Egypt's army ousts Morsi, who calls it a 'coup'

HAMZA HENDAWI, MAGGIE MICHAEL and SARAH EL DEEB, 07/04/13

CAIRO (AP) — Egypt's first democratically elected president was overthrown by the military Wednesday, ousted after just one year in office by the same kind of Arab Spring uprising that brought the Islamist leader to power.

The armed forces announced they would install a temporary civilian government to replace Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, who denounced the action as a "full coup" by the generals. They also suspended the Islamist-drafted constitution and called for new elections.

Millions of anti-Morsi protesters around the country erupted in celebrations after the televised announcement by the army chief. Fireworks burst over crowds in Cairo's Tahrir Square, where men and women danced, shouting, "God is great" and "Long live Egypt."

Fearing a violent reaction by Morsi's Islamist supporters, troops and armored vehicles deployed in the streets of Cairo and elsewhere, surrounding Islamist rallies. Clashes erupted in several provincial cities when Islamists opened fire on police, with at least nine people killed, security officials said.

Gehad el-Haddad, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood party, said Morsi was under house arrest at a Presidential Guard facility where he had been residing, and 12 presidential aides also were under house arrest.

The army took control of state media and blacked out TV stations operated by the Muslim Brotherhood. The head of the Brotherhood's political wing was arrested.

The ouster of Morsi throws Egypt on an uncertain course, with a danger of further confrontation. It came after four days of mass demonstrations even larger than those of the 2011 Arab Spring that toppled longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak.

Egyptians were angered that Morsi was giving too much power to his Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists and had failed to tackle the country's mounting economic woes.

Beyond the fears over violence, some protesters are concerned whether an army-installed administration can lead to real democracy.

President Barack Obama urged the military to hand back control to a democratic, civilian government as soon as possible but stopped short of calling it a coup d'etat.

He said he was "deeply concerned" by the military's move to topple Morsi's government and suspend Egypt's constitution. He said he was ordering the U.S. government to assess what the military's actions meant for U.S. foreign aid to Egypt — $1.5 billion a year in military and economic assistance.

The U.S. wasn't taking sides in the conflict, committing itself only to democracy and respect for the rule of law, Obama said.

On Monday, army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi had given Morsi an ultimatum to find a solution to meet the demands of anti-government demonstrators in 48 hours, but the 62-year-old former engineer defiantly insisted on his legitimacy from an election he won with 51.7 percent of the vote in June 2012.

Any deal was a near impossibility, however, making it inevitable the military would move.

As the deadline approached, el-Sissi met with pro-reform leader Mohammed ElBaradei, top Muslim cleric Sheik Ahmed el-Tayeb and Coptic Pope Tawadros II, as well as opposition activists and some members of the ultraconservative Salafi movements. The consultations apparently were aimed at bringing as wide a consensus as possible behind the army's moves.

The Brotherhood boycotted the session, according to its political arm the Freedom and Justice Party.

In a last-minute statement before the deadline, Morsi again rejected the military's intervention, saying abiding by his electoral legitimacy was the only way to prevent violence. He criticized the military for "taking only one side."

"One mistake that cannot be accepted, and I say this as president of all Egyptians, is to take sides," he said in the statement issued by his office. "Justice dictates that the voice of the masses from all squares should be heard," he said, repeating his offer to hold dialogue with his opponents.

"For the sake of Egypt and for historical accuracy, let's call what is happening by its real name: Military coup," Morsi's top foreign policy adviser Essam al-Haddad wrote on his Facebook page.

After the deadline expired, el-Sissi went on state TV and said the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, would step in as interim president until new elections are held. Mansour was appointed to the court by Mubarak but elevated to the chief justice post by Morsi and will be sworn in Thursday by judges of his court.

Flanked by Muslim and Christian clerics as well as ElBaradei and two opposition activists, el-Sissi said a government of technocrats would be formed with "full powers" to run the country.

He promised "not to exclude anyone or any movement" from further steps. But he did not define the length of the transition period or when presidential elections would be held. He also did not mention any role for the military.

The constitution, drafted by Morsi's Islamist allies, was "temporarily suspended," and a panel of experts and representatives of all political movements will consider amendments, el-Sissi said. He did not say whether a referendum would be held to ratify the changes, as customary.

ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and the former head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, said he hoped the military plan "is the beginning of a new launch for the Jan. 25 revolution when people offered their dearest to restore their freedom, dignity and social justice for every Egyptian."

Also appearing with el-Sissi was Mahmoud Badr, one of two representatives of Tamarod, or Rebel — the youth opposition movement that engineered the latest wave of protests. He urged protesters "to stay in the squares to protect what we have won."

After the speech, fireworks burst over crowds dancing and waving flags in Cairo's Tahrir Square, epicenter of the 2011 uprising. Now it was one of multiple centers of a stunning four-day anti-Morsi revolt that brought out the biggest anti-government rallies Egypt has seen.

"Don't ask me if I am happy. Just look around you at all those people, young and old. They are all happy," said 25-year-old Mohammed Nageh, shouting to be heard in Tahrir. "For the first time, people have really won their liberty."

A statement from Morsi's office's Twitter account quoted Morsi as saying the military's measures "represent a full coup categorically rejected by all the free men of our nation."

The army insisted it is not carrying out a coup, but acting on the will of the people to clear the way for a new leadership. El-Sissi warned that the armed forces, police will deal "decisively" with violence.

Some of Morsi's Islamist backers, tens of thousands of whom took to the streets in recent days, have vowed to fight to the end, although he urged everyone "to adhere to peacefulness and avoid shedding blood of fellow countrymen."

"Down with the rule of the military!" some of them chanted after el-Sissi's speech, reviving a chant used by leftist revolutionaries during the nearly 17 months of direct military rule that followed Mubarak's removal.

El-Sissi warned that the armed forces and police will deal "decisively" with violence.

The army deployed troops, commandos and armored vehicles around the country. In Cairo, they were stationed on bridges over the Nile and at major intersections. They also surrounded rallies being held by Morsi's supporters — an apparent move to contain them.

After the military's 9:20 p.m. announcement, the Brotherhood's TV station went black. Islamist TV networks that have been accused of inciting violence also went off the air and some of their prominent anchors have been arrested, according to security officials speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Security forces stormed the studio of Al-Jazeera Misr Mubasher and detained the staffers. The station, a branch of Qatari-run Al-Jazeera TV, has maintained a generally pro-Morsi line.

Travel bans were imposed on Morsi and top figures from the Muslim Brotherhood including its chief Mohammed Badie and his powerful deputy Khairat el-Shater. Officials said security forces had surrounded Badie inside a tourist compound where he had been staying in the Mediterranean coastal city of Marsa Matrouh, near the Libyan border.

A security official said Saad el-Katatni, the head of the Freedom and Justice Party, and Rashad Bayoumi, one of two deputies of the Brotherhood's top leader, were arrested early Thursday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the press.

El-Haddad, the Brotherhood party's spokesman, said a list has been drawn up of hundreds of Brotherhood members believed wanted for arrest, including himself.

"We don't know the details. The army is not giving details," he told The Associated Press. "It is a full-fledged coup and it is turning into a bloody one too. They are arresting everybody."

Police shot dead six Islamists who opened fire on Marsa Matrouh's police headquarters as they drove past. Morsi supporters tried to storm a police station in the southern city of Minya, but where battled back by police, killing three, while other Islamists destroyed cars and shops and threw stones at a church in the nearby city of Deir Mawas, while police fired tear gas at them. Police and armed Morsi supporters also battled in the southern city of Assiut, another Islamist stronghold.

Nearly 50 people have been killed in clashes between Morsi supporters and opponents since Sunday.

Morsi took office vowing to move beyond his roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, but his presidency threw the country into deep polarization. Those who took to the streets this week say he lost his electoral legitimacy because he tried to give the Brotherhood and Islamist allies a monopoly on power, pushed through a constitution largely written by his allies and mismanaged the country's multiple crises.

"Now we want a president who would really be the president of all Egyptians and will work for the country," according to Said Shahin, a 19-year-old protester in Tahrir. He fell to the ground to pray as soon as el-Sissi spoke.

Badr, the Tamarod movement spokesman, praised the crowds in the streets saying, they succeeded in "putting your revolution back on track."

"Let's start a new page, a new page based on participation," he wrote on his Twitter account. "Our hand is extended to all."

Morsi and his allies say the opposition never accepted their appeals for dialogue — seen by opponents as empty gestures — and that Mubarak loyalists throughout the government sabotaged their attempts to bring change.

Rizk Gamil, a 44-year-old driver, brought his wife to Tahrir to celebrate after el-Sissi announcement. "Today is a day of joy. Today is the day we liberated Egypt from Brotherhood occupation," he said.

A major question now is whether the Brotherhood and other Islamists will push back against the new, military-installed system or can be drawn into it.

Associated Press reporters Tony G. Gabriel and Mariam Rizk contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/egypts-army-ousts-morsi-calls-coup-010531275.html

Egypt’s Morsi Faces Political D-Day One Year After Being Sworn in as President

Ashraf Khalil, The Time 06/28/13

Sunday will mark the one-year anniversary of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi’s inauguration. It will be met not by celebration but by nationwide anxiety and large-scale  --  possibly violent  --  protests. Egypt’s opposition is planning far more than an expression of dissatisfaction; protesters see the demonstrations as the start of a push bring Morsi’s four-year term to a premature end.

There’s intense internal debate over how that would actually work -- one opposition wing wants to force Morsi to resign through sustained peaceful protest while another openly favors partnering with the military in a quasi-coup. Either way, opposition thinking has coalesced around one demand: Morsi, a former senior official in the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, must go.

The condemnation comes from many camps. This week, revolutionary icon and alumnus of the TIME 100, Wael Ghonim, who supported Morsi a year ago, launched a broadside on Youtube - accusing Morsi of polarizing and crippling the nation and calling for him to resign.

“No country advances when the society is divided like this,” said Ghonim, one of the planners of the revolution. “And the main role of the president of the republic is to unite, but, unfortunately, Dr. Morsi, the president of the republic, has miserably failed to do this.”

It’s a remarkable turn-around for a man who is his country’s first democratically elected civilian president. He was elected in what observers considered free and open elections and his victory was greeted with joy and relief by thousands after the toppling of former President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. So what has gone wrong for Morsi? Here’s a breakdown of the Egyptian premier’s failings over the course of a contentious year:

Consensus Building

Arguably this should have been Morsi’s top priority, when he found himself at the helm of a wounded and fragile nation struggling toward an uncertain democratic future. It hasn’t gone well.

Morsi’s first year has spawned a tremendous amount of bad blood between his government and the non-Islamist opposition. Most worrying for Morsi is that many of the moderate activists and revolutionaries who publicly advocated working with him have since lost faith in his ability to rule.

“I went through three stages with him,” says Hisham Kassem, a veteran human rights activists and independent publisher who admits to celebrating Morsi’s victory over Mubarak-era Prime Minister and former Air Force commander Ahmed Shafiq a year ago. “One was, ‘Give him a chance’. Two was, ‘I’m disappointed’. Three, after the constitutional disaster, was ‘Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are a threat and a menace to democracy.’”

The true breaking point for many was Morsi’s handling of the constitution late last year. Secularists complained from the start of the process that the 100-member Constituent Assembly drafting the document was hopelessly stacked with Brotherhood cadres and their Salafist allies. It all culminated in Morsi’s late November powerplay: he protected the Assembly from dissolution by Egypt’s activist judges and rail-roaded a January constitutional referendum that approved the document over the screams of the opposition.

For Morsi’s critics it, was the point of no return. And the effect on the Egyptian political scene was catastrophic. All positive lines of communication were seemingly broken; decades-long bipartisan friendships between Islamists and secularists -- relationships forged when both sides were fighting Mubarak together -- ended.

For Morsi’s backers, however, the constitutional maneuvering was necessary to head off a cabal of senior judges determined to undo all the gains of the revolution.

“I know it was unpopular and [Morsi] has paid a price for it, but it was all necessary. The opposition needs to stop acting like the constitution was the end of the world,” says Islam Abdel Rahman, a foreign affairs analyst for the Brotherhood-affiliated Freedom and Justice Party. Referring to the Tamarod (Rebel) grassroots petition campaign, which claims to have gathered 15 million signatures calling for Morsi’s resignation, Abdel Rahman said: “If they really have 15 million signatures, they should be taking that support and focusing on parliamentary elections later this year and the next presidential vote in 2016.”

Since the constitutional crisis, Morsi has played almost exclusively to his Islamist base. His most recent public appearance -- a June 26 address to his nervous nation -- was a classic example. Morsi spent most of the 150-minute speech complaining about the opposition’s refusal to work with him and openly playing to the cheering Brotherhood supporters who packed the conference hall and chanted for him on cue.

The Economy

The Egyptian economy is on the verge of imploding -- limping by on a steady flow of strings-attached gifts from wealthy Gulf patron-states.

To an extent, this is a political problem. Morsi’s failure to build consensus and make non-Islamists feel included in the process has bred bitterness, instability and unrest -- all of which has crippled the economy by stifling tourism and scaring away foreign investment.

As Morsi himself said in his Wednesday night speech: “Why would a tourist come to a country where there are roads being cut off [by protests] and molotovs?”

But the Morsi administration has also struggled to put forth a coherent economic plan and at times has publicly shown a serious lack of political will. In December, the government performed a bizarre and revealing public about-face that would have garnered far more attention if it didn’t come right in the heart of the constitutional fight.

A sudden package of new taxes was announced -- designed to appease the International Monetary Fund and speed the path to a desperately needed emergency loan. The taxes were abruptly repealed by Morsi within 24 hours.

“The government really doesn’t have an economic vision,” said Magdi Sobhi, an economist and the deputy director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “I’m not seeing any achievement at all. Literally everything is worse.”

But Gehad al Haddad, a senior FJP advisor and Brotherhood spokesman, said Morsi hasn’t had a chance to even begin to implement a plan. Much of the president’s energy has been spent fending off the counter-revolutionary intentions of the judicial branch while trying to push through reform without the aid of functioning parliament.

“Don’t forget, he has yet to have a fully functional and cooperative government. Of the three branches one is compromised and dedicated to blocking Morsi’s every move and the other is absent, ” Al Haddad said.

Political Instincts

The first sign that Morsi might just be a little politically tone-deaf came last year on the day before his inauguration. In the middle of a well-received speech delivered in a packed and raucous Tahrir Square, Morsi paused for a spontaneous aside about how he would work to free Omar Abdel Rahman -- the blind Egyptian cleric serving a U.S. life sentence for plotting terrorist attacks.

His fledgling political team scrambled to spin the gaffe and reassure an alarmed U.S. government.

When angry Islamist crowds (incensed by a shoddy amateur movie insulting the life of Prophet Muhammad) scaled the U.S. embassy walls and took down the American flag last September, Morsi similarly seemed oblivious to international sensitivities. For an entire day, the government said nothing to condemn the trespassing and disrespect of the embassy grounds. Only a harsh public rebuke from President Obama forced Morsi to speak out against the actions of the local protestors.

Morsi’s most recent political misjudgment came during a re-shuffle of Egypt’s 27 governors. He named a member of the Islamic Group, a radical Salafist organization that battled Mubarak throughout the 1990s, as the new governor of Luxor -- the same place where Group gunmen slaughtered 58 tourists in November 1997.

The Islamic Group has since publicly sworn off violence and formed a political party, but the national response was apoplectic. Morsi’s own tourism minister publicly resigned and a week of steady protests eventually forced the erstwhile governor to withdraw as well.

“The lack of political awareness is just stunning,” said Wael Khalil, a veteran socialist activist who publicly celebrated Morsi’s ascension a year ago. “It’s just sheer blundering.” 

Circling the Wagons

Officials within the Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) feel backed into a corner in a room full of conspiracies. They speak bitterly of an active counter-revolution taking place on multiple fronts, energized by an almost nihilistic opposition that would rather see the country burn under Morsi’s watch than work with him.

“Yes there are a lot of problems, but we can’t separate [Morsi’s] performance from the larger context,” said Abdel Rahman. “He’s being attacked and resisted by the security sector, the judicial sector, the media sector and the political sector.”

With both sides so deeply entrenched, the countryً’s army remains a wild card with every statement closely parsed for deeper meaning. Last week Defense Minister Abdel Fatah Al Sissi caused a stir by declaring the army “impartial and neutral” and generally above politics. But he added a crucial caveat: “We will not stand still and watch the country slide into chaos.”

Morsi’s supporters point to his considerable victory last year in ousting his military rivals and establishing civilian rule over the armed forces, a move vital for safeguarding Egyptian democracy. “I don’t think he has had close to a fair chance,” said Al Haddad, speaking of Morsi. “The President is doing his best.”

Khalil is a Cairo-based journalist and author of Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation.

http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-morsi-faces-political-d-day-one-being-183911801.html

Arab Spring: Is a Revolution Starting Up in Syria?

Rania Abouzeid, 03/19/11

Has the wave of popular revolts rocking the Arab world finally reached Syria, one of the region's most policed states, a country its young president boasted was "immune" from calls for freedom, democracy and accountable government? Or were the unprecedentedly large protests on Friday just a one-off?

Syria was always going to be a tough nut for pro-democracy activists to crack. It is a country where NGOs and political parties other than the ruling Baath have long been banned; and where dissent, however mild, is viciously crushed. The omnipresent secret police, who are much more visible these days, and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad they serve, have instilled a public fear so heavy, it's almost tangible. (See why few go bashing Bashar.)

But on Friday and Saturday something changed. Several thousand Syrians publicly gathered to cast off that yoke by calling for greater freedoms. The extraordinary protests took place across several cities; in Dara'a in the south, Banias, along the Mediterranean, in the capital Damascus at the renowned Umayyad Mosque, and in Homs — not to be confused with Hama, site of a merciless crackdown in the 1980s against the Muslim Brotherhood by Bashar's late father, former President Hafiz Assad. Tens of thousands of people were killed in that uprising, which still remains a potent reminder of the price of rising against the Assads.

It's unclear exactly how many people were killed on Friday in Dara'a after police opened fire on the crowd. Some media reports say six, others five. On Saturday, police in Dara'a reportedly fired tear gas at thousands of mourners taking part in a funeral procession for two protesters killed the day earlier, Wissam Ayyash and Mahmoud al-Jawabra. Mazen Darwish, a Syrian human rights activist just released after spending several days in custody, told the media that Dara'a has been cordoned. The police were letting people leave but not to return into the town. (Syria: Rebels who are on pause?)

Assad has moved quickly to tamp down unrest in Dara'a, according to Ayman Abdel Nour, a prominent Syrian dissident and former political prisoner who now edits www.all4syria.info from Dubai. The 45-year-old president has ordered the release of those detained in Friday's protests, and sent a high-ranking Baath delegation to offer his condolences. "Ten bodies were delivered to their parents," Abdel Nour told TIME. "It is the start of a Syrian revolution unless the regime acts wisely and does the needed reforms," he says. "It will continue in all cities, even small groups, but the brutality the regime will use — it will show its Gaddafi face, the one it has been trying to hide for the last 30 years after the Hama massacres," Abdel Nour says, referring to the Libyan leader, Moammar Gaddafi.

Facebook calls for Syrian "days of rage" in early February fizzled, despite the fact that the country, with its burgeoning youth population, faces many of the same socio-economic factors that helped precipitate uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Oman and other states. Still, a Facebook page entitled "The Syrian Revolution 2011" which has more than 56,000 fans, appears to be emerging as a key virtual rallying point for pro-democracy supporters. On Saturday it posted a 39-second video purportedly shot in Dara'a of a group of men gathered around a bloodied youth in a black t-shirt who appeared to be dead. A volley of gunshots is heard, scattering the crowd. There was no date on the video, nor any way to verify where the footage had been obtained. Syria recently lifted its ban on Facebook, although human rights activists worried that the measure had more to do with greater surveillance of activities on the site than it did with more freedom.

In a twist on a common slogan often heard to praise the president, protesters across the country chanted "God, Syria, freedom and nothing else!" instead of the usual "God, Syria, Bashar and nothing else!" Khaled al-Abboud, a member of parliament representing Dara'a, told Al Jazeera that it wasn't so much what the protesters said, but the mere fact that they were protesting, and blamed the unrest on "Islamists" and a "foreign agenda." "I don't think that we are against what was said, but against what some of these demonstrations might lead to," he told the Arabic satellite television station. "They are fulfilling foreign agendas, they don't represent the street, they want to manipulate the street."

Syria's official SANA news agency confirmed the violence in Dara'a and also blamed "acts of sabotage" for Friday's events there. "A number of instigators tried to create chaos and unrest damaging public and private properties and setting fire to cars and shops," it said, adding that the security forces stepped in "to protect citizens and their property." Blaming a hidden foreign hand and Islamists is vintage Assad. The barrier of fear Syrians must surmount is significant if they are to seriously take on the regime, but then again, as protesters in Tunisia, Egypt and even Libya have proven, so too are the opportunities.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2060398,00.html

骨牌效應已經在中東地區浮現。除了人民自主之外，其後果之一可能是導致美國全球軍力佈署的重新整合。這個後果將會導致美國重新思考其全球戰略，以及隨著對以往戰略可行度及適用性的評估而來的自我定位。這個新的定位自然也就影響到美國外交政策。未來各國的合縱連橫以及國際局勢的運作也就需要做一定程度的調整。

中國的地位也就必然隨著「全球崛起」而水漲船高。這大概是「蝴蝶效應」的典型展現。

Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen

Brian Murphy, Associated Press

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The possible heirs of Egypt's uprising took to the streets Monday in different corners of the Middle East: Iran's beleaguered opposition stormed back to central Tehran and came under a tear gas attack by police. Demonstrators faced rubber bullets and birdshot to demand more freedoms in the relative wealth of Bahrain. And protesters pressed for the ouster of the ruler in poverty-drained Yemen.

The protests — all with critical interests for Washington — offer an important lesson about how groups across Middle East are absorbing the message from Cairo and tailoring it to their own aspirations.

The heady themes of democracy, justice and empowerment remain intact as the protest wave works it way through the Arab world and beyond. What changes, however, are the objectives. The Egypt effect, it seems, is elastic.

"This isn't a one-size-fits-all thing," said Mustafa Alani, a regional analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "Each place will interpret the fallout from Egypt in their own way and in their own context."

For the Iranian opposition — not seen on the streets in more than a year — it's become a moment to reassert its presence after facing relentless pressures.

Tens of thousands of protesters clashed with security forces along some of Tehran's main boulevards, which were shrouded in clouds of tear gas in scenes that recalled the chaos after the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009. A pro-government news agency reported one bystander killed by gunfire.

"Death to the dictator," many yelled in reference to Ahmadinejad. Others took aim Iran's all-powerful Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with chants linking him with toppled rulers Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Tunisia's Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali.

"Bin Ali, Mubarak, it's Seyed Ali's turn," protesters cried.

The reformist website kaleme.com said police stationed several cars in front of the home of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the demonstration. Mousavi and fellow opposition leader Mahdi Karroubi have been under house arrest since last week after they asked the government for permission to hold a rally in support of Egypt's uprising — which Iran's leaders have claimed was a modern-day replay of their 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Karroubi and Mousavi, however, have compared the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia with their own struggles. Mousavi said all region's revolts aimed at ending the "oppression of the rulers."

A new U.S. State Department Twitter account in Farsi took a jab at Iran in one of its first messages Sunday, calling on Tehran to "allow people to enjoy same universal rights to peacefully assemble, demonstrate as in Cairo."

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton expressed support for the Iranian protesters, saying they "deserve to have the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt and are part of their own birthright."

In Yemen, meanwhile, the protests are about speeding the ouster of the U.S.-allied president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has promised he would step down in 2013.

Monday's protests mirrored the calls in Egypt and Tunisia against the leaders there who had been in power for decades: "The people want the regime to step down."

Protesters in the tiny Gulf nation of Bahrain are not looking to topple its monarchy. But their demands are no less lofty: greater political freedom and sweeping changes in how the country is run.

The next possible round of demonstrations gives a similar divide.

A coalition in Algeria — human rights activists, unionists, lawyers and others — has called protests Saturday to push for the end of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's 12-year rule. Kuwait's highly organized opposition, including parliament members, plans gatherings March 8 to demand a wholesale change of cabinet officials, but not the ruling emir.

"We are experiencing a pan-Arab democratic moment of sorts," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. "For opposition groups, it comes down the question of, 'If not now, when?'"

But he noted that the newfound Arab confidence for change will go in various directions.

"The Arab opposition are using the Egyptian model as a message that anything is possible," Hamid said. "Then they interpret that into their local context."

In Yemen, more than 1,000 people, including lawyers in their black courtroom robes, joined a fourth consecutive day of protests in the capital of Sanaa — a day after police attacked anti-government marchers with sticks and daggers. Human Rights Watch said police on Sunday also used stun guns and batons to disperse protesters.

"We will continue our protests until the regime falls," independent lawmaker Ahmed Hashid said.

Police separated the opposition rally from a hundred government supporters holding pictures of the president.

Bahrain was more violent. Security forces fired tear gas, rubber bullets and birdshot pellets at thousands of anti-government protesters heeding calls to unite in a major rally and bring the Arab reform wave to the Gulf for the first time. At least 25 people were injured, and one man died after suffering severe head trauma.

Police later used vans and other vehicles to block main roads into the capital of Manama to prevent a mass gathering that organizers intended as an homage to Egypt's Tahrir Square.

Social media sites have been flooded with calls by an array of political youth groups, rights activists and others to join demonstrations Monday, a symbolic day in Bahrain as the anniversary of the country's 2002 constitution that brought pro-democracy reforms such as an elected parliament.

But opposition groups seek deeper changes from the country's ruling dynasty, including transferring more decision-making powers to the parliament and breaking the monarchy's grip on senior government posts. Bahrain's majority Shiites — about 70 percent of the population — have long complained of systemic discrimination by the Sunni rulers.

The nation — no bigger in area than New York City — is among the most politically volatile in the Gulf. A crackdown on perceived dissidents last year touched off riots and street battles in Shiite areas.

Some protesters carried mock Valentine's Day greetings from a prominent Bahraini blogger in custody, Ali Abdul-Imam.

"Arabs have been inspired by Egypt and empowered to believe that their voices must be heard and respected," wrote James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, in a commentary in Abu Dhabi's The National newspaper. "It will make life more complicated for Western and Arab policy makers."

Monday's unrest touched on two key points of Washington's Mideast constellation.

Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, one of the Pentagon's main counterweights to Iran's attempts to expand influence in the Gulf. Yemen's militant networks offer safe haven for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which has planned and launched several attack against the U.S., including the attempted airliner bombing on Christmas Day 2009 and the failed mail bomb plot involving cargo planes last summer.

The U.S. military plans a $75 million training program with Yemen's counterterrorism unit to expand its size and capabilities in the nation's difficult mountain terrain. Last month, the U.S. also delivered four Huey helicopters to Yemen and has been training the aviation units.

"What has happened in Tunisia and Egypt has terrified pro-Western Arab rulers," said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics.

"One of the lessons that the U.S. will take from current unrest is that the status quo is no longer sustainable," he added. "There are huge cracks in the Arab authoritarian wall. It's the end of an era and the U.S. must make very tough choices and decisions."

Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who is visiting Iran, urged governments in the Middle East to listen to the their people.

"When leaders and heads of countries do not pay attention to the demands of their nations, the people themselves take action to achieve their demands," the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Gul as saying.

Associated Press writer Dale Gavlak in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this report.

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I agree with Mr. Chen's assessment. Events in both Tunisia and Egypt will usher in a new era in the Arabic world, and they certainly will reverberate throughout the world. Whether there will be similar effect in regions with more or less the same socio-economic-political structure will be decided by the will and tenacity of local people country by country.

We should not underestimate the will and power of the Egyptian people. The downfall of Mubarack is a hard earn victory of millions of Egyptians taking part at the Liberty Square risking their lives against dictatorship pure and simple. It is not instigated by external forces but from the dissatisfactions domestically. In fact, the U..S. was caught off guard and even the White House has divided opinions in what to do. There were complains about the failure of CIA intelligence for example. The future of Egypt is uncertain at the moment. Whether it will have a true independent democracy remains to be seen. The chances that it turns into a puppet regime, overly religious, or overly military can’t be discounted. I think it will have repercussion and encouragement to the promotion of democratic movement the world over.

*** 本文為私人論壇內部討論。 -- 卜凱

Mubarak’s departure: What it means, what’s next

By Steve Clemons

Pro-democracy protesters celebrated in cities across Egypt on Friday after forcing President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Mubarak, who had announced Thursday night in a televised speech that he would keep his title and give some of his authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman, suddenly handed over power to the military and left Cairo. (Latest developments)

Mubarak's resignation, which ends three decades of authoritarian rule, raises numerous questions about what led to his decision, what happens next and what the transition means. Here are some answers.

What does the change in Egypt mean for the United States?

Mubarak's resignation and the uncertainty facing Egypt are serious issues for American foreign policy. Mubarak's Egypt was a longstanding American ally that cooperated with the United States on a long list of issues, ranging from combating terrorism to assisting U.S. military operations in the Middle East to helping secure shipping lanes to facilitating Arab-Israeli negotiations. The tectonic shift going on in Egypt, and in the broader Middle East, may have dramatic effects on the future price of oil, the extent of American regional influence, Israeli security, and a host of other key questions. With Egypt in a state of transition, the United States might see some of its interests suffer and some remain secure. Whatever ultimately happens in Egypt, the process has only just begun. The fate of America's regional influence and its diplomatic, economic and military ties to the Middle East is a part of that process.

Who is in charge of Egypt now?

Around 11 a.m. EST, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for almost 30 years, resigned. In a 30-second statement, his vice president, Omar Suleiman, announced that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would manage the state's affairs. The military now appears to be fully in control of the country. Suleiman, Mubarak's ally, is still part of the governing body but with potentially diminished influence.  It is a fluid situation, and how power ultimately will shake out is unclear. The Supreme Council is made up of the heads of the different branches of the military as well as the Minister of Defense and the General Chief of Staff.  Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi chaired the most recent meeting of the Council in Mubarak's absence.

What happens next?  How will the transition work?

What is clear is that a process will begin in which the opposition parties will be involved, though how it will work has not been defined. Much depends on how the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will structure the tasks ahead.  The military already has said it will not accept the legitimacy of the state, meaning it has no intention of maintaining power for the long term. The Army probably will now step back to establish a playbook by which the nation moves to both change laws in the Constitution that have hindered democracy—and set up a process by which new political groups get a role in determining collectively how a fair election needs to be structured.

Where is Mubarak now, and where is he likely to go?

Earlier this morning President Mubarak's presidential plane reportedly left for and landed in Sharm el-Sheikh, the Red Sea resort city in the south of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. There are some rumors at the moment that he has left the country, but that has not been confirmed.  If he has not yet left, it is very possible that he will try to leave Egypt for a safe haven in one of the Gulf States, Europe, or perhaps in the United States, but any nation that accepts Mubarak will have to deal with the anger of the Egyptian public.  Mubarak also might have to worry about legal challenges and extradition.

What happened between Mubarak's speech last night and his decision to resign today?

Totalitarian regimes don't fall very neatly and predictably.  There were 18 days of pressure that finally produced a resignation, but there was no certainty that Mubarak would in the end give in.  Mubarak's ability to stand against the headwinds facing him was impressive on one level.  The military most likely had some divisions between those who believed Mubarak should go and those who remained loyal or fearful.  This might have been a "soft coup" in which Mubarak was forced by the military to announce the suspension of his presidency.  It is important that we did not hear Mubarak resign; we heard Suleiman announce the words that Mubarak refused to utter.

Did the White House play a role in Mubarak's decision to step down?

Yes, the White House mattered but certainly did not play the decisive role.  The Egyptian public catalyzed the events that brought Mubarak down.  The White House defined the core principles that it most cared about—no violence, respecting the right of people to assemble and protest, and calling for meaningful, inclusive transition—and these became the frame for many other key nations and commentators.  This principle-driven pressure from the United States made a difference but was not what mattered most.

What will the relationship be between the United States and the interim government and the civilian opposition leaders now?

This is unclear. The military continues to have robust communication with the Pentagon,  and the White House and State Department are in increasing communication with representatives of opposition leaders.  The future course of this communication is unclear — but United States can be expected to reach out at the appropriate time to a broad array of leaders in Egypt who themselves are committed to democratic principles.  The United States will not, however, attempt to select political winners or losers.  This would backfire and undermine America's ability to have a healthy relationship based on mutual interests with Egypt's next government.

What will the repercussions be across the Middle East?

Egypt is a major anchor in the Arab world, in the Islamic world, and a key nation of Africa. The effects of this earthquake may be substantial but also hard to predict.  The governments in the region that may be most vulnerable immediately might be Jordan, Morocco, and Yemen, but the political and government dynamics in those countries are not the same as that in Egypt.  The dynamic we have seen unfold in the Middle East probably is not done unfolding.

Will the protesters leave Tahrir Square?

Tahrir Square probably will remain a heavily populated site for weeks to come, not because of protesters but because of celebrations that the people there on that site changed their history peacefully and powerfully.  Some also might remain in Tahrir Square so that the interests of the public remain visible to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

Steve Clemons is founder and senior fellow of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. He is part of a group of foreign policy experts that the White House has consulted with concerning the situation in Egypt. He also is publisher of  The Washington Note.

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