Is China Really No. 1?

Mark Rice (Forbes 2011-01-21)

A modest effort to put the China vs. U.S. debate into perspective.

By now worries about China's supremacy have been sounded widely. A Yale law professor tells us that Chinese mothers are the best. A standardized test indicates that students in Shanghai are much brighter than students in the U.S. A surprise unveiling of a new stealth fighter means China has leveled the military playing field. Worse yet, Americans will all soon be driving Geely Pandas or Hafie Lolos because the Chinese car market has surpassed the U.S.'. And on it goes.

For example, did you know that China is the world's leading economic power? It's not, really, but a recent poll by the Pew Research Center shows that 47% of Americans think it is. Such beliefs are telling. There's a whole lot of misperception and misinformation floating around out there about how China measures up in the world. Consider this a modest effort to put some things into perspective.

First, China's gross domestic product (GDP) currently is the second-largest in the world, but it is less than two-thirds the size of the world's largest--which belongs to the U.S. Second, its per-capita GDP--perhaps an even more relevant economic measure--ranks 128th in the world at $7,400. (The U.S. ranks 11th at $47,400.) Clearly China has a long way to go before its economy catches up to the U.S.'

To be sure, there are many areas in which China does rank first in the world. Some of these areas have implications for the global economy and international relations, and some for the health of the planet. Others are just plain fascinating.

In 2009 China surpassed Germany to become the world's largest exporter. It also has the world's largest military. In fact, over 10% of the world's military personnel are Chinese. On the other hand, China ranks behind both the U.S. and Russia in military expenditures. Given that the U.S. and China each spend just over 4% of their GDP on defense, there is little chance that China will ever present a serious military threat to the U.S.

If people want to worry about China, they may want to focus their attention on the environment. China produces over 15% of the world's total energy, and much of that comes from the burning of coal. It is the world's largest importer of hydrocarbons and the largest consumer of coal. It also emits the most carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, making it the world's No. 1 contributor to global warming as well as acid rain.

China also ranks first in several other environmentally risky categories. It consumes nearly one-third of the world's fertilizer. And its mines produce close to 40% of the world's lead and over half of the world's mercury. These mining operations will almost certainly present serious public health and environmental problems that will last for decades.

The Chinese also rule the pornography world, with over one-quarter of all pornography revenues generated there. China also exports more sex toys than anyone else. Keeping with the same theme, Chinese women use contraception at a higher rate than women in any other country.

Over half of the world's tobacco is grown in China, and around one-third of all cigarettes smoked are done so in China. China produces and consumes around 20% of the world's beer supply, ranking it first in both categories. China also produces more than a quarter of the world's meat, and its edible offal supply is six times as large as second-place Russia. Also, more people die in automobile accidents in China than anywhere else, and China sentences prisoners to death far more than any other country

Perhaps the most important area in which China ranks first is the overall satisfaction of its population. In a 2009 Pew Survey 87% of Chinese respondents were satisfied with the direction their country is headed. In the U.S. that number was just 36%. These are stark differences, and they suggest that, while Chinese citizens see their country prospering in the future, Americans see the U.S. as having passed its prime.

Those fears are misguided. In almost any measure of quality of life, the U.S. far outshines China. Maybe if more Americans cracked open a beer and lit a cigarette, they'd relax and stop worrying so much about China.

Mark Rice is the chair of American studies at St. John Fisher College in Rochester, N.Y., Links to many of the sources of the data used in this essay can be found on his blog, Ranking America.

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