduced what he calls a ‘China dream’.” Mr Kerry tried to reconcile the two by proposing that America, China and other countries work towards a “Pacific dream” of co-operation on issues ranging from job growth and climate change to pandemic disease and proliferation.

 

But this suggestion did little to abate the two countries’ mutual wariness. The idea of a Pacific dream, said one Chinese commentator, was an attempt to spread the American dream into every corner of Asia in order to ensure that “America’s dominance of this region will never pass into another’s hands”. To Chinese nationalists that is more like a nightmare.

 

Although Mr Xi doubtless feels a need to play towards such sentiments, he probably shares his predecessor’s wariness towards at least some of their proponents. China’s modern history offers many examples of anti-government movements cloaked in nationalist garb. And his dream-talk is clearly also intended for a wider audience. While his speech in November on the Chinese dream appealed to the nationalist cause, by March his language had turned softer. “In the end the Chinese dream is the people’s dream,” he said at the National People’s Congress, omitting any reference to the century of humiliation. (Around this time the English-language media, which initially went back and forth, plumped for “Chinese dream” over “China dream” as a translation, thus subtly emphasising the people over the nation.) An article published by Caixin Media, a Beijing news portal, said there was “nothing short of a competition between the American dream and the Chinese dream”. But it said China needed to address this by boosting its “moral appeal to others”. Doveish voices abound in China too.

 

Playing house

 

By tangentially evoking the American dream with his language, Mr Xi may be trying to reassure the country’s new middle-class, a constituency that could present a powerful challenge to party rule if it becomes seriously disaffected. Officials predict that economic growth will be slower under Mr Xi than it was under Mr Hu. Mr Xi is suggesting that this will not mean a tightening of middle-class belts.

 

Li Chunling, a specialist in middle-class studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says that the dream of China’s wealthier middle-class members is to live like their American counterparts (and to see them in action: hence a surging enthusiasm for travel abroad). Mr Xi would not want to let them down. But Ms Li suggests this will be hard. Among the better-off, worries about China’s development in the coming years, including risks related to pollution and social unrest, are prompting growing numbers to emigrate, she says.

 

Mr Xi will face difficulty selling the idea that China can be “rich and strong” while remaining a one-party state. According to Zhang Qianfan, a liberal legal scholar at Peking University, “more than three-quarters [of the Chinese] would associate the Chinese dream with a dream of constitutionalism”. “Constitutionalism” is the belief that the constitution -- which, except in its preamble, does not mention any role for the party itself -- should have an authority that overrides the whims of the party. In January a state-controlled newspaper, Southern Weekend, tried to publish a new-year message entitled “The Chinese dream: a dream of constitutionalism”. Only with a division of powers, said one passage, could China become a “free and strong country”. The article was replaced with a censored version -- entitled “The Chinese dream is nearer to us than ever before” -- stripped of the original’s comments on the importance of the constitution. Several journalists went on strike in protest.

 

Mr Xi has spoken of the importance of the constitution, but he has not mentioned “constitutionalism” -- and he has avoided the use of the word “free” when talking about the dream. In unpublished remarks made during his trip to southern China in December, and later leaked by a journalist, Mr Xi said: “The Chinese dream is an ideal. Communists should have a higher ideal, and that is communism.” He said the reason for the Soviet Union’s collapse was its straying from ideological orthodoxy. In other words, he would be no Gorbachev.

But Mr Xi’s talk of a dream will always run the risk of sharpening appetites for change. Mr Zhang says that 150 people, many of them prominent scholars, have signed a petition for full implementation of the constitution that he launched last December. In late March People’s Forum, a website run by the People’s Daily, the party’s main mouthpiece, tried to gauge public support for Mr Xi’s dream by carrying out an online survey. The “Chinese dream” slogan, it said in an introduction, had “reignited hopes for the great revival of the Chinese nation”. The page was quickly deleted after around 80% of more than 3,000 respondents replied “no” to questions such as whether they supported one-party rule and believed in socialism.

 

According to Ms Chen’s rather syrupy song, the Chinese dream is “A dream of a strong nation…a dream of a wealthy people”. Mr Xi seems of the same opinion -- and has, as yet, been little more specific. In the absence of substance, Mr Xi’s talk of a dream is creating space for a lively debate over where China should be heading. For the time being it may suit Mr Xi to keep the course he will be following unclear. But demands for clarity can only grow louder.

 

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21577063-chinas-new-leader-has-been-quick-consolidate-his-power-what-does-he-now-want-his?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709



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Xi Jinping and the Chinese dream

 

The vision of China’s new president should serve his people, not a nationalist state

 

The Economist, 05/04/13

 

IN 1793 a British envoy, Lord Macartney, arrived at the court of the Chinese emperor, hoping to open an embassy. He brought with him a selection of gifts from his newly industrialising nation. The Qianlong emperor, whose country then accounted for about a third of global GDP, swatted him away: “Your sincere humility and obedience can clearly be seen,” he wrote to King George III, but we do not have “the slightest need for your country’s manufactures”. The British returned in the 1830s with gunboats to force trade open, and China’s attempts at reform ended in collapse, humiliation and, eventually, Maoism.

 

China has made an extraordinary journey along the road back to greatness. Hundreds of millions have lifted themselves out of poverty, hundreds of millions more have joined the new middle class. It is on the verge of reclaiming what it sees as its rightful position in the world. China’s global influence is expanding and within a decade its economy is expected to overtake America’s. In his first weeks in power, the new head of the ruling Communist Party, Xi Jinping, has evoked that rise with a new slogan which he is using, as belief in Marxism dies, to unite an increasingly diverse nation. He calls his new doctrine the “Chinese dream” evoking its American equivalent. Such slogans matter enormously in China (see article). News bulletins are full of his dream. Schools organise speaking competitions about it. A talent show on television is looking for “The Voice of the Chinese Dream”.

 

Countries, like people, should dream. But what exactly is Mr Xi’s vision? It seems to include some American-style aspiration, which is welcome, but also a troubling whiff of nationalism and of repackaged authoritarianism.

 

The end of ideology

 

Since the humiliations of the 19th century, China’s goals have been wealth and strength. Mao Zedong tried to attain them through Marxism. For Deng Xiaoping and his successors, ideology was more flexible (though party control was absolute). Jiang Zemin’s theory of the “Three Represents” said the party must embody the changed society, allowing private businessmen to join the party. Hu Jintao pushed the “scientific-development outlook” and “harmonious development” to deal with the disharmony created by the yawning wealth gap.

 

Now, though, comes a new leader with a new style and a popular photogenic wife. Mr Xi talks of reform; he has launched a campaign against official extravagance. Even short of detail, his dream is different from anything that has come before. Compared with his predecessors’ stodgy ideologies, it unashamedly appeals to the emotions. Under Mao, the party assaulted anything old and erased the imperial past, now Mr Xi’s emphasis on national greatness has made party leaders heirs to the dynasts of the 18th century, when Qing emperors demanded that Western envoys kowtow (Macartney refused).

 

But there is also plainly practical politics at work. With growth slowing, Mr Xi’s patriotic doctrine looks as if it is designed chiefly to serve as a new source of legitimacy for the Communist Party. It is no coincidence that Mr Xi’s first mention of his dream of “the great revival of the Chinese nation” came in November in a speech at the national museum in Tiananmen Square, where an exhibition called “Road to Revival” lays out China’s suffering at the hands of colonial powers and its rescue by the Communist Party.

 

Dream a little dream of Xi

 

Nobody doubts that Mr Xi’s priority will be to keep the economy growing -- the country’s leaders talk about it taking decades for their poor nation to catch up with the much richer Americans -- and that means opening up China even more. But his dream has two clear dangers.

 

One is of nationalism. A long-standing sense of historical victimhood means that the rhetoric of a resurgent nation could all too easily turn nasty. As skirmishes and provocations increase in the neighbouring seas (see Banyan), patriotic microbloggers need no encouragement to demand that the Japanese are taught a humiliating lesson. Mr Xi is already playing to the armed forces. In December, on an inspection tour of the navy in southern China, he spoke of a “strong-army dream”. The armed forces are delighted by such talk. Even if Mr Xi’s main aim in pandering to hawks is just to keep them on side, the fear is that it presages a more belligerent stance in East Asia. Nobody should mind a confident China at ease with itself, but a country transformed from a colonial victim to a bully itching to settle scores with Japan would bring great harm to the region -- including to China itself.

 

The other risk is that the Chinese dream ends up handing more power to the party than to the people. In November Mr Xi echoed the American dream, declaring that “To meet [our people’s] desire for a happy life is our mission.” Ordinary Chinese citizens are no less ambitious than Americans to own a home (see article), send a child to university or just have fun (see article). But Mr Xi’s main focus seems to be on strengthening the party’s absolute claim on power. The “spirit of a strong army”, he told the navy, lay in resolutely obeying the party’s orders. Even if the Chinese dream avoids Communist rhetoric, Mr Xi has made it clear that he believes the Soviet Union collapsed because the Communist Party there strayed from ideological orthodoxy and rigid discipline. “The Chinese dream”, he has said, “is an ideal. Communists should have a higher ideal, and that is Communism.”

 

A fundamental test of Mr Xi’s vision will be his attitude to the rule of law. The good side of the dream needs it: the economy, the happiness of his people and China’s real strength depend on arbitrary power being curtailed. But corruption and official excess will be curbed only when the constitution becomes more powerful than the party. This message was spelled out in an editorial in a reformist newspaper on January 1st, entitled “The Dream of Constitutionalism”. The editorial called for China to use the rule of law to become a “free and strong country”. But the censors changed the article at the last minute and struck out its title. If that is the true expression of Mr Xi’s dream, then China still has a long journey ahead.

 

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21577070-vision-chinas-new-president-should-serve-his-people-not-nationalist-state-xi-jinping?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709



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