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外交詞令 -- 「反對」和「不支持」之間
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最近因為美國國務院正、副發言人的談話中，先後用了「反對」(oppose)和「不支持」(not support)這兩個字眼，引起了一些關於美國「政策」走向的討論。在此表示我的意見。
1. 「外交詞令」
a. 「外交詞令」的目的就是不要把話講死(cast in iron)，因為國際事務的交涉和溝通需要預留想像或協商(討價還價)的空間。
b. 制定「政策」的是人，因此「政策」的後面，往往也隱藏著私人利益和意識型態。所以：
一個政府的「政策」，隨著現實(什麼國家或什麼地區的利益比較重要)，以及鼓吹某些特定「政策」者的影響力而有所修改甚至改變。「影響力」包括個人聲望、和媒體的關係、和當權者的關係 ...等等而定。
「政策」不是「意識型態」，它需要隨情況而修改甚至改變。所以，「外交官」和「外交詞令」大概是詮釋學和解讀學的開山祖師。
2. 判斷和決策
2.1 判斷和決策的依據
我們判斷和決策的依據「理論」上是：
a. 自己的實力和利益。
b. 對方(其他國家或政府)可能的「政策」或「選項」。
任何國家或政府的「政策」或「選項」，通常也是依據它們的實力和利益而定。
2.2 不是判斷和決策的依據
我們判斷和決策的依據不能是：
a. 自己的一廂情願
我們都知道：主觀的願望常常會扭曲透過感官所得到的訊息。
b. 對方使用的「外交詞令」。
3. 結論
如果把自己國家和人民的前途建立在對方的詞彙上，而不是一套自己的「風險評估」和「應變計畫」。我不知道關於這樣的政府和被它統治的人民，應該用悲哀、可憐、可笑、或荒謬要形容比較適當.
不幸的是，50 多年來我們的政府、朝野雙方的「智囊」、和人民一直生活在「詮釋和解讀」的陰影(或幻想？)中。
以下節錄兩段外國記者或評論家的文章來補充以上的分析：
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A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan? (1)
by William Kristol & Gary Schmitt
SENIOR BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS may be engineering a dramatic and dangerous shift in American policy toward Taiwan as a gift to the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who is visiting the United States next week. There are two elements of this proposed policy change, ... Both policy changes are being pushed by the staff of the National Security Council over the objections, we understand, of both the Departments of State and Defense.
First, James Moriarty, and Doug Paal, ... are urging President Bush to declare, privately and perhaps publicly, that the United States opposes Taiwan's independence. This would be a significant change in America's so-called "One-China Policy," a change very much in Beijing's favor.
....
Moriarty's second proposal is even more worrying. He proposes the United States declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Beijing launches a military attack on the island in response to a "provocation," i.e., some action or statement by Taiwan that Beijing determines moves in the direction of independence. ... Indeed, it may constitute an effort by the Bush administration in effect to repeal that law by executive fiat.
....
Of course, the reason behind the latest maneuverings within the Bush administration is the recent decision by the present government of Taiwan to hold national referenda on a variety of issues this spring. ...
It appears that the Bush administration has at least partly caved to Beijing's pressure. Moriarty recently traveled to Taipei to deliver a stern warning against holding any referendum on any subject. ... This means, in turn, that the administration will effectively be agreeing with Beijing that such referenda constitute a "provocation." ...
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US official 'urging referendum caution on Taiwan' (2)
By Guy Dinmore in Washington
The US has sent a senior official on a quiet mission to Taiwan to urge President Chen Shui-bian not to take any action through a referendum that could provoke China, conservative commentators in Washington said on Tuesday.
Diplomats said they suspected China was using its role in hosting six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme as a lever against the US over the Taiwan issue.
A White House spokesman said he could not comment on whether Mr Moriarty was in Taipei. A State Department spokesman said he had no knowledge of such a visit.
Gary Schmitt, head of the Project for the New American Century, a neo-conservative lobby group, said neither the State Department nor the Pentagon had been consulted about the trip.
He said the White House was considering a "dramatic and dangerous shift in American policy towards Taiwan as a gift to the Chinese premier".
The State Department denies there has been a change in policy and reiterated on Wednesday it did "not support" Taiwanese independence.
In carefully chosen language, however, the US has stopped short of meeting China's demand that it "oppose" Taiwan's independence.
On Monday, Richard Boucher, spokesman of the US State Department, said the US opposed any referendum designed to change Taiwan's status or move it towards independence.
.....
1. Yahoo >> Politics >> World >> Asia >> All World Coverage >> Asia Pacific >> Taiwan >> A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan? (12/02/2003)
2. Yahoo >> Politics >> World >> Asia >> All World Coverage >> Asia Pacific >> Taiwan >> US official 'urging referendum caution on Taiwan' (12/03/2003)
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本文節譯自"A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan?"並加註解。
(即上面兩個留言中的原文)
A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan? (1)
一個危險的對台新政策?
Two proposed policy changes make a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait more, not less, likely.
兩個擬議中的政策改變，將增加而非減低台灣海峽的軍事對抗
by William Kristol & Gary Schmitt
SENIOR BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS may be engineering a dramatic and dangerous shift in American policy toward Taiwan as a gift to the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, ...
布希政府內的資深官員，可能正在規劃一個極端而且危險的對台政策轉向，以求取悅於中國總理溫家寶。...
There are two elements of this proposed policy change, ... and one of which may actually encourage Beijing to take military action against Taiwan. Both policy changes are being pushed by the staff of the National Security Council over the objections, we understand, of both the Departments of State and Defense.
此一政策轉向包含兩個部分： ... 其中之一更可能鼓勵北京政府對台採取武力行動。新政策的這兩個部分是國安會幕僚在推動。據我們所知，國務院和國防部都反對這個擬議中的政策。
First, ,,, James Moriarty, and Doug Paal, ... are urging President Bush to declare, privately and perhaps publicly, that the United States opposes Taiwan's independence. ...
第一，莫健和帕爾敦促布希總統私下，或許公開宣佈美國反對台灣獨立。 ...
...
Moriarty's second proposal is even more worrying. He proposes the United States declare that it will not defend Taiwan if Beijing launches a military attack on the island in response to a "provocation," i.e., some action or statement by Taiwan that Beijing determines moves in the direction of independence. ...
莫健第的二個建議更讓人憂心。他建議美國宣佈：如果北京政府因為台灣政府的挑釁而對台採取武力攻擊的話，美國將不會防禦台灣。所謂「挑釁」，就是說當北京政府認定台灣政府的某些行動或言論在走向獨立時，即構成(對北京政府的)「挑釁」。
...
Indeed, it may constitute an effort by the Bush administration in effect to repeal that law by executive fiat. (譯者案: " that law " 指"Taiwan Relations Act passed by Congress in 1979")
事實上，(此一政策被宣佈的話)，它相當於布希政府以行政命令來撤銷眾議院在1979年所通過的「台灣關係法」。
Of course, the reason behind the latest maneuverings within the Bush administration is the recent decision by the present government of Taiwan to hold national referenda on a variety of issues this spring. ...
布希政府內部近來在(對中、台)政策上進行討論、規劃、和演變的原因，當然是當前台灣政府最近決定在明年春天，將就許多議題舉行全國性公投。...
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此文基本上是站在台灣的立場說話。但我們要注意的是他們所舉出的、正在進行的布希政府內部政策研議。
在這裏我補充幾句：
1. 美國國務院和國防部是所謂的「官僚」機構。它們的官員，尤其所謂的「職業官僚」(即中、下層非任命性的官員)，通常比較保守、也比較以大局或全球情勢為重。相形之下，國安會則是總統私人幕僚(相當於西部電影中的快槍手)，她/他們效忠或思考的第一對象是總統。所以她/他們的建議也比較會被採納。
2. 布希現在面臨的最大問題是明年的大選。不要說美國經濟情況難以好轉，美軍在伊拉克節節升高的陣亡人數，將是他的致命傷。這也是何以布希政府急著要在明年七月前從伊拉克退出(撒手)的主要原因。我可以預料，當明年(美國)初選開始後，伊拉克游擊隊的攻擊和美國國內的反戰聲浪，都會掀起另一波高潮。在這個情況下，布希沒有得罪中國的本錢。如果北韓自己(或在中國政府的關說下)擺出一付蠢蠢欲動的架勢，布希更需要中國政府出面緩頰。說不定他就要以台灣為代價，換取中國的合作。
布希和陳總統一樣，都是為了連任不惜出賣原則、人民、和老媽的政客。你只要看看陳總統的嘴臉和行為，你就可以想像明年七月以後布希的嘴臉和行為。
3. 莫健和帕爾的政策建議，基本上就是要替布希解套。一旦美國政府宣佈「挑釁論」，那就表示台灣不能再寄望什麼「台灣關係法」。更別說什麼民主、自由、自決這些原則，和許多人津津樂道、將身家性命賭在上面的「國際法」。
希望陳總統和跟著他起鬨的官員、學者、打手、和老百姓要三思：「你的簽證和機票辦好了嗎？」
沒辦法落跑的人民，請站出來為自己的前途和命運嗆聲！
1. 原文請見:
http://www.newamericancentury.org/taiwan-20031202.htm
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不可玩火自焚! 更不可為選票將國家帶到戰爭邊緣!
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請注意上一篇我的留言中下面三段話:
Diplomats said they suspected China was using its role in hosting six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme as a lever against the US over the Taiwan issue.
別人有籌碼可以玩,我們除了求"爽"的勇氣和意志以外,有其他"籌碼"嗎?
我們一般民眾的問題,是不了解自己的實力,也不了解對方的實力. 才會跟著起鬨. 陳總統為的是"總統"大位,行險僥倖還能了解,老百姓起鬨為了什麼?
Of course, the reason behind the latest maneuverings within the Bush administration is the recent decision by the present government of Taiwan to hold national referenda on a variety of issues this spring. ...
為什麼要搞"公投",固票而已.所以說: 不可玩火自焚!
更不可為選票將國家帶到戰爭邊緣!
It appears that the Bush administration has at least partly caved to Beijing's pressure. Moriarty recently traveled to Taipei to deliver a stern warning against holding any referendum on any subject. ... This means, in turn, that the administration will effectively be agreeing with Beijing that such referenda constitute a "provocation." ...
如果一旦美國同意"provocation"論,"欲加之罪,何患無詞"?
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