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淺談「一個中國原則」
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胡卜凱

由於中國的崛起以及胡溫體制的穩固,中國領導人清楚了解中國和他/她們已經取得,也掌控了中國和自己在國際和國內應該有的地位。

「一國兩制」看來已不再具有中國當局過去對台「政策宣示」的地位。取而代之的是胡錦濤總書記在今年所發表「胡六點」中的第一點 -- 一個中國原則

我的解讀是

接受一個中國原則」的條件,中國領導人願意給予台灣人民和台灣政府充分的禮遇合作、和/或某種程度的實利,以及所謂的「國際活動」空間。

「一個中國原則」的「詮釋權」毫無疑義的在中國領導人手中。不論「九二共識」或「一中各表」是否曾經存在,在當前它只是「糖衣」「台階」(台灣當政者)「自欺欺民」的羊頭(遮羞布)。因此,所謂接受一個中國原則」的「接受」一詞或概念,也就必須實際表現或表達在和各種兩岸事務相關的官方文件及國際儀式所使用的文字上。

再說白一點,中華民國」或蘊含「中華民國」的相關文字,如國立國家總統」之類,需要在兩岸往來或國際事務的官方文件中消失。我們可以把這個條件稱之為「法理統一」或「象徵統一」。至於台灣政府關起門來怎麼說,中國當局今後可能不會怎麼在意。

面對和接受現實一向是處理問題和解決問題的唯一方式。而任何一個國家和社會所必須處理和解決的首要問題是孫中山先生所說的「民生問題」,也就是吃飯問題。其他如主權尊嚴之類,只是政客騙選票或貪污的道具。

在金融風暴後,各國經濟進入萎縮期。大概至少一兩年,甚至三五年才能回復正常。過去近40年來做為中華民國立國基礎的出口貿易,也就被金融風暴帶來的土石流沖刷得搖搖欲墜。在這種情況下,台灣(政府和人民)已經完全沒有任何拿翹或「作態」的能力和空間。

我不是說中國一定能夠幫助台灣渡過這次經濟危機。我說的是︰

中國是唯一能夠幫助台灣渡過這次經濟危機的資源和希望。

如果還有人不習慣我以上所詮釋的一個中國原則,趕快習慣吧。你/妳的生活福祉和精神健康就靠它了。



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希拉蕊政策演說節錄 -- 美國國務院網頁
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美國新任國務卿希拉蕊於02/13/2009,在紐約「亞洲學會」發表政策演說:《美國與亞洲:兩個橫跨大西洋和橫跨太平洋的勢力》(U.S. and Asia: Two Transatlantic and

Transpacific Powers)。除了她將「美國」和「亞洲」以相等地位(two powers)並列,不免自大、失禮、或「臭美」外,全文可說中肯。

原文請見:

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/117333.htm

以下節錄有關美國亞洲政策重點和她談到中國的部份

A half century ago when the Asia Society was founded,

Asia was frozen in a cold war, wracked by poverty, and

seemingly destined for desolation. Few in or outside of

Asia’s borders foresaw anything but a future of conflict,

occupation, and despair. Today, the countries I will visit

are at peace. Asia is on the cutting edge of so many of

the world’s innovations and trends. It is a contributor to

global culture, a global economic power, and a region of

vital importance to the United States today and into our

future.

...

And I’ve seen also the skyscrapers and factories, the

urban corridors and high-tech campuses, the research

facilities and modern hospitals – a continent where, now,

more often than not, the rule of law and free elections

have become or are in the process of becoming the norm,

where entrepreneurship and innovation have transformed

economies into global economic powers.

Asia has influenced world civilization for millennia, as it

has our own culture. Our nation is home to 13 million 

Asian American citizens, and our daily life is so enriched

by Asian literature and art, by music and movies, by food

and architecture, medicine and science, technology and

values.

Today, it is tempting to focus our attention on the tensions

and perils of our interdependence, but I prefer to view our

connectedness as an opportunity for dynamic and 

productive partnerships that can address both the

challenge and the promise of this new century.

And that’s what I want to talk about today, how the United

States is committed to a new era of diplomacy and

development in which we will use smart power to work

with historic allies and emerging nations to find regional

and global solutions to common global problems.

As I’ve said before, America cannot solve the problems of

the world alone, and the world cannot solve them without

America.

At the same time, given the realities of today’s world, we

can no longer approach our foreign policy solely country

by country, or simply by carving the world into separate

regions. With smart power, we will seek to build

partnerships that transcend geographic and political

boundaries.

In the months ahead, I will press for stronger bilateral,

regional, and global cooperation when I meet with leaders

of Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, just

as I will seek more robust engagement in my discussions

with Asian leaders in Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul, and Beijing

next week.

...

Our relationships with each of the countries I’m visiting,

and with all of our partners and allies throughout Asia and

the Pacific, are indispensable to our security and

prosperity. When we consider the gravest global threats

confronting us – financial instability and economic

dislocation, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction,

food security and health emergencies, climate change

and energy vulnerability, stateless criminal cartels and 

human exploitation – it is clear that these threats do not

stop at borders or oceans. Pandemics threaten school

children in Jakarta and Jacksonville. Global financial

crises shrink bank accounts in Sapporo and San

Francisco. The dangers posed by nuclear proliferation

create worries in Guangzhou as well as Washington. And

climate change affects the livelihoods of farmers in

China’s Hunan province and in America’s Midwest. These

dangers affect us all, and therefore we all must play a role

in addressing them.

So I leave for Asia ready to deliver a message about

America’s desire for more rigorous and persistent

commitment and engagement, ready to work with leaders

in Asia to resolve the economic crisis that threatens the

Pacific as much as any other region, ready to strengthen

our historic partnerships and alliances while developing

deeper bonds with all nations, ready to help prevent the

proliferation of nuclear weapons in Asia, ready to expand

our combined efforts on 21st century challenges like

climate change and clean energy, pandemics, and income

inequality.

In the Obama Administration, we are also ready to reach

beyond ministerial buildings and official meeting halls, as

important as those are. We’re ready to engage civil

society to strengthen the foundations needed to support

good governance, free elections, and a free press, wider

educational opportunities, stronger healthcare systems,

religious tolerance, and human rights.

And we are ready to listen. Actively listening to our

partners isn’t just a way of demonstrating respect. It can

also be a source of ideas to fuel our common efforts. Too

often in the recent past, our government has acted

reflexively before considering available facts and

evidence, or hearing the perspectives of others. But

President Obama and I are committed to a foreign policy

that is neither impulsive nor ideological, one that values

what others have to say. And when we have differences,

which we will, we will discuss them frankly and specify

those which limit our capacity to cooperate. As part of our

dialogues, we will hold ourselves and others accountable

as we work to expand human rights and create a world

that respects those rights, one where Nobel Peace Prize

winner Aung San Suu Kyi can live freely in her own

country, where the people of North Korea can freely

choose their own leaders, and where Tibetans and all

Chinese people can enjoy religious freedom without fear

of prosecution.

...

Let me start with the global financial crisis that hit us first

and hit us deeply. Across the United States today,

families are losing jobs, homes, savings, and dreams. But

this is not our crisis alone. Its repercussions are also

being felt in parts of Asia and elsewhere around the world.

We have recently heard forecasts from South Korea’s

new finance minister that their economy will shrink by 2

percent this year, with 200,000 jobs potentially lost. A

Chinese Government survey of villages last week

reported that 20 million of the nation’s 130 million migrant

workers are unemployed. In Japan, a new analysis

predicts a larger economic contraction than previously

forecast. Indonesia’s exports fell by more than 20 percent

in December as growth estimates have also fallen. And

Taiwan’s economy reported a record 44 percent drop in

exports. Throughout Asia, the demand for durable goods

is way down.

The global financial crisis requires every nation to look

inward for solutions, but none of us can afford to become

so introspective that we overlook the critical role that

international partnerships must play in stabilizing the

world’s economy and putting all of us back on the path to

prosperity. And we cannot respond with a race to erect

trade and other barriers. We must remain committed to a

system of open and fair trade.

...

Global solutions are essential to addressing climate

change and the need for clean sources of energy. Now,

climate change is not just an environmental nor an energy

issue, it also has implications for our health and our

economies and our security, all wrapped up in one.

...

Now, you may have heard me describe the portfolio of the

State Department as including two of national security’s

three Ds: defense, diplomacy, and development. Each is

essential to advancing our interests and our security. Yet

too often, development is regarded as peripheral to our

larger foreign policy objectives. ...

...

Let me now give you a brief rundown of some of the key

issues that I will be addressing next week, country by

country, starting with my first stop in Japan.

...

As members of the Asia Society, you know very well how

important China is and how essential it is that we have a

positive, cooperative relationship. It is vital to peace and

prosperity, not only in the Asia-Pacific region, but

worldwide. Our mutual economic engagement with China 

was evident during the economic growth of the past two

decades. It is even clearer now in economic hard times

and in the array – excuse me – in the array of global

challenges we face, from nuclear security to climate

change to pandemic disease and so much else.

Now, some believe that China on the rise is, by definition,

an adversary. To the contrary, we believe that the United

States and China can benefit from and contribute to each

other’s successes. It is in our interest to work harder to

build on areas of common concern and shared

opportunities. China has already asserted itself in positive

ways as chair of the Six-Party Talks and in its

participation in international peacekeeping efforts. And

our two countries, I’m happy to say, will resume mid-level

military-to-military discussions later this month. And we

look forward to further improved relations across the

Taiwan Strait.

Even with our differences, the United States will remain

committed to pursuing a positive relationship with China,

one that we believe is essential to America’s future

peace, progress, and prosperity.

---

 

 



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美情報總監布萊爾「為兩岸鼓掌」 -- 張宗智
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美國新任國務卿希拉蕊副國務卿史坦伯格、和全國情報總監布萊爾最近相繼發表關於中國、兩岸、以及中美關係的談話。其中最直接的,可說是布萊爾所說的

台灣必須了解,台灣的長期安全仰賴與中國達成某種安排,而非軍事防禦。 

我在2004年一篇文章中有以下這段話

但是在台灣經貿、中國經貿、和全球經貿的互動及交叉作用下,簡單的說,"WTO"的架構下,如果台灣不和中國在經濟層面上,取得某種程度的諒解和合作窮途末路應該不算一個對台灣遠景的誇張描述(胡卜凱

2004)

這段話中的取得某種程度的諒解和合作...」可說與布萊爾的表達方式不謀而合 

 

參考文章:

* 胡卜凱 2004,《正視「一國兩制」的選項》,http://www.fokas.com.tw/news1/newslist.php?id=506

******************************************

美情報總監布萊爾「為兩岸鼓掌」

聯合報華盛頓特派員張宗智/十二日電02/14/09

美國新任全國情報總監布萊爾十二日在國會表示,馬英九總統當選後的兩岸關係發展,是美國近年所見「最正面的發展」;他同時頗耐人尋味地指出,台灣的長期安全仰賴與中國達成某種安排,而非軍事防禦 

布萊爾在參議院情報委員會上,就美國國家安全威脅做報告時表示,讓美、中關係緊張的台灣問題已實質緩和;台灣總統馬英九去年五月就任後已與北京恢復對話,兩岸領導人對維持較不具衝突性的關係也審慎樂觀。 

委員會主席范士丹問到兩岸關係現況時,布萊爾表示,馬總統當選後的兩岸關係發展,是美國近年所見「最正面的發展」,馬政府和中國(在改善兩岸關係上)在一些實質問題上採取的作法,都令人鼓舞;為兩岸利益而發展出某些動能非常重要,「我也為兩岸採取的那些措施鼓掌」。 

布萊爾說,美國在兩岸事務上的一大要務,就是確保兩岸不使用軍事手段,不起衝突;維持兩岸平衡也是台灣關係法的要求。因此,不能讓台灣毫無防禦能力,以致對中國唯命是從;也不能讓中國隨心所欲欺凌台灣。 

布萊爾接著話鋒一轉,說道:「台灣必須了解,台灣的長期安全仰賴與中國達成某種安排,而非軍事防禦。 

美國對解決台灣問題的終極立場,就是必須得到兩岸人民的同意,和平解決,其間並無主從關係,因此布萊爾這項說法,頗耐人尋味。 

布萊爾說,如果美國能正確維持兩岸這種「平衡」,接下來解決兩岸問題,都會是用政治和人民間互動的方式。 

布萊爾表示,過一段時間兩岸就會在給台灣國際空間的議題上做成安排,這也可給中國保證:「一中政策是實事求是的政策。 

但布萊爾也強調,為可能發生的台海衝突做好準備,仍是解放軍現代化的動力,中國的安全利益,也擴展至台灣以外 

2009/02/14 聯合報】

轉貼自︰

http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NATS3/4735801.shtml

 



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美副卿:維持一中非常重要 -- 張宗智
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美副卿:維持一中非常重要

聯合報/華盛頓特派員張宗智/十二日電 02/14/09

美國新任副國務卿史坦伯格十二日在就任後首次發表公開演講時說,美國的「一個中國」政策在兩黨認同下,是多年來最成功的外交政策之一,「維持一中政策的架構非常重要」。 

史坦伯格在國務院安排的一場演講中談到美國的外交政策,就國務卿希拉蕊.柯林頓廿日將訪問北京表示,此行將建立雙方的合作與正面關係,並深化在各項議題上的合作,也會向中國坦率陳明雙方的歧見。 

史坦伯格曾任柯林頓政府副國家安全顧問,多次與台灣前國安會秘書長丁懋時在紐約與波士頓會談,他在台灣記者問到美國新政府的兩岸政策時表示,處理兩岸問題是美國多年來最成功的外交政策之一,作法也獲有美國兩黨的共識。 

史坦伯格並表示,近來兩岸關係的發展,尤其是兩岸增強對話,並提供機會解決兩岸人民間的歧見,「我們所有人都感到鼓舞」。 

2009/02/14 聯合報】

轉貼自︰

http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NATS3/4735841.shtml

 



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