China's Space Capability Could Surpass United States,

Panel Warns

  

Becky Iannotta

space.com, Space News Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — The Shenzhou 7 mission and spacewalk

should serve as a reminder that China is building space

capabilities that could surpass U.S. technological

advances and boost China's diplomatic and economic ties

with its allies, a panel of experts said here Oct. 8.

China's success this decade with three human spaceflight

missions, including Shenzhou 7 in September, as well as 

the development of remote-sensing and satellite

navigation systems, two satellite export deals and the

January 2007 use of an antisatellite weapon to shoot-

down  one of its own satellites punctuate China's broader

national interest to become a "comprehensive power," the

panelists said.

They warned that China's space program is dominated by

young aerospace engineers who could help propel the

nation's advancements past the United States, which

faces difficulty replacing its aging aerospace work force.

China's wide reach into manned space missions, satellite

navigation and communications, and Earth monitoring

could help the nation gain a foothold in an already

competitive commercial space market, the panelists said.

"A newcomer like China [is] going to take a slice of a very

stable pie, which means there are going to be other losers.

Will it be the U.S., Europe, Russia? It's going to be

something difficult that we'll have to contend with," said

Kevin Pollpeter, China program manager for the Defense

Group Inc.'s Center for Intelligence, Research and

Analysis in Washington. "China's rise in space power is a

negative sum consequence for the United States."

China has closely guarded its space budget, in large part

because it is dominated by the military, panelists said.

Chinese leaders reported that the Chang'e lunar program

cost "no less than building a mile of subway in Beijing,"

Pollpeter said.

While concerns linger about China's January 2007

shootdown of one of its own weather satellites with an

antisatellite missile, or A-Sat, China primarily sees space

as a diplomatic tool. China prefers jamming and dazzling 

satellites rather than more aggressive action, said Dean

Cheng, senior Asia analyst with CNA Corp. in Alexandria,

Va. Jamming is intentional interference with satellite

signals; dazzling is illuminating a satellite with a laser in

order to blind it.

Themes that can be found throughout the writings

concerning China's People's Liberation Army (PLA)

indicate China is focused on space deterrence, Cheng

said, describing how a country's military capabilities,

economy and communications could be affected by space

warfare.

"We do not at this time have a very good sense of how the

PLA would necessarily operate in space in order to secure

space dominance," Cheng said. "What we do find in PLA

writings are certain key themes: the ability to provide

information support, the ability to take on both offensive

and defensive positions in space and space deterrence."

...

Panelists also said the U.S. space industry should relate

its relevance to people the way China's space officials

routinely discuss the economic, diplomatic and political

benefits of a strong space program.

"Space ultimately isn't about space," Cheng said. "But too

often here our conversations are stovepiped within the

space community focusing on the space budget and

[don't] really connect the space program to people's every

day lives even though it touches every aspect of people's

everyday lives."

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