Tunisia and the Clash Within Civilizations

Rajan Menon, 02/20/13

Earlier this month, Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid was shot dead outside his home. Belaid’s death has shaken Tunisia, but it also illuminates larger trends in the post-revolution Arab world.

Belaid was an intrepid critic of the authoritarian ancien regime of Zine Abidine Ben Ali, which ruled Tunisia for nearly a quarter century until it was felled by a revolution in January 2011. He was also a leader of the left-wing Democratic Patriots’ Movement and emerged as a fierce foe of Ennahda, the moderate Islamist party that formed an uneasy coalition with two secular parties. But Belaid was unimpressed by that step, or by Ennahda’s promises to pursue moderate Islam and pluralism. He questioned the party’s sincerity about democracy and tolerance and also charged that it was either incapable of reining in -- or sympathetic to -- the agenda of Tunisia’s radical Salafis, who have used intimidation and violence in pursuit of their vision of a pure Islamic society, with their targets ranging from art exhibits and establishments serving alcohol to a university.

Belaid’s bluntness earned him death threats, and he worried openly about his safety. His widow and confidants charged that the government had failed to offer him protection, blaming Ennahda in particular. Other critics went further, insisting that Ennahda was complicit in Belaid’s murder, the party leadership’s condemnations of it notwithstanding. Both immediately after Belaid’s assassination and at his funeral there were massive demonstrations, clashes between police and protesters, and strikes. Tens of thousands participated in these activities, not just in Tunis, the capital, but in other cities as well.

The Clash Within Arab Societies

One of the larger trends illustrated by Belaid’s death is the controversy that surfaces whenever Islam’s role in politics and subsidiary issues -- the content of the new constitutions, the role of women in politics and society, educational policy, the status of non-Muslims or the sale of liquor -- are debated in the political arena.

The late Samuel Huntington proffered the “clash of civilizations” as a paradigm for understanding the post–Cold War world. But what we are witnessing in the Arab world, and not just since the recent revolutionary wave there, has been a clash within a civilization, especially when it comes to Islam’s place in politics.

The Islamist parties that were catapulted to power in Tunisia and Egypt by the momentum of the Arab Spring want the new political order to be shaped by the principles of their faith. But this project has run into resistance -- not just from liberal democrats, socialists, and non-Muslim minorities, for whom this enterprise is anathema, but also from other Muslim groups, especially Salafis, who have chastised Ennahda and Egypt’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood for lacking commitment to a pristine sharia-based polity. For the Salafis, an Arab variant of what Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has done amounts to a watery gruel at best.

Thus the struggle over religion’s place in politics has divided, rather than united, Muslims in North Africa and the Middle East. This split tends to be portrayed as a quarrel between “secularists” and “Islamists.” This is a mistake, for the former camp includes observant Muslims who, nonetheless, want to keep their faith and politics apart. Likewise, Christians and Islamic sects, such as the Sufis, take their religion seriously but do not want it to define political life, or for it to be defined by zealots claiming to be “true” Muslims.

Ruling Islamist parties have themselves been divided by the Islam-in-politics question. When Ennahda came under fire after Belaid’s murder, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali proposed the appointment of a new cabinet consisting solely of professional technocrats, no doubt to calm things down by sidelining the controversy over Islam and politics. But as many of his Ennahda comrades saw it, this was no time to turn apolitical: Ennahda had placed first in the 2011 election based on a political platform shaped by Islam and retreating under pressure was unacceptable. Cabinet members belonging to Ennahda refused to relinquish their posts, and Jebali faced a revolt by members of his own party, who planned a rally to protest his plan. Adding to the confusion, Ennahda’s vice president, Abdelfattah Mourou, backed Jebali’s plan and called for the resignation of the party’s leader, Rachid Ghannouchi. And the prime minister, having threatened last week to quit if his efforts were blocked, did just that on Tuesday.

In Syria the clash within a civilization has assumed a deadly form. The civil war pits an Alawite-dominated state against insurgents, whose most pious members see Alawites not as fellow Muslims but as apostates. Bashar’s regime has been able to survive not only because it has more and better weapons than its foes (which it does) but also because other Muslims (Sunnis urban professional, Kurds, and Druze) and Syria’s various Christian denominations have either stayed neutral or backed the government despite their misgivings for fear that its fall will lead to the rise of a doctrinaire Sunni regime. The armed opposition is, in the main, Sunni, and has roots in the rural areas. Many groups within it are animated by the goal of establishing an Islamic state.

For now, the insurgents in Syria are held together by the shared commitment of destroying Assad’s regime, but the divisions over what precisely an Islamic political order ought to look like are already present and will surely deepen in a post-Assad state. So what we see in Syria is a split within what Huntington regarded as a single civilization (Islam) and tactical alliances that cross civilization boundaries.

The intra-civilization clash is also visible in Bahrain, where a Sunni-dominated monarchical state lords it over a restive Shia underclass, which constitute close to 70 percent of the population. Bahrain’s Shia rose up during the Arab Spring and continue to rebel (though without much notice from Washington, given that Manama, in Bahrain, is home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet). What arguably saved the Bahrain’s rulers was the March 2011 intervention by Saudi troops, who quashed a rebellion rooted in the Shia community. Saudi Arabia was moved to act by its abiding fear of a fellow Islamic state, Iran, which it believed would become the patron a Shia regime in Bahrain.

Mobilization vs. Institutions

The second trend highlighted by Chokri Belaid’s murder, and by the Arab Spring more generally, is the imbalance between social mobilization (peoples’ newfound freedom to participate in politics) and political institutionalization (new political structures struggle to gain legitimacy, to provide venues for reconciling political disputes, and to maintain public order).

This is a feature of politics that Huntington got right in Political Order in Changing Societies, a book that, though not nearly as well known beyond the ivory tower as The Clash of Civilizations, is a far better one. The consequences of disequilibrium in the emerging political orders that Huntington depicted are clear in Tunisia and Egypt. Nascent institutions must manage energized and impatient citizens. Opposition parties that once led a marginalized existence, were banned, or whose leaders were jailed (or worse), have gained power only to find that they now have become the suspect establishment that the masses mistrust, with one difference: postauthoritarian politics enables public mistrust to morph more easily into popular mobilization.

But it is in Libya that the social mobilization-versus-political institutionalization dynamic is visible in its most dramatic form. A weak government struggles to create basic stability. Political institutions are feeble. A multitude of militias consisting of former anti-Qaddafi fighters are a law unto themselves. These armed statelets do not share a common agenda, bar the one of paying as little heed to the directives of the central government as possible, and that aggravates the chaos. So feeble is the center that it often relies on one set of militias to fend off challenges from others. But this has had two pernicious consequences: the state has become more dependent on militias, and violence among militias persists. The attack on the American consulate in Benghazi on September 11 that resulted in the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans -- apparently the handiwork of a radical Islamist militia, Ansar al-Sharia -- was but the most tragic example of the weakness of Libya’s institutions in the face of social mobilization.

Chokri Belaid’s killing was a particular (and particularly tragic) illustration of some of the larger forces that are now at play the Arab world -- but are far from being played out.

Rajan Menon is the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the City College of New York/City University of New York, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author, most recently, of The End of Alliances.

The Arab Spring's First Real Test of Democracy Arrives in Tunisia

How the Islamist Salafi Group is Playing Politics From the Sidelines

Aaron Y. Zelin, 10/21/11

Summary:

A recent screening of the movie Persepolis sparked religious turmoil in Tunis. How voters react at the polls this weekend will say much about the future of Arab uprisings.

Ten months after an infuriated fruit vendor in Tunisia set himself aflame and provoked an uprising that tore President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali from power, the country’s citizens will go to the polls on Sunday to vote for a 217-seat Constituent Assembly. Tunisia’s election will be the first real electoral test of the Arab uprisings.
Several major forces are vying for power in the newly democratic country.

The largest party is the Muslim Brotherhood–linked Ennahda, which enjoys the greatest amount of support and whose poll numbers stand between 25 and 30 percent. Secularist and liberal parties, such as the Parti Démocrate Progressiste (PDP) and Ettakatol, have been recently polling between 10 and 15 percent. The PDP has rejected any possible coalition with Ennahda, but Ettakatol has expressed a willingness to work with it. There is also a small but vocal Salafi movement, which some Tunisians fear might act as a spoiler in the election alongside Ben Ali’s security apparatus. But until recently, all indications pointed to a successful election in which Ennahda would win a plurality of the votes and enter into a coalition to draft Tunisia’s new constitution.

In the past two weeks, however, unrest surrounding the role of religion in society has thrown these forecasts into question. On October 7, a private television station, Nessma, aired the movie Persepolis, sending shock waves through Tunisia’s burgeoning Salafi community. The film, about one young woman’s experience of the Islamic revolution in Iran, contains a scene in which God is depicted in human form -- an act of blasphemy for religious Muslims.

A backlash against Nessma TV quickly arose. Sheik Abu Ayyad, a leader of one of Tunisia’s most outspoken and radical Salafi groups, Ansar al-Sharia, accused the station of waging a “heretical” and “malicious” campaign against Islam. On October 9, Tunisian police entered several mosques and arrested some of the worshippers who were organizing anti-Nessma TV protests. In retaliation, Salafis called for “Day of Rage” demonstrations five days later. Their Internet campaign for the event included images of the Nessma TV station logo superimposed over a Jewish Star of David. The station, which has no discernable ties to Israel, was nevertheless accused of taking part in a “Zionist conspiracy.” The protests themselves turned violent; Salafi activists looted the home of Nessma’s owner, and Tunisian police used tear gas to disperse the crowds.

Some, such as the French Arabist Yves Gonzalez-Quijano, have speculated that Nessma TV, which is known for its provocative programming, aired Persepolis expecting that it would elicit a strident reaction from the Salafis and hoping that this response would warn Tunisia’s secularists and liberals that radical elements could hijack the revolution. Whether or not this was Nessma’s intended effect, several thousand Tunisians poured into the streets for a peaceful counter-protest on October 16, demanding protections for freedom of speech and civil liberties.

The events surrounding the screening of Persepolis have altered the dynamics of Sunday’s election. The majority of Salafis in Tunisia oppose participating in elections, since they view them as contrary to sharia. But the Persepolis controversy gave Salafis the impetus to flex their muscle and protest what they saw as yet another attempt to marginalize Islam in their country, giving them a voice in a debate in which they had been sidelined. The show of force by the Salafis jolted apathetic elements of the Tunisian youth and liberals into action. Liberal groups mounted another round of rallies on Thursday and plan to demonstrate Saturday, in Tunisia and in France, to defend pluralism and to speak out against the possibility of religious dictatorship. The Salafi demonstrations may thus help bring more secular and liberal Tunisians out to the polls in fear that there will be an Islamist takeover.

The Salafi protests have also placed Ennahda in a bind. The party has condemned the demonstrations and denied any role in them, reiterating that it seeks change only through peaceful means. On the one hand, this sentiment may alienate some of Ennahda’s young supporters, who are believed to be more radical than its “moderate” leadership. On the other hand, it may buttress the party’s credentials among Tunisia’s liberals, who fear that it has been saying one thing in public and another to its supporters in private. If Ennahda continues its pragmatism once elected, it could dampen and discredit more extreme religious elements and allay the concerns of Tunisia’s secular elements.

Nevertheless, some Tunisians remain worried about Ennahda. Many reacted with concern when the party’s leader, Rachid al-Ghannouchi, recently said that Ennahda expects to receive a majority of the vote, fearing a potential Islamist backlash should the party fail to meet those expectations. Yet al-Ghannouchi claims that he remains dedicated to reconciliation, even if his party does not receive the highest percentage of votes.

As has been the case in other Arab countries in the midst of transition, debates over the role of religion in society have become focal points for religious and secular groups alike. How Tunisians grapple with this issue, along with the results from this coming weekend’s election, may offer insight into the trajectory of the rest of the Arab uprisings. As with the original protests in December 2010 and January 2011 that sparked the revolutions, a hopeful outcome in Tunisia may promote peaceful democratic transitions elsewhere.

Aaron Y. Zelin is Research Associate in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University. He maintains the Web site Jihadology and co-edits the al-Wasat blog.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136605/aaron-y-zelin/the-arab-springs-first-real-test-of-democracy-arrives-in-tunisia

UN mission says 219 killed in Tunisia uprising

Bouazza Ben Bouazza, Associated Press

TUNIS, Tunisia – At least 219 people were killed and 510 injured in the unrest that led to the fall of Tunisia's dictatorial regime, a United Nations mission said Tuesday, as sporadic violence continued to flare around the country.

A gang set fire overnight to a small synagogue, a Jewish leader said, in what appeared to be the first attack on a Jewish institution since the start of the unrest that forced the Muslim North African nation's autocratic President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee to Saudi Arabia.

Bakr N'diaye, the head of the mission sent by the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights to investigate the unrest, said his team counted 147 deaths beside the 72 deaths in prison fires and violence linked to the unrest.

The country's caretaker government has said about 78 people lost their lives in the unrest fueled by widespread corruption and repression, but that figure has been contested by the opposition.

Tunisia's rebellion has spread to Egypt, where protesters are calling for the departure of President Hosni Mubarak, as well as to Jordan and Yemen.

Meanwhile, in Tunisia the interim government has been trying to stabilize the country and reassure demonstrators that democratic change is possible — in large part, by removing Ben Ali's old guard from many posts of power.

On Tuesday, 27 high-ranking police and Interior Ministry officials were ordered to retire, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to reporters. Critics had accused them of repression under Ben Ali.

During 23 years in power, Tunisia's ousted president was accused of systematic repression, torture of political prisoners and corruption. Opponents, including proponents of political Islam, were jailed or forced into exile.

Members of the long-outlawed Islamist party Ennahdha formally asked the Interior Ministry to lift the ban Tuesday, said Noureddine Bhiri, a member of the party's delegation.

Amid the rapid changes in Tunisia, scattered unrest has continued. Police in the capital, Tunis, dispersed demonstrators Monday with tear gas and youths sacked several state offices in the central-western town of Kesserine.

A small synagogue in the southern town of El Hamma was set alight overnight and a Torah was burned, said Perez Trabelski, who heads the historic Ghriba synagogue in Djerba. Gangs also damaged four cars belonging to Jews in Djerba, he said. The Muslim nation has a small Jewish community.

"They want us to leave and seed discord between the Jewish and Muslim communities who have long lived in harmony," Trabelsi said in a telephone interview.

The Ghriba synagogue was the target of a deadly terror attack in 2002 that left 21 people dead, including 14 German tourists, in the only major attack in Tunisia by Islamist extremists.

Meanwhile, Tunisian authorities on Tuesday freed a former Guantanamo detainee as part of a promise by the interim government to free all political prisoners, according to attorney Samir Ben Amor.

Abdallah Hajji, 55, was sentenced to eight years in prison after his return in 2007 from the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Another former Guantanamo detainee was released from a Tunisian prison in June.

The European Union said Monday it plans to impose an asset freeze on Ben Ali and his wife, and promised to help the country move toward full democracy. Tunisia has issued an international arrest warrant for Ben Ali, accusing him of taking money out of the country illegally.

French prosecutors are probing the Ben Ali family's assets in France. Police said officials seized a private plane belonging to the family that had been stored in a warehouse at Le Bourget airport outside Paris.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110201/ap_on_re_af/af_tunisia

Egypt in Turmoil: Is an End Game Being Played Out?

Rania Abouzeid / Cairo and Aryn Baker / Beirut, 01/29/11

On the streets of Cairo on Saturday, the chanting was clearly in response to President Hosni Mubarak's overnight remarks. Mubarak had declared that he would replace the government — skirting over the fact that popular anger had turned specifically toward him. And so the crowds modified their slogan to remove any ambiguity. On Friday, many had shouted that "The people want the regime to fall." On Saturday, that had become "The people want the rais [the leader] to fall." Just so the President got the point.

"Everybody knows that governments don't make decisions in this country. Mubarak does," says a young Cairene woman who didn't want to give her name. "Why would he think we still want him?" Mustafa, 47, a teacher, agrees. "He thinks he's a pharaoh." "We just want him gone," says Mahmoud, a young man taking pictures of a burned out mall on the edge of the Nile, looted on Friday night. "And for the first time ever, it seems like we're almost there. I don't know how, but we can feel it." (See pictures of Egypt convulsed by protests.)

On Saturday, Mubarak swore in Omar Suleiman, 76, chief of Egyptian intelligence, as his vice-president. The decision is significant because, over his 30-year reign, the Egyptian president has never had a vice-president and the political succession was always ambiguous, hence the speculation that his son Gamal was being groomed as his dynastic heir. As the news circulated, speculation was rife that the shadowy intelligence chief, who has the support of the still popular Egyptian military, was the safe pair of hands which the U.S. and Israel would approve to manage an orderly transition that would maintain Egypt's international commitments; it also may signal that Mubarak may not be running for another term in September. (Comment on this story.) 

Internationally, Suleiman has had an increasingly prominent role in mediating disputes between rival Palestinian factions in the Occupied Territories as well as trying to bring Lebanon's bitter political rivals together. Domestically, as head of the intelligence apparatus, Suleiman has stayed somewhat in the shadows, a fact that may now play in his favor as Egyptians lash out at symbols of the regime.

Suleiman had been mentioned in the recent WikiLeaks dump of U.S. diplomatic cables as a potential successor to Mubarak. Describing the Egyptian intelligence chief as a "Mubarak consigliere," the U.S. cables cited Suleiman's "military background" and that he was "unlikely to harbor ambitions for another multi-decade presidency." Also from the documents: "An alleged personal friend of [Suleiman] tells us that [Suleiman] 'detests' the idea of Gamal as president, and that he also was 'deeply personally hurt' by Mubarak, who promised to name him vice-president several years ago, but then reneged." (Is there an ElBaradei solution?)

Even before the word of Suleiman's appointment came out, there was already a heady sense of pending victory in the offices of Egypt's fledgling opposition parties. While mobile phones are still mostly disconnected, TIME's Aryn Baker in Beirut managed to reach Cairo by landline and speak to Abou Elela Mady, Chairman of the Al-Wasat Party. He was audibly excited. His office has become a de-facto protest staging ground, and, when reached, was preparing to lead a protest group towards Tahrir Square, the focal point of this week's showdown with the regime. "I think this is the end of Mubarak," he shouted, as he tried to make his voice heard over the cacophony in his office. In the backround, it sounded as if the protesters were practicing their chants. There had been a rumor going around that there has been a split between Mubarak and the Army, and it has galvanized the protesters. "I think he will be gone in a few hours," he said, as folks cheered in the background. Mady had been out on the streets with his daughter and two sons every day since the protests started. He was giddy with the thought that today may actually be the last stand. "We won't leave until Mubarak is pushed out like Ben Ali [the ousted President of Tunisia]." Said Mady, "These are historical hours, minutes, not days. Everything is happening so fast. It is the beginning of a new era for Egypt, one we have been waiting for for 30 years. We can now call it a revolution."

Since it was established six years ago, Mady's al-Wasat party has been sitting in limbo — not recognized by the Egyptian government, it cannot field candidates as a party. Instead members have been forced to run as independents. This is a common tactic of Mubarak's regime, one that has severely curtailed the development of a true opposition. Now, Mady is anticipating some fundamental changes to Egypt's political system, and the small opposition parties that have struggled to make their voices heard for so long. "It will be a new era for all of us. It is a chance to be a real part of Egypt's political life. Finally Egypt will be able to work as an ordinary country, one with elections and a real democracy, not a dictatorship draped in the cloth of democracy," he said. "This will open the door to all who want a say in Egypt's future, not just a small elite that ruled by corruption and the marriage of violence and power. That game is over." (See President Obama's response to the Egyptian turmoil.)

Mady used to be a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, until he split to form al-Wasat. He dismissed Western concerns that the Islamist group might use the situation to its advantage and take over the country. "The Muslim Brotherhood is powerful, and they have large numbers, so yes there is a small worry," he says. "But this revolution is not just opening the doors to the Brotherhood, but to all political actors. This will actually lead to a balance in Egyptian society, where power is distributed to all, not just the brotherhood, as the regime has threatened." Mady echoed a refrain common to many politicians opposed to Egypt's president: "The Brotherhood is a scarecrow that the regime sets up to frighten westerners into accepting Mubarak's police state. Once power is evenly distributed, we will see that they don't have that much strength."

As he spoke, a ticker flash on CNN said that Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah had pledged his support to Mubarak. Asked about this, Mady laughed: "All the Arab regimes, they are terrified. They know that if Mubarak falls, they will be next. Tunis gave us a push, but Egypt is the beginning of the end for the Arab world's dictatorial regimes. They should all be afraid now."

With reporting by Tony Karon / New York

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045116,00.html#ixzz1CV6ClLxg

本文於 修改第 4 次

Cairo scene of violent chaos as protests escalate

Sarah El Deeb/Maggie Michael

CAIRO – Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters poured into the streets of Egypt Friday, stoning and confronting police who fired back with rubber bullets and tear gas in the most violent and chaotic scenes yet in the challenge to President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. Even a Nobel Peace laureate was soaked by water cannon and forced to take refuge in a mosque.

Groups of thousands of protesters, some chanting "out, out, out," gathered at at least six venues in Cairo, a city of about 18 million people, and many of them were on the move marching toward major squares and across Nile bridges. Security officials said there were protests in at least 11 of the country's 28 provinces.

It was a major escalation in the protests that began on Tuesday to demand 82-year-old Mubarak's ouster and vent rage at years of government neglect of rampant poverty, unemployment and rising food prices. Security officials said protesters ransacked the headquarters of Mubarak's ruling party in the cities of Mansoura north of Cairo and Suez, east of the capital.

Internet and cell phone services, at least in Cairo, appeared to be largely cut off since overnight in the most extreme measure so far to try to hamper protesters form organizing. However, that did not prevent tens of thousands from flooding the streets.

"It's time for this government to change," said Amal Ahmed, a 22-year-old protester. "I want a better future for me and my family when I get married."

The protesters have said they are emboldened by the uprising in Tunisia, another north African Arab nation. Egypt is Washington's closest Arab ally, but Mubarak may be losing U.S. support. The Obama administration has publicly counseled Mubarak to introduce reforms and refrain from using violence against the protesters.

Police fired water cannons at one of the country's leading pro-democracy advocates, Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed El Baradei, and his supporters as they joined the latest wave of protests after noon prayers. They used batons to beat some of El Baradei's supporters, who surrounded him to protect him.

A soaking wet El Baradei was trapped inside a mosque while hundreds of riot police laid siege to it, firing tear gas in the streets around so no one could leave. Tear gas canisters set several cars ablaze outside the mosque and several people fainted and suffered burns.

"We are the ones who will bring change," said 21-year-old Ahmed Sharif, one of scores who were with El Bardei. "If we do nothing, things will get worse. Change must come," he screamed through a surgical mask he wore to ward off the tear gas.

Abeer Ahmed, a 31-year-old woman who showed up for El Baradei with her toddler, said she has a law degree but makes a living cleaning homes.

"Nothing good is left in the country," she said. "Oppression is growing."

In the upscale Mohandiseen neighborhood, at least 10,000 were marching toward the city center chanting "down, down with Mubarak." The crowd later swelled to about 20,000 as they made their way through residential areas.

Residents looking on from apartment block windows waved and whistled in support. Some waved the red, white and black Egyptian flags. The marchers were halted as they tried to cross a bridge over the Nile, when police fired dozens of tear gas canisters.

In downtown Cairo, people on balconies tossed cans of Pepsi and bottles of water to protesters on the streets below to douse their eyes, as well as onions and lemons to sniff, to cut the sting of the tear gas.

At Ramsis square in the heart of the city, thousands clashed with police as they left the al-Nur mosque after prayers. Police used tear gas and rubber bullets and some of the tear gas was fired inside the mosque where women were taking refuge. Hundreds later broke through police cordons to head to the main downtown square, Tahrir. But they were stopped by police firing tear gas.

Near Tahrir, hundreds of riot police in a cluster moved in, anticipating the arrival of large crowds. A short while later, thousands of protesters marched across a bridge over the Nile and moved toward the square, where police began firing tear gas at them.

Later, television footage showed a chaotic and violent scene where protesters were throwing rocks down on police from a highway overpass near Tahrir Square, while a police vehicle sped through the crowd spraying tear gas on demonstrators.

Clusters of riot police with helmets and shields were stationed around the city, at the entrances to bridges across the Nile and other key intersections.

The troubles were preventing trains from coming to Cairo, with their last stop now before reaching the city are south and north of the capital, security officials.

Mubarak has not been seen publicly or heard from since the protests began Tuesday. While he may still have a chance to ride out this latest challenge, his choices are limited, and all are likely to lead to a loosening of his grip on power.

Mubarak has not said yet whether he will stand for another six-year term as president in elections this year. He has never appointed a deputy and is thought to be grooming his son Gamal to succeed him despite popular opposition. According to leaked U.S. memos, hereditary succession also does not meet with the approval of the powerful military.

Mubarak and his government have shown no hint of concessions to the protesters who want political reform and a solution to rampant poverty, unemployment and rising food prices.

Continuing the heavy-handed methods used by the security forces the past three days would probably buy the Mubarak regime a little time but could strengthen the resolve of the protesters and win them popular sympathy.

The alternative is to introduce a package of political and economic reforms that would end his party's monopoly on power and ensure that the economic liberalization policies engineered by his son and heir apparent Gamal over the past decade benefit the country's poor majority.

He could also lift the emergency laws in force since 1981, loosen restrictions on the formation of political parties and publicly state whether he will stand for another six-year term in elections this year.

Friday's demonstrations were energized by the return of E lBaradei on Thursday night, when he said he was ready to lead the opposition toward a regime change.

They also got a boost from the endorsement of the country's biggest opposition group, the Islamic fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood. The group called its supporters to join the protests on Friday.

The Brotherhood, outlawed since 1954, is Egypt's largest and best organized opposition group. It seeks to establish an Islamic state. It renounced violence in the 1970s and has since been a peaceful movement. Its network of social and medical services has traditionally won it popular support, but its detractors say its involvement in politics has chipped away at its support base.

It made a surprisingly strong showing in 2005 parliamentary elections, winning 20 percent of the legislature's seats, but it failed to win a single seat in the latest election late last year. The vote is widely thought to have been marred, rigged to ensure that Mubarak's ruling party win all but a small fraction of the chamber's 518 seats.

Egypt's four primary Internet providers — Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr — all stopped moving data in and out of the country at 12:34 a.m., according to a network security firm monitoring the traffic. Telecom experts said Egyptian authorities could have engineered the unprecedented cutoff with a simple change to the instructions for the companies' networking equipment.

The Internet appeared to remain cut off in Cairo but was restored in some smaller cities Friday morning. Cell-phone text and Blackberry Messenger services were all cut or operating sporadically in what appeared to be a move by authorities to disrupt the organization of demonstrations.

Egyptians outside the country were posting updates on Twitter after getting information in voice calls from people inside the country. Many urged their friends to keep up the flow of information over the phones.

A Facebook page run by protesters listed their demands. They want Mubarak to declare that neither he nor his son will stand for next presidential elections; dissolve the parliament holds new elections; end to emergency laws giving police extensive powers of arrest and detention; release all prisoners including protesters and those who have been in jail for years without charge or trial; and immediately fire the interior minister.

Authorities appear to have been disrupting social networking sites, used as an organizing tool by protesters, throughout the week. Facebook, Twitter and Blackberry Messenger have all seen interruptions.

Associated Press reporter Hadeel Al-Shalchi contributed to this report from Cairo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110128/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest

Thousands demand ouster of Yemen's president

Ahmed Al-haj, Associated Press

ADEN, Yemen – Drawing inspiration from the revolt in Tunisia, thousands of Yemenis fed up with their president's 32-year rule demanded his ouster Saturday in a noisy demonstration that appeared to be the first large-scale public challenge to the strongman.

Clashes also broke out Saturday in Algeria, as opposition activists there tried to copy the tactics of their Tunisian neighbors, who forced their longtime leader to flee the country more than a week ago.

The protests in Yemen appeared to be the first of their kind. The nation's 23 million citizens have many grievances: they are the poorest people in the Arab world, the government is widely seen as corrupt and is reviled for its alliance with the United States in fighting al-Qaida, there are few political freedoms and the country is rapidly running out of water.

Still, calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down had been a red line that few dissenters dared to test.

In a reflection of the tight grip Saleh's government and its forces have in the capital — outside the city, that control thins dramatically — Saturday's demonstration did not take place in the streets, but was confined to the grounds of the University of Sanaa.

Around 2,500 students, activists and opposition groups gathered there and chanted slogans against the president, comparing him to Tunisia's ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, whose people were similarly enraged by economic woes and government corruption.

"Get out get out, Ali. Join your friend Ben Ali," the crowds chanted.

One of the organizers, Fouad Dahaba, said the demonstration was only a beginning and they will not stop until their demands are met.

"We will march the streets of Sanaa, to the heart of Sanaa and to the presidential palace. The coming days will witness an escalation," said Dahaba, an Islamist lawmaker and head of the teachers' union.

Making good on that pledge will be difficult. Like other entrenched regimes in the Arab world, Yemen's government shows little tolerance for dissent and the security forces — bolstered by U.S. military aid intended for fighting the country's virulent al-Qaida offshoot — are quick to crack down.

Police fired tear gas at the demonstrators, whose grievances include proposed constitutional changes that would allow the president to rule for a lifetime. Around 30 protesters were detained, a security official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.

Since the Tunisian turmoil, Saleh has ordered income taxes slashed in half and has instructed his government to control prices. He also ordered a heavy deployment of anti-riot police and soldiers to several key areas in the capital and its surroundings to prevent any riots.

Nearly half the population lives below the poverty line of $2 a day and doesn't have access to proper sanitation. Less than a tenth of the roads are paved. Tens of thousands have been displaced from their homes by conflict, flooding the cities.

The government is riddled with corruption, has little control outside the capital, and its main source of income — oil — could run dry in a decade.

Protests were also held in the southern port city of Aden, where calls for Saleh to step down were heard along with the more familiar slogans for southern secession. Police fired on demonstrators, injuring four, and detained 22 others in heavy clashes.

Military forces responded harshly to two similar protests a day earlier in four cities in the nearby southern province of Lahj, even firing mortar shells that killed one woman. The response forced residents to flee.

Besides the battle with al-Qaida's local franchise, which has taken root in the country's remote and lawless mountains, Yemen's government is also trying to suppress the secessionist movement and a separate on-and-off rebellion in the north.

Adding popular street unrest to that mix could present the government with a new challenge, though it has shown itself to be resilient even to the occasional al-Qaida attacks to penetrate the capital's defenses.

In Algeria, meanwhile, helmeted riot police armed with batons and shields clashed with rock- and chair-throwing protesters who tried to march in the capital in defiance of a ban on public gatherings.

At least 19 people were injured, the government said, but an opposition party official put the figure at more than 40.

Protest organizers at the democratic opposition party RCD draped a Tunisian flag next to the Algerian flag on a balcony of the party headquarters where the march was to begin in the capital, Algiers.

Riot police, backed by a helicopter and crowd-control trucks, ringed the exit to ensure marchers couldn't leave the building — and striking those who tried to come out to take part. Outside, some young men waved the national flag and chanted "Assassin Power!"

"I am a prisoner in the party's headquarters," said Said Sadi, a former presidential candidate who leads the Rally for Culture and Democracy party, said through a megaphone from a balcony window.

Aomar Ouali contributed to this report from Algiers, Algeria.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110123/ap_on_re_us/tunisia_spreading_protests

Mideast asks after Tunisian riots: Where next?

Hadeel Al-shalchi And Brian Murphy, Associated Press

CAIRO – The stunning collapse of Tunisia's long-ruling president brought cheers from the streets and a flood of messages on Middle East websites Saturday with one overriding question: Could it happen next in Egypt or other iron-fist regimes in the region?

There's little doubt that Tunisia's people-power uprising — a potent mix of economic gripes and demands for political freedoms — will embolden similar calls in a region dominated by authoritarian leaders and ruling monarchs. Protesters in Cairo mocked Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and trade union activists in Jordan chanted: "Tunisia is teaching us a lesson."

But chances appear far less likely of a rapid domino-style political housecleaning such as what occurred in Eastern Europe after the Cold War, experts say.

Many states with deep political rifts, such as Egypt and Iran, maintain vast security forces heavily vested in the status quo and have shown no signs of breaking ranks to join protesters. Other hard-line regimes like Syria come down harshly and swiftly against dissent.

And smaller states with well-organized political opposition, including Kuwait and Bahrain, provide their native citizens with wide-ranging social benefits that few would dare put at risk with a full-scale mutiny.

"We only have to look at Iran to see the challenges for anyone thinking they can bring change just by going to the streets," said Sami Alfaraj, director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies, referring to the massive protests that were eventually crushed after the disputed re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009.

Still, he said it's a mistake to underestimate the power of the upheaval in Tunisia.

"This gets planted in minds that it is possible. They believe it can happen in their country," Alfaraj said. "Leaders cannot just dismiss that."

Friday's ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali followed the country's largest protests in generations and weeks of escalating unrest among young people and others who have seen relatively little benefit from Tunisia's recent economic growth.

Those issues have echoed across the region as many other regimes face similar complaints.

In Jordan, more than 5,000 people joined rallies on Friday to protest rising prices and demand the removal of the prime minister. King Abdullah II last week ordered reductions in prices and taxes on some foods and fuels to help ease the burden on the poor.

Messages congratulating the Tunisian people also flooded the Internet on Twitter, Facebook and blogs in the latest example of the web's powerful role to galvanize and organize political movements. Many people replaced their profile pictures with red Tunisian flags.

Saudi King Abdullah's palace said the ousted president and his family were welcomed in the kingdom with a wish for "peace and security to return to the people of Tunisia." Other Arab leaders issued few official statements in a possible sign of the tense political climate. The Arab League urged calm, saying it was "the beginning of one era and the end of another."

"Now the bell is ringing and it should be a reminder to other leaders that people are fed up. They need political freedoms and serious economic reforms, that there must be an end to corruption and nepotism," Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi said.

In Cairo, a small group of activists gathered outside the Tunisian Embassy for a second day and drew comparisons between the North African countries: claims of chronic corruption and poverty, a heavy-handed security force and limits on the press and Internet.

The protesters outnumbered 5-to-1 by riot police — chanted "soon we will follow Tunis" and other slogans against the government of Mubarak, who has ruled for three decades.

"What happened in Tunis gave hope to all of us that fear can be broken and that dictatorships can be defeated," said activist Mohammed Adel.

Another demonstrator, Ashraf Balba, said the time for change will come.

"The spark will come at a time God will decide, and at that time the world will be surprised with the events in Egypt," he said. "We are more than ready."

It's this street-born nature of Tunisia's revolt that also has captivated the region, where the standard script of opposition has been Islamic-inspired movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or Lebanon's Hezbollah challenging Western-backed governments.

Jordan-based analyst Mouin Rabbani, who closely follows Palestinian affairs, noted the popular uprising in Tunisia differed because it wasn't led by a political movement.

"The factors that led to the beginning of the process in Tunisia exist through the region. But there specific factors, like the extraordinary stupidity and arrogance to which Ben Ali responded to the protests," Rabbani said. "But I don't think because Ben Ali fell, others are next."

Iran's state-run media gave matter-of-fact coverage to the Tunisian rebellion and left out any analysis or commentary.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast, however, urged Tunisian authorities to heed the "demand of the Tunisian people."

Iranian authorities, meanwhile, have waged an all-out battle on political opposition since the protests and clashes after Ahmadinejad's re-election. It was the country's worst internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — perhaps the closest modern parallel to the events in Tunisia.

Mohsen Sazegara, a U.S.-based leader of the Iranian opposition, dedicated 15 minutes of his daily webcast to comparing Tunisia to Iran's "Green Movement." He concluded that the Tunisians succeeded because many members of the army and police refused to battle protesters.

The events in Tunisia, however, found an unreceptive audience in Moammar Gadhafi, who has ruled neighboring Libya for more than 40 years.

In a speech on national television, the Libyan leader criticized the loss of life and questioned the wisdom of ousting one president to replace him with another, and said the Tunisians were making a mistake by causing chaos in their country.

"What reason is there to fight?" asked Gadhafi, dressed in an uncharacteristically demure black suit. "Tunisia's situation has never really been so bad that it deserved such a reaction from the people."

The uprising in Tunis also had ripples in Sudan, where voters in the south were marking the of a weeklong independence referendum that is widely expected to lead to the creation of the world's newest country.

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted on an international indictment for war crimes in the western region of Darfur, also faces a rebellion in the west and east, and internal opposition.

A recent hike in prices of oil and basic commodities had caused protests in Sudan universities and calls for resignation of local officials. The economic crunch is expected to increase with the likely southern separation.

Similar cries came from the streets in Damascus, where President Bashar Assad has not matched his liberal economic policies with any political reforms.

"Rulers in the Arab world should beware, they should work to bring down food prices and allay people's concerns otherwise they could meet the same fate," said Haitham Ahmad, a merchant.

Activists in the tiny Gulf nation of Bahrain — where majority Shiites have challenged Sunni rulers for greater rights — were denied a license to hold a rally and gathered instead at the Tunisian Embassy to silently place flowers in solidarity with the rioters.

Murphy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writers contributing to this report: Sarah El Deeb in Khartoum, Sudan; Jenny Barchfield in Paris; Dale Gavlak and Jamal Halaby in Amman, Jordan; Hamza Hendawi in Cairo; Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran, Iran; Elizabeth A. Kennedy and Bassem Mroue in Beirut; Zeina Karam in Damascus, Syria, and Diaa Hadid in Jerusalem.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110115/ap_on_re_mi_ea/tunisia_arab_world

突尼西亞總統前兩天才揚言準備在2014「任期」屆滿時「功成身退」。本來想揶揄他幾句，還來不及轉貼新聞報導，今天就看到他下台的消息。許多獨裁者就是不曉得知所進退，最後弄出落荒而逃，甚至於身敗名裂的戲碼。戒之！戒之！

「他山之石」的典故還是適用。

Tunisians drive leader from power in mass uprising

Elaine Ganley And Bouazza Ben Bouazza, Associated Press

TUNIS, Tunisia – After 23 years of iron-fisted rule, the president of Tunisia was driven from power Friday by violent protests over soaring unemployment and corruption. Virtually unprecedented in modern Arab history, the populist uprising sent an ominous message to authoritarian governments that dominate the region.

The office of Saudi King Abdullah confirmed early Saturday that ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his family had landed in Saudi Arabia, after several hours of mystery over his whereabouts. "As a result of the Saudi kingdom's respect for the exceptional circumstances the Tunisian people are going through, and with its wish for peace and security to return to the people of Tunisia, we have welcomed" him, the statement said.

Tunisians buoyant over Ben Ali's ouster faced uncertainly, however, about what's next for the North African nation. The country was under the caretaker leadership of the prime minister who took control, the role of the army in the transition was unknown, and it was uncertain whether Ben Ali's departure would be enough to restore calm.

The ouster followed the country's largest protests in generations and weeks of escalating unrest, sparked by one man's suicide and fueled by social media, cell phones and young people who have seen relatively little benefit from Tunisia's recent economic growth. Thousands of demonstrators from all walks of life rejected Ben Ali's promises of change and mobbed Tunis, the capital, to demand that he leave.

The government said at least 23 people have been killed in the riots, but opposition members put the death toll at more than three times that.

On Friday, police repeatedly clashed with protesters, some of whom climbed onto the entrance roof of the dreaded Interior Ministry, widely believed for years to be a place where the regime's opponents were tortured.

With clouds of tear gas and black smoke drifting over the city's whitewashed buildings, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi went on state television to announce that he was assuming power in this North African nation known mostly for its wide sandy beaches and ancient ruins.

"I take over the responsibilities temporarily of the leadership of the country at this difficult time to help restore security," Ghannouchi said in a solemn statement on state television. "I promise ... to respect the constitution, to work on reforming economic and social issues with care and to consult with all sides."

The prime minister, a longtime ally of the president, suggested that Ben Ali had willingly handed over control, but the exact circumstances were unclear.

In a string of last-ditch efforts to tamp down the unrest, Ben Ali dissolved the government and promised legislative elections within six months — a pledge that appeared to open at least the possibility of a new government. Before his removal of power was announced, he declared a state of emergency, including a curfew that was in effect Friday night and was to be lifted at 7 a.m. Saturday.

Isolated bursts of gunfire broke a general quiet in the evening. But overnight, in a sign that Ben Ali's departure hadn't fully restored calm, plainclothes police were seen hustling some people off the streets of Tunis: One was clubbed, another was dragged on the ground.

European tour companies moved thousands of tourists out of the country. Foreign airlines halted service to Tunisia, and said the country's airspace had been temporarily shut down.

Ben Ali's downfall sent a potentially frightening message to autocratic leaders across the Arab world, especially because he did not seem especially vulnerable until very recently.

He managed the economy of his small country of 10 million better than many other Middle Eastern nations grappling with calcified economies and booming young populations. He turned Tunisia into a beach haven for tourists, helping create an area of stability in volatile North Africa. There was a lack of civil rights and little or no freedom of speech, but a better quality of life for many than in neighboring countries such as Algeria and Libya.

Ben Ali had won frequent praise from abroad for presiding over reforms to make the economy more competitive and attract business. Growth last year was at 3.1 percent.

Unemployment, however, was officially measured at 14 percent, and was far higher — 52 percent — among the young. Despair among job-seeking young graduates was palpable.

The riots started after an educated but jobless 26-year-old committed suicide in mid-December when police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he was selling without a permit. His desperate act hit a nerve, sparked copycat suicides and focused generalized anger against the regime into a widespread, outright revolt.

The president tried vainly to hold onto power. On Thursday night he went on television to promise not to run for re-election in 2014 and slashed prices on key foods such as sugar, bread and milk.

Protesters gathered peacefully Friday in front of the Interior Ministry, but six hours after the demonstration began hundreds of police with shields and riot gear moved in. Helmeted police fired dozens of rounds of tear gas and kicked and clubbed unarmed protesters — one of whom cowered on the ground, covering his face.

A few youths were spotted throwing stones, but most demonstrated calmly. Protesters were of all ages and from all walks of life, from students holding sit-ins in the middle of the street to doctors in white coats and black-robed lawyers waving posters.

"A month ago, we didn't believe this uprising was possible," said Beya Mannai, a geology professor at the University of Tunis. "But the people rose up."

"My first reaction is relief," said Dr. Souha Naija, a resident radiologist at Charles Nicole Hospital. "He's gone. ... I finally feel free."

"They got the message. The people don't want a dictator." However, she voiced concern for the future because, officially at least, Ben Ali vacated power only temporarily.

"It's ambiguous," she said.

Nejib Chebbi, a founder of the main legal opposition party, said the dramatic developments do not amount to a coup d'etat.

"It's an unannounced resignation," Chebbi said by telephone. To declare a permanent absence of a head of state, such as in a coup, elections would have to be held within 60 days, he said. "So they declare a temporary vacating of power."

U.S. President Barack Obama said he applauded the courage and dignity of protesting Tunisians, and urged all parties to keep calm and avoid violence.

Arabs across the region celebrated news of the Tunisian uprising on Twitter, Facebook and blogs. Thousands of tweets congratulating the Tunisian people flooded the Internet, and many people changed their profile pictures to Tunisian flags.

Egyptian activists opposed to President Hosni Mubarak's three-decade regime looked to the events in Tunisia with hope. About 50 gathered outside the Tunisian Embassy in Cairo to celebrate with singing and dancing. They chanted, "Ben Ali, tell Mubarak a plane is waiting for him, too!"

Meanwhile, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists reported that three journalists detained in Tunisia had been released: bloggers Azyz Amamy and Slim Amamou, who were arrested on Jan. 7, and Radio Kalima correspondent Nizar Ben Hasan, who had been taken from his home Tuesday.

CPJ called for the release of journalist Fahem Boukadous, who it said is serving a four-year prison sentence for his coverage of 2008 labor protests.

Earlier Friday, swirling speculation about Ben Ali's location had reached such a fevered pitch that the governments of France and Malta — just two of several countries where he was speculated to be heading — put out statements saying they have had no requests to accommodate him.

One French official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the French government did not want Ben Ali there.

Ghannouchi is a 69-year-old economist who has been prime minister since 1999 and is among the best-known faces of Tunisia's government. He did not say anything about a coup or about the army being in charge.

Ben Ali, 74, came to power in a bloodless palace coup in 1987. He took over from a man formally called President-for-Life — Habib Bourguiba, the founder of modern-day Tunisia who set the Muslim country on a pro-Western course after independence from France in 1956.

Ben Ali removed Bourguiba from office for "incompetence," saying he had become too old, senile and sick to rule. Ben Ali promised then that his leadership would "open the horizons to a truly democratic and evolved political life."

But after a brief period of reforms, Tunisia's political evolution stopped.

Ben Ali consistently won elections with questionable tallies: In 2009, he was re-elected for a fifth five-year term with 89 percent of the vote — and that was the lowest official percentage of any of his victories. Before that vote, he had warned opponents they would face legal retaliation if they questioned the election's fairness.

U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks have called Tunisia a "police state" and described the corruption there, saying Ben Ali had lost touch with his people. Social networks like Facebook helped spread the comments to the delight of ordinary Tunisians, who have complained about the same issues for years.

Under Ben Ali, most opposition parties were illegal. Amnesty International said authorities infiltrated human rights groups and harassed dissenters. Reporters Without Borders described Ben Ali as a "press predator" who controlled the media.

There is little precedent in the Arab world for a ruler being ousted by street protests. In Sudan in 1985, a collapsing economy and other grievances sparked a popular uprising, although the government was eventually ousted by a military coup.

The closest parallel in the broader Middle East comes from Iran — which is not an Arab nation — where mass demonstrations helped topple the shah and usher in the Islamic Republic in 1979.

Tunisia's giant neighbor Algeria saw huge protests before it was shaken by a military coup in 1992, with a five-man leadership put in place after the army canceled the nation's first multiparty legislative elections, which a Muslim fundamentalist party was poised to win. The party, the Islamic Salvation Front, became a vehicle for popular dissent.

There were also massive demonstrations in Lebanon in 2005, dubbed the "Cedar Revolution," but those were directed against Syrian influence in the country and not the Lebanese government per se. The protests led to the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon and the resignation of Lebanon's pro-Syrian prime minister and fresh elections.

Al-Qaida's North African offshoot appeared to try to capitalize on the Tunisian unrest, offering its support for protesters this week. There has been no sign of Islamic extremist involvement in the rioting.

Nicolas Garriga and Oleg Cetinic in Tunis, Angela Doland, Greg Keller and Jamey Keaten in Paris and Hadeel Al-Shalchi in Cairo contributed to this report.