年初股市重挫以來，我們聽到不少「故事」。投資人突然間願意接受股市將大幅回檔、甚至經濟衰退的可能性。
最熱門的故事之一，是中國經濟與股市。中國之前投資過當，影子銀行問題嚴重，房市「鬼城」處處等都遭到放大。
在西方國家，這些故事還遭到情緒性渲染，把中國的錯誤，與西方的樂觀看法、愛國主義及競爭意識來相互對比。
這類故事其實誇大了中國經濟對美國股市的重要性，因為近年來美國對中國出口額僅占國內生產毛額成長率的0.6個百分點。然而一旦以故事為基礎的想法得以開展，便沒有多少人真正關心實際的經濟數據。
第二個故事，則是今年第一周股市表現創下最糟紀錄。強調「新年」此一時機，使市場空頭氛圍更濃，雖然「新年」其實並無特別意義，因為「新年」只是一項人為的因素，天主教、猶太教、穆斯林及中國都有自己的新年，強調新年只是為了讓整個故事更加有感而已。
但這些感覺已產生實質影響，令人回想起2000年初的股市大跌，當時西方國家都在慶祝千禧年。這種說法其實相當無稽，且真正的「千禧年」是從2001年才開始。真正重要的是2000年初時美股的長期本益比達到1881年最高水準，道瓊指數於2000年元月14日創歷史高峰後便大幅下跌。
第三個故事則是油價爆跌。不久前頁岩石油增產還被美國人普遍視為驚人成就，不幸的是現在整個故事已被顛覆，這些「英雄」拚命增產的結果使油價重挫。
還有第四個故事，即美國股市從2009-14年已大漲2倍。我去年8月時就曾指出，許多人都知道股市已上漲太多，對利空非常敏感，如今股市果然大幅回檔。
大部分經濟學者都未提到上述的故事，或認真評估這些故事的情緒吸引力。
但這些故事的重要性，取決於人們對故事的感覺，並引發情緒性的反應；既能夠催生革命，也能夠使股市崩跌。
關心股市者今年必然將經歷一連串的新故事，其中包括上述提到的四個故事。
這些故事是否會產生重疊性的效應，造成股市進一步下跌，並引發更多新的負面故事，都有可能；究竟如何，只有時間才能夠證明。
（作者Robert J. Shiller是2013年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）
Schiller, column 4, a tragic story was crying by stock market
2016-01-27 03:24 economic daily compiled the Central Plains
Since the stock market tumbled earlier this year, we heard a lot of "story". Investors suddenly willing to accept stock market correction, or even the possibility of recession.
One of the hottest stories, China's economy and the stock market. Excessive China investment, shadow banking problem is serious, the housing market "ghost town" everywhere are being amplified.
In the West, these stories was an emotional rendering errors, China, optimism, patriotism and sense of competition with the West contrast with each other.
This kind of story is to exaggerate the Chinese economy on the United States stock market importance, since in recent years the United States exports to China accounted for gross domestic product growth rate of 0.6%. However, once based on story ideas to carry out, not many people actually care about real economic data.
The second story was the worse the first week this year stock performance on record. Emphasis on "happy new year" this time the market short atmosphere more, although "happy new year" there is no special significance, because "new year" is just a human factor, Catholic, Jewish, Muslim and Chinese have their own new year's resolutions, stressed the new year just to make the story more.
But these feelings has been materially affected, reminiscent of the stock market crash in early 2000, when Western countries are celebrating the Millennium. This comment rather ridiculous, and the real "Millennium" was only started in 2001. Really important is early 2000 the long-term earnings ratio of stocks reached highest level in 1881, with the Dow Jones index fell sharply after 2000 14th reached a historical high.
The third story is the fall in oil prices. Shale oil production not long ago was widely seen as a remarkable achievement by the Americans, unfortunately now the whole story has been subverted, those "Heroes" they can yield results sent oil prices tumbling.
There's a fourth story, the United States stock market has soared from 2009-14 twice. I last August, it has pointed out that many people know that stocks have risen too much, is very sensitive to bad, now the stock market was a sharp correction.
Most economists are not mentioned above, the story, or critically assess their emotional appeal of the story.
But the importance of these stories, it depends on how people feel about stories, and triggered an emotional response not only gave birth to revolution, also makes the stock market collapse.
Concerned about the stock market this year will be a series of new stories, including the four mentioned above.
These stories give rise to overlapping effect, caused the stock market to fall further, triggering more negative stories, are possible; what only time will prove enough.
(Author Robert j. Shiller in 2013, a Nobel Laureate in Economics)
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