Power of the Future: A Timeline to Energy Independence

Michael Schirber, Special to LiveScience, LiveScience.com

President-elect Barack Obama has plans to invest $150

billion in clean energy technology over the next 10 years.

With similar initiatives in other countries, when might we

expect exciting alternative technology to deliver true

energy independence?

The predictions are all over the map.

In July of this year, Al Gore made probably the most

ambitious forecast:

we can get all our electricity from solar, wind and other

clean carbon-free sources in just 10 short years.

"This goal is achievable, affordable and transformative,"

he said.

Many others think it will take longer.

The European Renewable Energy Council and

Greenpeace recently released their Energy [R]evolution

Report, in which they predict renewables will need more

like 80 years to completely replace fossil fuels.

"Al Gore can say 10 years because he is Al Gore," said

Sven Teske of the Greenpeace International renewable

energy campaign. "We can actually back up our targets."

In their report, Teske and his fellow authors asked the

renewable energy industry what it thought it could deliver

with proven technologies. This renewable potential was

then matched up against economic growth predictions.

To stimulate the turnover in energy supply, governments

will need to agree to ambitious reductions in greenhouse

gas emissions, Teske told LiveScience.

However, he admits that it's a two-way street.

Environmental groups and the renewable industry need to

provide politicians with reasonable roadmaps for cutting

carbon out of the energy equation.

"We hope we have some positive influence in making it

easier for politicians to agree on tough emission

reductions," Teske said.

Here is what the future may hold if roadmaps, predictions

and policy targets all come true.

2009:

World leaders meet in Copenhagen, Denmark, to design a

follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol.

All new homes built in Germany have renewable energy

heating systems.

2010:

5.2 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

emissions from 1990 levels is achieved by those

countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol.

20 percent of California's electricity comes from

renewables.

Toyota releases a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

2012:

The London Olympics is a low-carbon, zero-waste games.

2014:

No more incandescent bulbs sold in the United States, as

proscribed by 2007 Energy Bill.

2018:

100 percent of U.S. electricity comes from solar, wind and

other renewables (Gore's prediction).

$255 billion spent per year (more than four times what is

currently spent) on biofuels, wind power, solar

photovoltaics, and hydrogen fuel cells, according to

market research firm Clean Edge.

$150 billion invested by this date by the U.S. government

on climate-friendly energy development (Obama's plan).

2020:

All new cars are hybrids, according to an anonymous

survey of car industry executives by IBM's Institute for

Business Value.

35 miles per gallon is average for the U.S. fleet.

20 percent of the European Union's energy comes from

renewables.

15 percent of China's energy comes from renewables.

Sweden is oil-free.

2022:

36 billion gallons of biofuels sold in the United States, up

from 4.7 billion gallons in 2007.

2025:

25 percent of U.S. electricity comes from renewables

(Obama's plan).

2030:

50 percent increase in world energy demand from 2005

levels, according to U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

All new federal buildings are carbon-neutral, as stated in

2007 Energy Act.

70 percent of Hawaii's energy comes from renewables,

thanks in part to a ban on new coal plants.

One-fifth of U.S. power comes from wind, the DOE

predicts.

One-fourth of U.S. workers wear a green collar, according

to the American Solar Energy Society.

20 million new jobs created by renewable industry, says

United Nations report.

2050:

50 percent of the world's energy comes from renewables,

claims the Energy [R]evolution Report.

2090:

100 percent of the world's energy comes from

renewables, claims the Energy [R]evolution Report.

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