China starts formal criminal probe into politician Bo Xilai

Ben Blanchard/Sui-Lee Wee, Reuters10/2612

BEIJING (Reuters) - China moved quickly on Friday to announce it had formally begun a criminal probe into disgraced former senior politician Bo Xilai, hours after expelling him from the largely rubber stamp parliament and so removing his immunity from prosecution.

The announcements pave the way for Bo, once a contender for top leadership in the world's second largest economy, to face trial and likely a long jail sentence on accusations of corruption and abuse of power.

A brief report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said state prosecutors had "decided to put Bo Xilai under investigation for alleged criminal offences".

It added that they had "imposed coercive measures on him in accordance with the law", likely a reference that he was now officially in detention.

Bo's wife, Gu Kailai, and his former police chief, Wang Lijun, have both been jailed over a scandal that stems from the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood while Bo was Communist Party chief of the southwestern city of Chongqing.

The government last month accused Bo of corruption and of bending the law to hush up the murder.

The latest move comes a fortnight before the Communist Party holds a congress, which opens on November 8, that will unveil the country's new central leadership.

Bo, 63, was widely seen as pursuing a powerful spot in the new leadership before his career unraveled after Wang fled to a U.S. consulate for more than 24 hours in February and alleged that Bo's wife had poisoned Heywood.

Bo, a former commerce minister, used his post in Chongqing since 2007 to cast the sprawling, haze-covered municipality into a showcase for his mix of populist policies and bold spending plans that won support from leftists yearning for a charismatic leader.

Xinhua provided no other details, such as what charges Bo may face, saying only that the investigation was under way.

Earlier in the day, Xinhua said the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's parliament, "announced the termination of Bo Xilai's post" as the deputy to the parliament.

As a member of that body he had enjoyed immunity from prosecution.

Before Bo is charged and tried, investigators must first complete an inquiry and indict him, but China's prosecutors and courts come under party control and are unlikely to challenge the accusations.

"THEATRE"

A lawyer for Bo, who has been employed by the family to represent him, said on Thursday he was unable to say whether the government would allow him to represent Bo when the case comes to trial.

"It's theatre," said Nicholas Bequelin, a researcher at Human Rights Watch, a New York-based advocacy group, who spoke before Bo's expulsion and criminal probe were announced.

"The judiciary grinds into action only when the outcome has been determined. There is no indication we will see a genuine trial because Bo knows too much."

An official account of Wang's trial in September said Wang fled to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu, southwest China, after Bo beat him and stripped him of his police job following Wang's decision to confront Bo with the murder allegations against Gu.

Wang had spearheaded Bo's controversial campaign against organized crime, a prominent plank in Bo's barely concealed campaign to join the topmost ranks of the Communist Party.

Bo was dismissed from his Chongqing post in March, and suspended from the party's top ranks in April, when his wife was named as an official suspect in the murder in November of Heywood, a long-time friend of the couple who also helped their son Bo Guagua settle into study in Britain.

Bo has disappeared from public view since he was dismissed and has not had a chance to respond publicly to the accusations against him.

The removal of Bo has disrupted the Communist Party's usually secretive and carefully choreographed process of settling on a new central leadership.

Sharply dressed and courting publicity, Bo stood out in a party of stolid conformists, and he promoted Chongqing as a bold egalitarian alternative to China's current pattern of growth.

But Bo's promotion of "red" culture inspired by Mao Zedong's era and his campaign-style crackdown on crime prompted fears that he was rekindling some of the arbitrary lawlessness of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s - a criticism that Premier Wen Jiabao spelled out before the public in mid-March.

(Additional reporting by Michael Martina; Editing by Alison Williams)

http://news.yahoo.com/china-starts-formal-criminal-probe-bo-xilai-161347009--business.html

上次忘了談談「路線」議題，補充一下。

我認為「路線」一詞有兩個「所指」。一是基於「目的」或「目的地」不同而來的「路線分歧」或「路線之爭」；二是基於對現實有不同的了解，而產生在「策略」或「方法」上有不同選擇或偏重的「路線分歧」或「路線之爭」。

在(溝通)理論上，如果有一個共同的基礎(如「目的」或「目的地」)，則歧異的雙方可以使用理性方式來化解或消除歧異。即使不是「揖讓而升下而飲。」，至少可以使用就事論事、依理說理、和言而有據的方式來思考、溝通、或論辯。

當「路線之爭」演變成「革命」(「文化」或暴力)的時候，這個「路線」其實是「權力」的代用詞或我說的「羊頭」。

中共領導人在政治目的(維持「一黨專政」)和經濟目的(「保七」、「保八」、或「保九」等等)上並無分歧。因此，一般網路評論所稱(中共內部)的「路線之爭」，或者是方法或手段(包裝、姿態高低、...)的分別，或者是「資源分配權」的爭奪(相當於「狗搶骨頭」)，或者只不過是場爭取「入常」門票的「政治表演」？

謝謝YS兄的指正。

我一向關切中國大陸事務。在我的部落格中有一個【中國脈動錄】的區塊，轉貼一些網路上看到的報導和評論。最近的系列有：【中共發展觀察】、【關於「中國模式」的討論】、【中國發展路線的討論】等等。「王立軍事件」發生後，我也開了【王立軍事件】這一欄。還有許多其他的訊息/評論。《淺談》一文是對這些報導和評論的綜合整理並表達一些淺見。你說的「跳躍」應該是information overload的結果。至於你提到「似乎沒有什麼邏輯關聯」那一段文字，則的確是我沒有交代清楚。

首先，我在The Tentative Rise of China's Reformists一文中，看到Iain Mills列舉了中國大陸最近在金融方面的新政策和措施以及他的相關評論(http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11879/the-tentative-rise-of-chinas-reformists)；然後我在MS轉貼的文章中，看到Lin Chun女士就這些措施所做的評論(“The current crisis may be the last milestone in the Chinese path of negating socialism.”)。我的那段觀點是針對Ms Lin的評論而發。兩、三年前，我大概會說清楚；現在寫文章以自娛為主，精神不怎麼集中，也懶得找尋和註明資訊來源，在嚴謹度上的確差了很多。

我同意你所指出「市場機制」(或「資本主義」)的優勢在誘導、鼓勵、或逼迫「創新」。這是在馬克思合理(但不等於「準確」)的預言「資本主義」會崩潰近150年後，它仍然sitting pretty的原因(這是熊彼得的解釋)。

我不認為中共領導人有「社會主義的理想」，他/她們都是唯物主義者和務實主義者；前者by education，後者by training and experience。在中國目前的社會和政治生態中，如果一個人有「理想」或「溫情主義」的包袱，我相信他/她混不到省/部級的職位。只是他/她們的仕途或錢途跟他/她們的政績有正相關的關係，這是中共黨員和官員很努力為「人民」服務的主要原因。上面的評論沒有否定或諷刺的意味，而是恭維和肯定。我本人就以唯物主義者和務實主義者自居和自許。

我區分做為政治理想或藍圖的「社會主義」以及做為經濟政策的「社會主義」。我支持前者，拋棄後者。

我想貪污自古有之。從採集/狩獵社會開始，一定有很多人偷拿一份自己份外的食物。或者等肚子餓了時充飢；或者用來做援交的代價。貪污在「市場機制」下之所以氾濫成災，相對而言，一來因為機會多，二來因為不容易被抓到，三來不貪污搞外快，就被隔壁的Jones’s或Smith’s比下去了。

貪污是防止或消滅不了的。老百姓只能靠監督、制衡、法治等等機制來降低它發生的機率和企圖貪污者的報酬率。

至於「三客流」一詞，是我和陳水扁的文字御林軍論戰所創造的術語。現在偶而沿用，應該是習慣使然。另一方面，顧亭林說：

「士大夫之無恥，是謂國恥。」

…

只有一小段前一半與後一半之間，似乎沒有什麼邏輯關聯？我覺得似乎思想有些跳躍。我指的是：

“我不知道「資本主義」是否鴉片煙，越抽越想抽。但如果中國領導人跟我一樣是個不折不扣的唯物主義者，則他/她們最近所宣佈的金融開放政策與步驟，應該有他/她們不得不如此的原因。至少，從過去30多年來的表現和成就看來，我相信中共領導人這些決策也是深思熟慮和衡量各種選項後的結果。”

不懂何謂三客流？是否可以略去此詞，或者加以解釋。

我同意兄的兩點結論。但是不完全同意兄的看法。

例如汪洋與薄熙來的做法與理念顯然還是有相當大的不同。前者似乎主張更加開放，更鼓勵創新，而不是比誰更能借到銀行的錢，更能大手筆的花出去。汪洋似乎看到了資本主義的真正優點或者厲害的地方，而薄以及捧薄的烏有之鄉之流顯然沒有。烏有之鄉以及某些左派朋友們似乎只看見資本主義的剝削的一面，而沒有看見或者假裝沒看見資本主義真正厲害的，也是對人類最有貢獻的一面，就是不止容許並且鼓勵創新。創新與剝削都能提高生產力，但是長遠看，創新的效果大得多。所以兄說廣東與四川與中央的路線都差不多，愚見以為，也許太皮相了？

我不敢斷言中國實施的就是資本主義。就說貪腐吧，也不能說一定就是資本主義的特色。前資本主義的人類世界就沒有嚴重或者不嚴重的貪腐嗎？

我沒有證據或者統計資料。可是我傾向於相信，中國今日的上層領導人，還是有若干社會主義的理想的。只是他們不知道怎麼做，還在摸索，還在摸著石頭過河。

如兄所提到，各個所謂社會主義國家的經驗相當慘痛，生產力搞不上去，無法和資本主義國家競爭。分配的比較好，但是不能不建立起龐大的官僚制度來執行這個社會福利制度，於是又容易成為僵化與貪腐的溫床。三十多年來學習資本主義，利用市場化來提高生產力，得到相當大成就。可是在市場上競爭，若不能創新，則只能靠剝削來提高生產力，如何能夠長久競爭？所以，即使不談薄熙來有無假大空以及薄熙來有無嚴重貪腐，光是路線不同，也是關係中國未來的大問題。

如果創新的程度提高，則剝削的程度可以降低，依然達到以及維持較高或者更高的生產力。在這種高生產力情形下，來搞財富的合理分配或者再分配，才能真正實行社會主義的理想。

 -- 這是另一論壇中一位朋友的指教。標題是我加上的。 -- 卜凱

当然，中共不会轻易说出事情的全部，但毫无疑问是最可靠的消息

次可靠的是某些小道消息，可靠层度看消息来源。某些固定人士的消息也应该有相当的可靠

最不可靠的是网上没有来源，或来源含糊的消息，很多肯定是出于政治斗争，其恶劣层度建国以来就没有见过，完全就是美国人的造谣手法

建国以来，大陆人只 同情过 俩个罪犯同情过，一个是造高铁的铁道部长刘志军，再一个就是这个薄熙来了。薄是个争议人物，他的某些做法即使支持者也不会同意，但他打黑和社会福利俩件事很得民心，以致中共也不得不说明，倒薄和薄的路线没有关系。你说的严控思想是你的臆想吧？没有这事

开始我也不相信有什么路线斗争，但这种大规模的造谣抹黑让我相信肯定是出于对薄类似文革时期的做法的恐惧，那些高喊民主自由的人士在整政治对手的时候，那些手法着实让人看不过眼，与他们的嘴里的高调似乎风马牛不相及

权力斗争肯定是有的，这是中共现在体制的一个很大弱点。江胡接班的时候就出过事，这次又出一次，这俩次事应该是促成中共政治改革的最大动力。但胡的任期快到了，应该不会有大动作，也不宜有大动作，我预计会在下任习的任期开始

世界上很多事都是只有到了不得不的时候才有可能开始

至于如何政改是个让人好奇的地方。我知道的中共政改有俩个思路，一个是中共自己分裂成两个政党或派别；一个就是党内选举；我个人倾向中共会选择党内选举，原因很简单，这是风险最小的办法。具体如何媒体上事先应该会有讨论

其实政改这事外部的叫好应该比大陆内部多，原因很简单，大陆百姓没那么政治化，这正好和台湾形成强烈对比，这某种层度说明了中共执政的成功，只有在执政失败的地方民主的诉求才会特别强烈