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「歐巴馬經濟振興方案」討論
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頭家
早早安(顏俊家)

開欄序言

阿卡迪亞網友在歐巴馬觀察】一欄中貼了《歐巴馬觀察》一文,介紹他的《歐巴馬八千億計畫是假貨:更加完整版》。我做了一些簡短的評論,也建議他另外闢一欄以便大家專注的討論「歐巴馬經濟振興方案」。

(【歐巴馬觀察】一欄主要關注他的領導風格政策方向、用人格局等等。歐巴馬的經濟或其他施政方案,應該主要出自其幕僚團隊間的協商和規劃。)

由於阿卡迪亞到目前沒有回應這個建議,我就主動的開了這一欄,將他的大作轉贴至此。希望大家稟持就事論事和言之成理的思考模式,踴躍參加討論。

論辯和討論是一個學習和成長過程,我建議大家有:

「如果不能批駁對方論點,至少會嚴肅考慮對方觀點。」

的雅量和習慣。



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How to Spend the Stimulus -- M. Grunwald
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推薦另一篇Michael Grunwald討論美國經濟振興方案的文章:

How to Spend the Stimulus

Michael Grunwald, 02/05/09

From:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1877385,00.html



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白宮及眾議院就「經濟振興方案」取得共識 -- 合眾社 D. Espo
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Congress, White House agree on $790B stimulus bill

DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) – Moving with lightning speed, the

Democratic-controlled Congress and White House agreed

Wednesday on a compromise$790 billion economic

stimulus bill designed to create millions of jobs in a nation

reeling from recession. President Barack Obama could

sign the measure within days.

"More than one-third of this bill is dedicated to providing

tax relief for middle-class families, cutting taxes for 95

percent of American workers," said Senate Majority

Leader Harry Reid at a Capitol news conference where

he was joined by moderates from both parties whose

support is essential for the legislation's final passage.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Reid's partner in

negotiations over more than 24 intense hours, initially

withheld her approval in a lingering disagreement over

federal funding for school construction. "We had to make

sure the investment in education" was in the bill, she said.

Obama, who has campaigned energetically for the

legislation, welcomed the agreement in a written

statement that said it would "save or create more than 3.5

million jobs and get our economy back on track."

The emerging legislation is at the core of Obama's

economic recovery program.

The president's signature tax cut was preserved — a

break for millions of lower- and middle-income taxpayers

of $400 per individual and $800 per couple. That's less

than the $500 and $1,000 the White House originally

sought, although officials said it would mean an estimated

$13 per week extra per paycheck.

Wage-earners who don't earn enough to pay income

taxes would get a reduction in the Social Security and

Medicare taxes they pay.

The bill also includes help for victims of the recession in

the form of expanded unemployment benefits, food

stamps, health coverage and more, as well as billions for

states that face the prospect of making deep cuts in

school aid and other programs.

Another provision will mean a one-time payment of $250

for millions of beneficiaries who receive Social Security,

Supplemental Security Income and veterans pensions and

disability, according to officials. They added that the

measure will include $46 billion for transportation projects

such as highway, bridge and mass transit construction.

The president also won money for two other

administration priorities — information technology in

health care, and "green jobs" to make buildings more

energy-efficient and reduce the nation's reliance on

foreign oil.

The bill "will be the beginning of the turnaround for the

American economy," predicted Sen. Joe Lieberman, the

independent from Connecticut.

Republicans couldn't have disagreed more.

"It appears that Democrats have made a bad bill worse by

reducing the tax relief for working families in order to pay

for more wasteful government spending," said Rep. John

Boehner of Ohio.

...

***************************

參議院同意後,接下來就要看執行能力和這個方案到底靈光不靈光了。 

 



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參議院通過「歐巴馬經濟振興方案」 -- 合眾社
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Senate passes Obama's economic recovery plan

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's economic

recovery plan has passed the Senate and is on its way to

difficult House-Senate negotiations. Just three

Republicans helped pass the plan on a 61-37 vote and

they're already signaling they'll play hardball to

preserve more than $108 billion in spending cuts made

last week in Senate dealmaking. Obama wants to restore

cuts in funds for school construction jobs and help for

cash-starved states.

Those cuts are among the major differences between the

$819 billion House version of Obama's plan and a Senate

bill costing $838 billion. Obama has warned of a

deepening economic crisis if Congress fails to act. He

wants a bill completed by the weekend.

The bill backed by the White House survived a key test

vote in the Senate Monday despite strong Republican

opposition, and Democratic leaders vowed to deliver

legislation for President Barack Obama's signature within

a few days.

Monday's vote was 61-36, one more than the 60 needed

to advance the measure toward Senate passage on

Tuesday. That in turn, will set the stage for possibly

contentious negotiations with the House on a final

compromise on legislation the president says is

desperately needed to tackle the worst economic crisis in

more than a generation.

The Senate vote occurred as the Obama administration

moved ahead on another key component of its economic

recovery plan. Officials said Treasury Secretary Timothy

Geithner would outline rules on Tuesday for $350 billion in

bailout funds designed to help the financial industry as well

as homeowners facing foreclosure.

Monday's vote was close but scarcely in doubt once the

White House and Democratic leaders agreed to trim about

$100 billion on Friday.

As a result, Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia

Snowe of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania broke

ranks to cast their votes to advance the bill.

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., battling a brain tumor,

made his first appearance in the Capitol since suffering a

seizure on Inauguration Day, and he joined all other

Democrats in support of the measure.

"There is no reason we can't do this by the end of the

week," said Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada. He

said he was prepared to hold the Senate in session into

the Presidents Day weekend if necessary, and cautioned

Republicans not to try and delay final progress.

He said passage would mark "the first step on the long

road to recovery."

Moments before the vote, the Congressional Budget

Office issued a new estimate that put the cost at $838

billion, an increase from the $827 billion figure from last

week.

"This bill has the votes to pass. We know that," conceded

Sen. John Thune, a South Dakota Republican who has

spoken daily in the Senate against the legislation.

As if to underscore its prospects for passage, the U.S.

Chamber of Commerce, a prominent and powerful

business group, issued a statement calling on the Senate

to advance the measure.

Even so, in the hours before Monday's vote, Republican

 opponents attacked it as too costly and unlikely to have

the desired effect on the economy. "This is a spending bill,

not a stimulus bill," said Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn.

All 36 votes in opposition were cast by Republicans.

The two remaining versions of the legislation are relatively

close in size — $838 billion in the Senate and $819 billion

in the House, and are similar in many respects.

Both include Obama's call for a tax cut for lower-income

wage earners, as well as billions for unemployment

benefits, food stamps, health care and other programs to

help victims of the worst recession in decades. In a bow

to the administration, they also include billions for

development of new information technology for the health

industry, and billions more to lay the groundwork for a new

environmentally friendly industry that would help reduce

the nation's dependence on foreign oil.

At the same time, the differences are considerable.

The measure nearing approval in the Senate calls for

more tax cuts and less spending than the House bill,

largely because it includes a $70 billion provision to

protect middle-class taxpayers from falling victim to the

alternative minimum tax, which was intended to make sure

the very wealthy don't avoid paying taxes.

Both houses provide for tax breaks for home buyers, but

the Senate's provision is far more generous. The Senate

bill also gives a tax break to purchasers of new cars.

Both houses provide $87 billion in additional funds for the

Medicaid program, which provides health care to the low

income. But the House and Senate differ on the formula to

be used in distributing the money, a dispute that pits

states against one another rather than Republicans

against Democrats.

There are dozens of differences on spending.

The Senate proposed $450 million for NASA for

exploration, for example, $50 million less than the House.

It also eliminated the House's call for money to combat a

potential flu pandemic.

On the other hand, the Senate bill calls for several billion

more in spending for research at the National Institutes of

Health, the result of an amendment backed last week by

Specter.

轉貼自:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_go_co/congress_stimulus



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「回應」需要「針對」對方的「論點」
    回應給: 阿卡迪亞(martinique) 推薦0


胡卜凱
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1.     假設和立場的功能 -- 「公共論述」的概念

認為

世界上沒有一個人人都共同接受的真理。

因此,一個論述的完整性或是否說得通(=邏輯性),必須從論述內容來檢查。

由於第一個命題,我也認為

凡論述必有假設;凡判斷必有立場。

以上這兩個命題蘊含︰

一個人的假設立場決定他/她論述的內容,同時也決定此論述是否說得通,或此論述是否具有內部一致性

這是我建議你說明自己假設立場的原因。

(「傳統基金會」學者被美國資本家或大財團豢養,我完全了解他/她們為什麼說些言不及義的混帳話。你老弟在此地散佈這些「論述」,完全是你的自由,不關我的事,自然無所謂興趣不興趣。我只是好奇而已,例如,你有沒有吃錯藥或美國人說的What are you smoking? 怪事年年有,近來似乎一酷拉脫的多。)

一個公共論述需要接受公眾的檢驗。一個在公共場所進行的說法是否在就事論事,也要接受公眾的檢驗。如果一個人不說明自己的假設或立場,別人無從檢驗其內部一致性,也不能了解他/她據何論何,或他/她的」是否和當下的「」相關。說不定這個人在據荒唐

因此「就事論事」不是自己宣稱或裝扮的。要被一般人看做或接受為「就事論事」,一個說法需要符合最低的論述規範。

論述規範之一是具有內部一致性。如上所述,判斷一個說法是否具有內部一致性」必須根據論述者的假設和立場。

許多替陳水扁擦、舔、吹的人,如李遠哲和李鴻禧,不也自認為就事論事」嗎?而且還振振有詞的自認為」得頭頭是道呢。在我看來,他們只不過在進行舔屁股」式的言談動作。

因此,除非你否認或批駁我以上的兩個命題,以及否定一般學者主張的論述規範,號稱就事論事」並不能免除你或任何人(如李遠哲和李鴻禧)在進行公共論述時,說明自己的假設和立場。

我在本城邦已發表過許多關於公共論述和論述規範的文章。不在此重複。

2.     消費和經濟

我在《真、假的判準 -- 美國三客流論述》第3.3節《消費和經濟》,已就消費和經濟活動的關係做了簡單說明。你不同意,歡迎批駁指教

如我所說,消費和經濟活動關係的理論基礎是亞當•斯密所說明貨幣流通的「加成效應」。如果你不懂或沒聽過這個概念你當然會「質疑(=不懂)「為什麼花這些錢就可以刺激經濟?」。你只要說一聲「我不懂」,我可以花點時間找出《國富論》中相關頁數,給你參考。

台灣地區消費劵的短期成效就是這個「加成效應」的實例。

如果你懂這個概念你可以不同意或否定貨幣流通有「加成效應」。只要你說出一個「說得通」的論述,即使我不同意你的觀點(因為我可能有和你不同的假設)我一定承認你的說法成立並謝謝指教。

此外,我已針對你所引述「傳統基金會」學者的論點,提出三點批駁。你不同意,可以提出反批駁

如果你不就「論點批駁論點」,下次我恕不回應。(「回應對方論點」是論述規範之一。否則,只是在打哈哈或打屁,我可沒有這個美國時間。)

你提的技術層面的問題我沒有能力回答;也沒有興趣思考因為它們和主題無關,更不關我的屁事。

至於美國保守派或造成這次經濟危機的新經濟自由主義派的觀點或論述如果你有興趣參考不同的觀點你可以看看克魯格曼對它們的批判(如減稅論)。我沒有能力去分析這些金光黨論述;也沒有興趣閱讀因為它們在騙美國民眾。(我在美國26年,這類論述早看夠了。我曾經常常看

Bill Buckley的Firing Line電視節目;我也瀏覽過Arthur

Laffer的supply-side economics 理論以及trickle-

down economics之類的胡說八道。)

3.     結論

我的重點是:

1.     要拯救當前經濟危機第一必須穩定金融秩序

(= 救銀行)。

2.     要拯救當前經濟危機第二必須穩定就業狀況

(= 進行公共支出)。

第二點是上次大蕭條時羅斯福總統政府根據凱恩斯理論所擬訂的政策。根據大多數經濟學家的觀點它有相當程度的成效。我只是個退休工程師並不懂經濟學。我自然沒有能力從理論上討論任何相關議題。我只是根據常識同意和支持類似的方案。

我給自己定的工作只是在此地看到一些說不通論述時指出其謬誤。以免一些年輕人聽了胡說當真理。

 



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胡兄:

您對我的政治傾向好像很有興趣,我不置可否,因為我只對就事論事有興趣。我在這裡發言不是要”散播言論”,而是因為你說這裡是”理性和知識為基礎的公共論述場域”。  看看經濟刺激方案的實際內容,討論為什麼這樣的內容可以刺激經濟,應該算是理性和知識吧。如果您老真的不喜歡,我少說兩句就是。

其實你我的政治傾向都不重要,真正重要的是歐巴馬的政治傾向,和這個八千億紓困案的政治傾向。

我在質疑的是,為什麼花這些錢就可以刺激經濟?很遺憾我這幾天努力的看還是看不出答案。例如這個:$140 million for "climate data modeling"。是什麼model要這麼貴?是誰來作這個model?誰來決定錢怎麼分?做完一定有對的結論嗎?之後又會對經濟有什麼影響?這些都是應該是需要討論的事。

這是另外一例:歐巴馬一直說造橋鋪路,而這幾條是我找到跟造橋鋪路有關的(若有人還有看到請補充,詳情我建議參考眾議院網站的原文(pdf)),總共只
有23.75億,也就是八千億的3%,其中大部分還有指定對象,包括印第安人,鐵路,野生動物保留區等:

$325 million for Interior Department road, bridge and trail repair projects
$300 million for road and bridge work in Wildlife Refuges and Fish Hatcheries
$500 million for repair and replacement of schools, jails, roads, bridges, housing and more for Bureau of Indian Affairs
$300 million for Indian Reservation roads
$800 million for national railroad assets or infrastructure repairs, upgrades
$150 million for alteration or removal of obstructive bridges


最後,小弟這幾天又寫了兩篇”三客流””共和黨”的文章,不嫌刺眼的話來看看吧。我自己是比較喜歡焦點團體那一篇,因為好像不只美國有那種現象。
歐巴馬八千億計畫:最新民調結果
焦點團體(Focus Group)-狗肉上的羊頭哪來的?
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美國經濟振興方案平議 -- M. GRUNWALD
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我沒有能力討論美國經濟振興方案。推薦一篇我認為平實的文章:

What Is Real Stimulus and What Isn't?

MICHAEL GRUNWALD, 02/03/09

From:

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1876535,00.html



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銀行的重要性
    回應給: 胡卜凱(jamesbkh) 推薦0


胡卜凱
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上篇留言談到銀行的重要,現在從實務面補充一下。

國內貿易中,視買方的購買力,買方付款的期限可以從15天到三個月甚至於更長。這是賣方需要軋頭寸(周轉資金)的原因之一。

國際貿易中,通常都需經過銀行的信貸保證(LOC, Line of Creddit)交易。

如果銀行無力或拒絕承擔風險,則許多買賣都無法成交。

 



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景氣的「結構性」因素
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胡卜凱
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文章推薦人 (1)

胡卜凱

本文回應Jane Doe網友大作

 

謝謝Jane Doe光臨及提供的議題。

我試著回答一下,請指教。

營建業和製造業的景氣完全受所謂「結構性」因素影響。

在金融(銀行)重新站起來之前,房地產的前景不可能改善。(一般人要買房子一定要申請貸款。)

在就業情況回穩前,一般人沒有能力購買車子或長期性商品(家俱、冰箱、冷氣機、洗衣機等等)。後者也受房地產景氣影響。(有新房子就會買或不得不考慮買新家俱、新冰箱、新冷氣機、新洗衣機等等。)

因此,這兩個產業的失業狀況不是政府撒錢或刺激消費能立竿見影。

另一方面,政府的公共支出,如修橋補路或增加公共業務,可以帶動營建業和部份相關製造業(如數據機、影印機等辦公室產品)。據報導,這是歐巴馬「振興方案」的一部份。所以,它會間接帶動這兩個產業的景氣。

這也是各國政府非救銀行不可的原因。(經濟運轉靠市場,市場活絡靠貨幣,貨幣流通靠周轉,周轉資金靠銀行或錢莊。)

本文轉貼自:

【中時電子報】>> 【新聞對談】>> 《「歐巴馬經濟振興方案」討論》>>留言28    

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振興方案救失業的重點有待商酌 -- Jane Doe
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胡卜凱

作者 -- Jane Doe

近日讀到一個觀點.個人覺得值得參考:

該論點提到,很少有人注意到振興方案(stimulus plan)所針對的大部份產業,其實卻是失業率最低的一環.

以去年12月失業率而言,政府部門占2.3%,教育與保健占3.8%.

但同期的失業率在製造業是8.3%,營建業是15.2%.

但是日前通過的 $825 billion 中,有 $550 billion 是要在這 2 年內撥出,而這些款項卻有 39% 是給地方政府. 教育建保方面是17.3% 另外的22.5%分配給社福補助如食物券,失業救濟金之用.

所以該論點懷疑振興方案的功能是否真能達成,因為,政府把錢用在失業率最低的產業或是政府部門上?而失業率最高的民間產業卻得到最低的分配.合理嗎?

"$646,214 Per Government Job", By Alan Reynolds

who is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute. January 28, 2009

The Wall Street Journal on page A15.

本文轉貼自:

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失業問題
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謝謝英哥光臨及提供的資料。

的確,失業是這次金融風暴所引起的最嚴峻後果,也造成對一般老百姓最慘痛的衝擊。 

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