在【新聞對談】網頁上看到一個聳動的標題：《國際權威雜誌經濟學人直言台灣經濟被中國拖垮》，不免上網搜尋一下。自由時報、替自由時報工作的羅倩宜、和使用該標題的VOLTES等公然說謊，並不值得評論。這篇報導關於台灣經濟情況的分析有參考價值。轉貼於此。

Taiwan's economy

Mirror, mirror on the wall

Feb 12th 2009, TAIPEI, From The Economist print edition

The ugliest economy of them all?

WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global

slump? In its back pages and on its website The

Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on

industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the

biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to

December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual

rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be

grim.

Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent

economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western

consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global

demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to

January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a

drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports

also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore

partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s

competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong

currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by

more than 40% against the South Korean won since the

start of 2008.

Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past

year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China

(over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic

components, and have been hit by massive Chinese

destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring

its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based

economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s

mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and

semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the

global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan

Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s

biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of

capacity.

Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic

spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in

December, and the true picture may be far bleaker.

Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar

new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average

wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past

year. Many companies are ordering employees to take

unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11%

in the year to December.

Even before the financial crisis, household spending had

seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian

tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power

are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m

Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the

island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China

to run factories there. Several economists are now

forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or

more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in

Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking

firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.

To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest

rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The

government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure

investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth

around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending,

the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth

NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical

about whether this will produce much new spending.

According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan

Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout

scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients

spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal

evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department

stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the

lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.

In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the

economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights

between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based

businessmen came home every quarter instead of every

six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now,

however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely

to encourage households to save rather than spend.

轉貼自：

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13109874