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胡卜凱

美國今年選出歐巴馬有其重大的歷史及社會層面意義。此處轉貼兩篇評論。我再略表己見。


雖然美國國力在式微中,但她做為當前全球超霸,其領導人的格局、見識、政策、和團隊自然對整個國際社會的穩定和發展一定會產生重大影響。


所以我將此欄更名,並略誌數語。歡迎大家參與報導和討論。



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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=3091681
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2009/01/22 05:49 【不平則鳴】 聽其言, 觀其行: 冷眼看奧八碼就職
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歐巴馬路線 -- 環保和基因研究政策 -- M. Kniazkov (法新社)
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Obama signals break with Bush in new science team    

Maxim Kniazkov (法新社)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – President-elect Barack Obama on

Saturday signalled climate change and genetic research 

will be among his top priorities when he takes office as he

named White House science and technology advisers.

"Today, more than ever before, science holds the key to

our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity

as a nation," Obama said in a weekly radio and video

address.

"It's time we once again put science at the top of our

agenda and worked to restore America's place as the

world leader in science and technology."

Obama's comments were a clear reference to President

George W. Bush's administration which has been

accused of downplaying scientific findings on climate

change and genetic research.

Signalling a break with Bush policies on global warming,

Obama named John Holdren, an award-winning

environmental policy professor at Harvard University, to

head the Office of Science and Technology Policy and

co-chair the president's Council of Advisors on Science

and Technology.

...

Holdren, 64, led the Pugwash Conferences on Science

and World Affairs, an international group of prominent

scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995. ...

...

Underscoring the importance of genetic research, the

president-elect also named Eric Lander and Harold

Varmus as co-chairmen of the council of advisors.

Lander is founding director of the Broad Institute, which

played a leading role in the Human Genome Project which

in 2003 succeeded in mapping the location of about

20,500 genes on the 23 pairs of human chromosomes.

Varmus, a co-recipient of a 1989 Nobel prize for studies

of the genetic basis of cancer, has served as president

and chief executive of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer

Center in New York since January 2000.

Obama expressed confidence that together the two men

will "remake" the group "into a vigorous external advisory

council" that will shape his thinking on scientific aspects

of his policies.

The nominees also include Jane Lubchenco, a world-

renowned environmental expert and marine biologist from

Oregon, who will head up the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, an agency that monitors

global weather patterns and issues storm forecasts.

Lubchenco in an October interview with US media said he

had noticed a shift in public attitude on global warming and

accused the Bush administration of being anti-science

after reports surfaced that it had redacted official

scientific documents recommending action on climate

change, endangered species and environmental pollution.

These recent picks, along with the naming of Nobel-prize

laureate physicist Steven Chu last week to head the

Department of Energy, indicated Obama will work to

unwind the energy and climate change policies of the

Bush administration, which refused to ratify the Kyoto

Protocol on climate change.

"None of the great interlinked challenges of our time -- the

economy, energy, environment, health, security, and the

particular vulnerabilities of the poor to shortfalls in all of

these -- can be solved without insights and advances

from the physical sciences, the life sciences, and

engineering," Holdren said in a statement Friday.

Obama made no direct reference to a controversial 2001

decision by Bush to limit federal funding for embryonic

stem cell research, despite pleas by many scientists who

believe it could offer promise in fighting degenerative

diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.

The president-elect warned that promoting science is

"about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted

or obscured by politics or ideology," an apparent

reference to the Bush administration's response to

research on global warming.

...

轉貼自︰

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081220/wl_afp/uspoliticsobamascience

 

 

 



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歐巴馬的科技團隊及政策 -- Maxim Kniazkov (法新社)
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Obama signals break with Bush in new science team

Maxim Kniazkov (法新社)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – President-elect Barack Obama on

Saturday signalled climate change and genetic research 

will be among his top priorities when he takes office as he

named White House science and technology advisers.

"Today, more than ever before, science holds the key to

our survival as a planet and our security and prosperity

as a nation," Obama said in a weekly radio and video

address.

"It's time we once again put science at the top of our

agenda and worked to restore America's place as the

world leader in science and technology."

Obama's comments were a clear reference to President

George W. Bush's administration which has been

accused of downplaying scientific findings on climate

change and genetic research.

Signalling a break with Bush policies on global warming,

Obama named John Holdren, an award-winning

environmental policy professor at Harvard University, to

head the Office of Science and Technology Policy and

co-chair the president's Council of Advisors on Science

and Technology.

...

Holdren, 64, led the Pugwash Conferences on Science

and World Affairs, an international group of prominent

scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995. He

won a MacArthur Foundation "genius award" in 1981 for

his arms control work, and a number of environmental

science awards.

...

Underscoring the importance of genetic research, the

president-elect also named Eric Lander and Harold

Varmus as co-chairmen of the council of advisors.

Lander is founding director of the Broad Institute, which

played a leading role in the Human Genome Project which

in 2003 succeeded in mapping the location of about

20,500 genes on the 23 pairs of human chromosomes.

Varmus, a co-recipient of a 1989 Nobel prize for studies

of the genetic basis of cancer, has served as president

and chief executive of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer

Center in New York since January 2000.

...

The nominees also include Jane Lubchenco, a world-

renowned environmental expert and marine biologist from

Oregon, who will head up the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, an agency that monitors

global weather patterns and issues storm forecasts.

Lubchenco in an October interview with US media said he

had noticed a shift in public attitude on global warming and

accused the Bush administration of being anti-science

after reports surfaced that it had redacted official

scientific documents recommending action on climate

change, endangered species and environmental pollution.

These recent picks, along with the naming of Nobel-prize

laureate physicist Steven Chu last week to head the

Department of Energy, indicated Obama will work to

unwind the energy and climate change policies of the

Bush administration, which refused to ratify the Kyoto

Protocol on climate change.

"None of the great interlinked challenges of our time -- the

economy, energy, environment, health, security, and the

particular vulnerabilities of the poor to shortfalls in all of

these -- can be solved without insights and advances

from the physical sciences, the life sciences, and

engineering," Holdren said in a statement Friday.

The president-elect warned that promoting science is

"about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted

or obscured by politics or ideology," an apparent

reference to the Bush administration's response to

research on global warming.

The nominations came as Obama rounded out his cabinet

before his January 20 inauguration.

On Friday, he tapped Democratic Representative Hilda

Solis of California as labor secretary and former

Republican Congressman Ray LaHood of Illinois as

transportation secretary.

...

轉貼自︰

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081220/wl_afp/uspoliticsobamascience



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寄望於歐巴馬者
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胡卜凱

目前(在我的淺見)看來,歐巴馬的團隊可圈可點其經濟政策藍圖至少在當機立斷之外,相當有魄力或大手筆其能源政策的方向務實而正確。

任命希拉蕊為國務卿是深思熟慮後的傑作。不但展現其領袖風格和高度,也再次顯示他的務實性格。

為了全球的穩定發展,期望歐巴馬能延續羅斯福的領袖格局、詹森的政治手腕、柯林頓實事求是的作風。



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用人唯才 -- 歐巴馬能源及環保團隊 -- L. Sidoti (合眾社)
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Officials say Obama chooses energy, EPA posts

LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama intends

to round out his environmental and natural resources

team with a Nobel Prize-winning physicist and three

former Environmental Protection Agency officials from the

Clinton administration.

The president-elect has selected Steven Chu for energy

secretary, Lisa Jackson for EPA administrator, Carol

Browner as his energy "czar" and Nancy Sutley to lead

the White House Council on Environmental Quality,

Democratic officials said Wednesday.

Still unclear is whom Obama will tap for interior secretary.

… He has only a few key posts left to fill: national

intelligence director, the secretaries of housing, labor,

education, transportation and agriculture and U.S. trade

representative.

As for his environment and natural resources team:

Chu was one of three scientists who shared the Nobel

Prize for physics in 1997 for work in cooling and trapping

atoms with laser light. He's a professor of physics and

molecular and cell biology at the University of California,

Berkeley, and has been the director of the Lawrence

Berkeley National Laboratory since 2004, where he has

pushed for research into alternative energy as a way to

combat global warming.

It is the oldest of the Energy Department's national

laboratories, doing only unclassified work, and in recent

years under Chu has been at the center of research into

biofuels and solar technologies.

Jackson, who will be the first black person to lead the

EPA, is a former New Jersey Department of

Environmental Protection commissioner who worked at

the federal agency for 16 years, …

Browner, who served as EPA chief for eight years

under Clinton, will become Obama's go-to person in the

White House overseeing energy issues, an area

expected to include the environment and climate matters.

Sutley, the deputy mayor for energy and environment in

Los Angeles and the mayor's representative on the Board

of Directors for the Metropolitan Water District of

Southern California, is the first prominent member of the

gay and lesbian community to earn a senior role in

Obama's new administration.

(Associated Press Writers Dina Cappiello and H. Josef

Hebert contributed to this report.)

轉貼自:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081210/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_environment



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專業重於意識型態 -- Obama 閣員 -- A. Bettelheim
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Expertise Trumps Ideology in Obama's Early Picks

By Adriel Bettelheim, CQ Politics Staff, 11/24/08

After he waged a campaign built around a stirring message of change, many of President-elect Obama's supporters

expected him to begin stocking his administration with

passionate progressives bristling to challenge the status

quo. Conservatives anticipated something akin to the

second coming of the New Deal.

Neither scenario has materialized.

At the quarter point in the transition process, Obama has

surrounded himself with a cadre of seasoned political

operatives and Clinton administration veterans known

more for their expertise than ideology. Beltway savvy and

centrist policy chops have, so far, trumped partisanship.

Some of this is to be expected, as Obama's team shifts

from the frenetic pace of a presidential campaign to the

more deliberate realm of governing.

And remember that as a candidate, Obama portrayed

himself as a new breed of politician capable of

transcending traditional political fault lines.

But the selection of so many centrist insiders has

skeptics wondering whether the idealistic ex-community

organizer is capable of backing up his promises to shake

up Washington and promote a more activist government.

"When you look at him, you see a person who's very

cautious, who hasn't involved himself in a lot of big issues

in Congress but on the other hand, has a background

that's hard left. It's not clear whether he wants to be Tony

Blair or Juan Peron," said Myron Ebell, a policy analyst at

the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Of course, there's a lot of political real estate between

Blair, the former British prime minister, and Peron, the

socialist Argentinian leader.

Not Like 1993 The difficulty in pinning down the part of

the political spectrum from which Obama will govern

shows, experts say, that he is being careful not to repeat

the mistakes former President Bill Clinton made during his

1992 transition.

By building his administration from the inside out and

focusing on filling key White House positions like the

chief-of-staff, counsel and his senior advisers, he will

have a brain trust that can help guide remaining

personnel decisions, alert him to potential conflicts and

even begin moving an agenda.

...

Parsing the Early Picks Political scientists who study

presidential transitions say the most obvious thing to be

gleaned from Obama's selections is that he prizes trust 

and an individual's ability to deliver.

Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, the tenacious Illinois

congressman and former Clinton administration political

director, combines an under-the-hood knowledge of

campaigns with experience shaping health and tax policy

on the Ways and Means Committee.

Former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, tapped

to head the Deaprtment of Health and Human Services,

was an early supporter of Obama's who knows how to let

negotiations play themselves out, then stand pat until his

top priorities are addressed.

Obama's roster is populated with other such inside

players, many with Ivy League credentials and

impressive resumes like ex-Deputy Attorney General Eric

Holder (attorney general), former Clinton impeachment

lawyer Gregory Craig (White House counsel),

Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag 

(budget director) and Obama's Senate staff director, Pete

Rouse (senior adviser).

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama's rumored choice for

secretary of state, can hardly be lumped with the loyalists

but is a world figure and could be expected to be a tough

negotiator who could advance the new president's

interests with the global community.

Obama's supporters "voted for somebody they thought

was going to bring a different tone to Washington and

make use of people not in terms of their partisanship but

in terms of what they can bring to an issue, and he's set

out to do that," said Martha Joynt Kumar, director of the

White House Transition Project, an academic think tank

that assists the incoming president and his transition

team.

Another trait on display is discipline.

Obama has been scrupulous about not dabbling in

policymaking before he is sworn in.

He avoided the G20 economic summit President Bush

organized in Washington the weekend of Nov. 14 and 15,

instead sending former Clinton Secretary of State

Madeleine Albright and ex-Rep. Jim Leach, R-Iowa, to

gather input from world leaders.

The message was clear: Obama will make commitments

and offer input only when he's ready.

"He didn't get lured into a trap, even though the press and

some economists were saying he had to move fast and

get involved to address the serious problems," said

Stephen Hess, senior fellow emeritus at the Brookings

Institution and an adviser to former Presidents Gerald

R. Ford and Jimmy Carter. "What emerges from this is a

cool, disciplined person who spent just enough time in the

Senate to understand Washington and is surrounding

himself with experienced people who know how to get

things done."

The downside to this low-key approach is Obama will

have to tamp down the expectations of the myriad left-

leaning interest groups that supported him. Experts

predict he will acknowledge these groups' concerns by

issuing executive orders and directives on matters such

as union political activities while keeping his larger focus

on the economy and devising solutions that don't appear

to be tinged by politics.

"People are always going to think he'll do what they're

expecting him to do, and see the rightness of their

cause," Kumar said. "But he comes into a situation

everyone views as critical. He'll have to convince people

he can't handle everything and will have to put some

items on the side so he can deal with economy. Reagan

was able to do that. He came in during a period of high

unemployment and inflation and was able to tell the social

conservatives they'd have to wait."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081124/pl_cq_politics/politics2990448;_ylt=AggN3oYVIN7qHs1wCEot6lMGw_IE

 

 



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美國大選雜感
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美國目前還是世界上的超霸。其領導人的改變,尤其當選人是位少數族裔時,即使沒有實質影響,也有觀念上和象徵性的重大意義。

不論美國領導人是誰,他/她及其團隊都需要以大多數美國人的利益為優先考量。個人利益雖然由各自的立場和認知來決定,但它也的確有其現實面和結構性因素。因此,針對大多數人利益」所做的判斷必須符合「人際相通」的原則和判準,也就能夠被嚴格分析和檢驗。

至少就短期利益」來說,美國人的利益和其他國家人民的利益」並不完全相容或相合。因此,冀望歐巴馬在美國外交政策上有任何重大改變,是不切實際的想法。請參考張翠容教授的分析。

政治是爭奪資源分配權的活動。有權力的人當然也就能在決策過程中左右政策的方向和特定方案的選擇。因而,大多數人利益」未必一定是決策過程中唯一或優先的選項依據。

歐巴馬到底是個極滑頭的唱高調者(bull-shitter),在過去一年多來,為了取得大位而説的比唱的好聽。,還是他的確有澄清天下之志。從現在起一、兩個月內就可從他所聘任的閣員及顧問看出來。至於他有沒有澄清天下」的能力則要根據他個人的見識或格局和他聘任團隊所規劃的政策及方案來判斷。這大概在他上任三到六個月後才有跡象可尋

上面提到,政治是爭奪資源分配權的活動。」因此,除非經過革命,如法國大革命和中共建國,和平的政權轉移很難帶來根本的改變。因為在多數情況,所謂政黨總統,其實只是不同財團和資本家的代理人白手套或走狗。所以,我不看好歐巴馬給美國社會帶來大幅改變的機率。

美國的實力和形象雖然在這次經濟風暴中雙雙受到重創,但她仍然居於國際社會的領導和主導地位為了世局的穩定和全球各地老百姓的福祉,我希望歐巴馬是個實事求是、穩紮穩打的政客,如柯林頓;而不是一個眼高手低的繡花枕頭,如卡特

布希政府是個「謀財害命」的政權,歐巴馬政府大概不會「謀財,不過做為超霸的領導人,我希望他的團隊能夠不淪為另一個「害命」政權



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改變 -- 林深靖
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作者 -- 林深靖

大眾評論》編案︰

歐巴馬的政策主張,其實只不過是讓國家重新回歸調節者、分配者的角色,譬如全面進行稅改,讓貧富差距不再擴大;譬如推動醫療政策改革,讓窮人也可以獲得健康的保障;又譬如在生態環保的大量投入、對消費模式的檢討…這些過去美國政府極為陌生的政策選項,隨著歐巴馬的當選,已成為可能…

****************************************

「改變!」這是歐巴馬最響亮的競選口號。11月4日,這位年僅47歲的非洲移民後裔果然勝出,成為美國第44任總統,成為全球第一強權的領導人,這將改變什麼?

首先,這將改變美國在世人面前的形象。一個驕傲、獨大、冷血、侵略成性的白人帝國,居然可以在日愈衰頹的民主的體制之下選出一位弱勢的有色人種擔任國家元首,這證明美國社會深層的確有一股自我更新、自我省覺的能量。「美國夢」遠比大家想像得更為豐富、更為動人,更具有無限的可能性。美國彷彿重新找回其建國的理想,超越歷史上種族主義和奴隸制度的悲劇。這是亞美利堅的回春,是美麗夢想的回歸。

歐巴馬的當選,也是「國家」角色的回歸。競選期間,共和黨候選人馬侃不時刻意渲染歐巴馬的「社會主義」傾向,告訴選民,一旦歐巴馬進入白宮,就是國家干預的擴大,就是自由市場、私有財產的終結。然而,在金融風暴席捲之下,美國選民對於國家的角色似乎有更大的期待,他們對於過去資本主義自由市場法則之下,政府高層與金融界企業高層上下勾串、化公為私的裙帶慣性已無法容忍。歐巴馬的政策主張,其實只不過是讓國家重新回歸調節者、分配者的角色,譬如全面進行稅改,讓貧富差距不再擴大;譬如推動醫療政策改革,讓窮人也可以獲得健康的保障;又譬如在生態環保的大量投入、對消費模式的檢討…這些過去美國政府極為陌生的政策選項,隨著歐巴馬的當選,已成為可能。

不過,歐巴馬究竟只是一個被包裝的夢想,或是一個真正的希望,很快就要面臨考驗。首先,對外而言,過去布希總統在兩屆任期之內,以「反恐」為名,發動阿富汗和伊拉克兩場戰爭,而且隨著美國駐軍長驅直入,戰爭還在無限期延續下去。這兩場戰爭,不僅是美國財政上的沉重負擔,也是在道德上的嚴重負債。歐巴馬要如何處理這兩場戰爭,如何面對所謂「恐怖主義」問題,考驗著他的智慧與識見。其次,對內而言,布希任內極端的金融自由主義政策導致美國經濟上的巨大災難,而且災難還在蔓延擴大之中,歐巴馬未來的「新政」是否能夠將美國拉出金融危機的泥淖,這將也是他未來4年內的重大考驗。

歐巴馬帶來「改變」,帶來「希望」。但是,我們也不能忽略,美國的選舉已經變成另一個巨型的好萊塢夢工廠。歐巴馬的競選過程其實是一個非常專業化的電影製片工程。電影的法則被充分運用到政治之中:一個好演員,一個好故事,加上一個良好的敘事手法,英雄就這樣在鏡頭前誕生。當然,更少不了天文數字的資金投入。

競選最後階段,歐巴馬陣營砸下重金在全美重要頻道播出長達半個小時的個人成長故事,如此大手筆的廣告行銷,也許感人肺腑,賺人熱淚,卻恐怕不是任何其他民主國家的候選人所能夠複製。美國民主的金錢政治本質,並不因為歐巴馬而「改變」。在當今的表演政治中,歐巴馬究竟是一個包裝精良的銀幕英雄,或是一個主控浮沉、指點江山的政治豪傑,我們拭目以待!

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大眾評論http://mass-age.com/wpmu/blog/2008/11/06/5481/



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美兩黨外交政策的明槍暗箭 -- 張翠容
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胡卜凱

作者 -- 張翠容,11/04/2008

+一月四日是美國大選日,美國人聚焦在新總统的國內政策,外界則有興趣於美國的外交政策會否出現新思維。

布殊執政期間大攪軍事霸權、單邊主義,最後弄至美國焦頭爛額,因此,大家好奇觀望,無論是麥凱恩還是奧巴馬,他們如何帶領美國從伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭泥沼中抽身出來?這是美國新一屆政府最具爭議和挑戰的一項外交政策。

此外,美國新政府面對的外交難題還有中東地區的以巴和平進程、拉丁美洲的古巴禁運政策和多國紛紛向左轉現象,而亞洲區域裏則是以中國為首,怎樣處理與中國關係可牽制其他蠢蠢欲動的反美力量,這包括俄羅斯在內,對此可足另文再述。

現在先比較民主、共和兩黨解决阿伊兩場戰爭問題的政策。

自視為越戰英雄的麥凱恩,他大呼繼續駐軍伊拉克直至完全勝利,並在該地設立永久美軍基地,這主張絕對不會令我們驚訝,麥凱恩本來就一直支持布殊的軍事行動。

雖然美國民意逐漸顯示厭倦戰爭,反戰聲音不斷上升,但仍有不少贊成以拳頭征服世界的典型美國人,麥凱恩正好代表這類典型美國人,當中絕大部分以猶太人的觀點看世界,在以巴問題上忠心支持以色列,因為這符合他們的基督教福音派信仰,巴勒斯坦人成為他們眼中的恐怖分子。

麥凱恩強調他會積極推動以巴和平進程,卻不忘呼籲巴人接受以色列的方案,又建議加強制裁古巴等等,這都是共和黨候選人麥凱恩的明刀明槍。

反觀奧巴馬,他公開主張在伊拉克逐步撤軍,落實伊人治伊,卻一轉身又提議在阿富汗加強美國軍力,並表示上台後會在軍隊中多增六萬五千名士兵,據聞,軍事合約商已為奧巴馬競選經費進貢了至少半百萬美元。

至於撤出伊拉克,奧巴馬可能正在玩弄語言遊戲,要知道,目前駐守伊拉克的美國軍力有相當比數來自私人保安公司,例如黑水公司,早前便因殺戮當地老百姓而受千夫所指,他們早已成美國的負資產,究竟奧巴馬要撤走甚麼軍力?即使撤走美國私人保安公司,傳统美軍在伊拉克的角色和命運又將如何?更何況美國在伊拉克已設有永久基地,更甚者,美國石油企業早得益於月前伊拉克政府私有化石油產業,伊拉克經濟命脈正受制於美國手上,伊人治伊遙遙無期。

莫說伊人治伊,巴勒斯坦立國在奧巴馬政策下,也一樣遙不可及。

以巴問題是美國一個死穴,也是民主共和兩黨的共識政治,就是不能違背以色列的利益,不能漠視美國猶太人無遠弗屆的政經影響力,因此,當奧巴馬今年年中出席「美國以色列公共事務委員會」年會時,便公然支持右翼以色列人獨佔耶路撒冷,這可謂比共和黨更鷹派的姿態,他這樣一說真是傷透了所有阿拉伯人的心。

奧巴馬不時被共和黨抹黑成和伊斯蘭陣營有密切關係的政客,為了一洗嫌疑,他在以巴立場上表現得如此右,是不無原因的。

另一惹人非議的,就是奧巴馬對拉美的態度,與右翼集團無異。他在一次公開演說裏仍不忘稱呼拉美為美國的後院,並指要把這個後院拉回正軌,他批評委內瑞拉反美總統查韋斯,又向極右組織「古巴裔美國人國家基金會」,保證他會繼續支持對古巴進行禁運,這令很多美國國內進步人士大跌眼鏡。但有趣的是,這仍然不減他們支持奧巴馬的熱情,奧巴馬的膚色本身就代表了「轉變」的憧景。誰不知他的外交政策裏埋有暗箭。

麥凱恩的明槍是否「易擋」?奧巴馬的「暗箭」是否就會「難防」?

萬變不離其宗,這便是美國的政治。 

-- 【Yotu論壇提供】



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