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新的「年齡」概念 -- Patricia Reaney -- Reuters
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胡卜凱
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作者:Patricia Reaney

目前科學家正在給「年齡」這個概念下一個新的定義。在這個新定義下,現在的40歲可能變成30歲。基本上,科學家認為計算一個人活了多久,不如估計他/她還能活多久。而隨著醫療科技的進步及其他因素,人類的平均壽命會與年俱增。(卜凱節譯)

LONDON (Reuters) 

Is 40 really the new 30?

Everyone is getting older but in many ways people today act younger

than their parents did at the same age.

Scientists have defined a new age concept and believe it could explain

why populations are ageing, but at the same time seem to be getting

younger. Instead of measuring ageing by how long people have lived

so far, the scientists have factored in how many more years people can

still look forward to.

"Using that measure, the average person can get younger in the sense

that he or she can have even more years to live as time goes on," said

Warren Sanderson, of the University of New York in Stony Brook.

He and Sergei Scherbov, of the Vienna Institute of Demography

at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, have used their method to

estimate how the proportion of elderly people in Germany, Japan

and the United States will change in the future.

The average German was 39.9 years old in 2000 and could plan to

live for another 39.2 years, according to research reported in the

science journal Nature on Wednesday.

However, by 2050 the average German would be 51.9 years old

and could expect another 37.1 years of life. So middle age in 2050

would come around 52 instead of 40 as in 2000.

"As people have more and more years to live they have to save

more and plan more and they effectively are behaving as if they

were younger," said Sanderson. Five years ago, the average

American was 35.3 years old and could plan for 43.5 more years

of life. By 2050, the researchers estimate it would increase to 41.7

years and 45.8 future years.

"A lot of our skills, our education, our savings and the way we deal

with our health care depend a great deal on how many years we

have to live," said Sanderson.

"This dimension of how many years we have to live has been

completely ignored in the discussion of ageing so far."






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