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馬政權憑甚麼跟人家玩雲端產業呀?笑死人囉
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咦?

UDN又壞掉了啊?

不是政治正確的又會點下去一片黑呀?

貼新聞洗版黨工小圈圈還是UDN的排行榜主流呀?

哈哈,一點都不意外、一點都不意外...

  

以為挖角幾個過氣又丟了大陸市場的CEO,以為跟幾個搞代工的馬友友你儂我儂,選後拿人民的血汗錢瘋狂低利無擔保大聯貸就可以挽救面板業?就可以救四大慘業?就可以跟人家玩雲端?

Back Bond建設落後、寬頻費用高居不下、ISP壟斷又服務低劣,....這都不是Cloud Computing在台灣發展不起來的致命傷。

最重要的就是自由與創新的精神,不只沒有被鼓勵,反而一直被壓制。台灣法西斯式的洗版與調計數器低劣到比大陸還不如。

中國大陸把孤狗趕出大陸、讓非死不可行不得也,很多綠營蠢人或馬黨人士喜歡當美國馬前卒的浪漫的大喊言論自由。可笑的是大陸網民在批判貪官的自由度與尺度早已超越台灣,各類針對不同族群的社群也蓬勃到流量直逼全球第一,裡面當然有很多低級的、情色的、反社會的、盜版的...亂七八糟的小眾社群。大陸為什麼要睜一眼閉一眼?放任大陸網站各種怪象?當然是著眼於雲端產業!大陸官方當然是要保護他的本國產業在幼苗期有充足的水與陽光來滋長!不砍掉這些外來的遮蔭大樹,本土的品種哪裡有長大茁壯的機會?

台灣法西斯政權的想法怪異,只會沒出息的想著當人家的Server基地,搞啥新北雲端谷,可笑!這種蠢想法昨天宏碁老董已經痛批過了。亞洲地區有各自的文化語言,憑哪一點台灣可以當別國的Server基地?最近的韓國人肯嗎?甚麼都是韓國人的韓國會自廢文創產業與雲端內容提供者的機會嗎?菲律賓肯嗎?

大陸?要讓你孤狗當基地?想都不用想!

更蠢的還以為這些靠聯貸予大量補貼來混日子的低能快倒廠商還可以在Cloud Computing Equipment上分一杯羹。Storage Device的生產力人家大陸、印度、泰國、墨西哥...早就超越台灣N倍了,沒技術、沒產能,憑甚麼在Storage Device上跟人家爭?CPU與OS都人家的智財權,Server又憑甚麼跟人家爭?

台灣唯一最有可能成功的、所付成本最低的一條Cloud Computing成功之路就是當數位內容提供者(Digital content providers)了。台灣不論在文化活力、音樂、影像、文學、APP...的創造力上都還有競爭力,這也是唯一可以吸引全球網友,讓台灣ISP與ICP可以立足全球的最後機會。

可惜因為台灣藍綠當馬前足當走狗出賣台灣人利益來當小小總督的慣性,台灣把自己綁死了,讓台灣的發展立下了重重阻礙。現在要看台灣的文創產品,反而在大陸網站才能看得到,音樂影像創作早已消失在台灣自己的網站,要看到居然不是美國的Youtube就是大陸的網易或酷客!大陸的網站與視聽節目像是新人選拔會,反而比台灣所提供的大環境更友善!長此以往,台灣還跟人家談甚麼文創產業?雲端產業?笑死人不償命!

UDN早期有不少可看性很高的作家,印象很深的一位長於心理分析式的小說,一位能寫具備歷史觀的“情色文學",兩位都被法西斯手下的黨工所不喜,政治不正確嘛,不是白色恐怖告御狀、就是常常使出卑劣下賤的手段屏蔽別人的網站或Blog,現在看來台灣的網站只剩下轉貼工轉貼大作,與配合“高層"政治目的的低劣政治文宣。這種東西還憑甚麼去跟人家當Digital content providers呀?還憑甚麼跟人家玩雲端啊?

很少一個產業才一開始台灣就被判出局的。

也很少政權還沒上任就注定土崩瓦解的;雲端產業的題材如果前半年玩不起來,主客觀環境最慢在第二季國際大廠就會表態,表態完該倒的就會倒,最後一批人才該出走的就會出走,那時候就是政權與台灣經濟災難的開始。

  



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台灣媒體如果認為在DRAM問題上可以聯美抗韓,那就太幼稚不負責了
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爾必達宣布破產重整後,台灣媒體出現了一種奇怪的論調:DRAM市場少了一個競爭者,陷於燒錢困境的台灣廠商有救了,甚至以為可以聯合美光對抗韓國,這是非常不負責任的說法。

1.長期以來台灣DRAM被財團把持予取予求,不思研發進步,迷信降低成本、擴大產能可以在市場上與列強一爭長短;於是乎與政客結盟,大量從銀行搬錢擴充產能,卻沒有考量到整體市場的胃納量,殊不知科技的市場上Innovation才是提供新市場的唯一因素,Laptop在台灣欠缺創新與開拓性的運用,一如日本在PC市場節節敗退導致DRAM需求萎縮一樣。台灣政客與科技制定者沒有遠見、不負責任(甚至與廠商沆瀣一氣,圖利少數廠商,卻扼殺整體產業)的種種政策,才是市場面不斷潰敗的真正原因。如今台廠指望MS Windows 8上是可以帶來買氣,那似乎也是緣木求魚;值此不景氣的當下與美國大選年,美方必定想方設法把DRAM需求留在美國。

2.無研發、不長進讓nand flash拱手讓給韓國,portable device高速成長,台灣依舊是冬天。這幾年美韓在DRAM、EEPROM..等技術已有長足的進步,當初從Toshiba買技術的Hynix,Samsung精益求精更上一層樓更獨創了穿隧式讀寫技術,早非吳下阿蒙,如今就算Laptop景氣突然好轉,台廠規格、品質、產能是否可以跟上? 問題早有答案。

3.韓國科技業與美方交叉持股情況,先前也有多位朋友提及,雖然外界難以窺探持股與技術相互支援的比例,但是光是看 http://city.udn.com/59483/4767848?cate_no=0&pno=1&tpno=&f_ORDER_BY=#reply,(引用文章这个到想起一句老话.........)可以理解美韓某種程度已經有策略聯盟,而自毀長城的,竟然就是我們自己的官僚體系。

 

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爾必達破產,美光將是最大的獲益者
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Micron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival: Tech

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) will probably emerge as the top winner from the bankruptcy of Elpida Memory Inc. (6665), whose filing yesterday sidelines the last Japanese maker of computer memory chips and gives rivals the chance to scoop up factories on the cheap.

Elpida filed for Japan’s biggest bankruptcy in two years after chip prices plunged and it failed to win a second government bailout. The elimination of a top maker of dynamic random access memory would give the rest of the industry more control over production, helping to ease the price swings that have left Micron unprofitable for six of the past 10 years.

Enlarge imageMicron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Micron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Micron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Matthew Staver/Bloomberg

The headquarters building of Micron Technology Inc. in Boise, Idaho. Micron shares jumped 7.7 percent yesterday amid speculation that the company, the fourth-largest DRAM maker, might seek to acquire some of Elpida’s plants.

The headquarters building of Micron Technology Inc. in Boise, Idaho. Micron shares jumped 7.7 percent yesterday amid speculation that the company, the fourth-largest DRAM maker, might seek to acquire some of Elpida’s plants. Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg

Enlarge imageMicron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Micron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Micron Biggest Winner as Elpida Bankruptcy Sidelines Rival

Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Elpida Memory Inc. memory chips are displayed in this arranged photograph in Tokyo, Japan.

Elpida Memory Inc. memory chips are displayed in this arranged photograph in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Elpida’s creditors will look for ways to recoup losses through the sale of such assets as a plant in Hiroshima valued at $1 billion by Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. For potential buyers such as Micron, that price tag would be about a fifth of the cost of building a new equivalent facility. That would fit with Micron’s strategy of trying to buy up capacity cheaply, rather than making acquisitions that outstrip the company’s $1.9 billion in cash and compel it to take on debt.

“Micron is clearly the winner,” said Dan Berenbaum, a New York-based analyst at MKM Partners LP. “Now it’s a question of how much does Micron pay for the assets.”

Micron shares jumped 7.7 percent yesterday amid speculation that the company, the fourth-largest DRAM maker, might seek to acquire some of Elpida’s plants. Dan Francisco, a spokesman for Boise, Idaho-based Micron, declined to comment.

Elpida has facilities that are responsible for about 18 percent of DRAM industry output, making it the No. 3 supplier. A push to take the plants offline or use them for other kinds of chips would help ease oversupply and stem industrywide losses.

Falling Demand

The computer-memory industry has been grappling with a decline in demand, brought on by a global consumer shift to smartphones and tablet computers, which need less memory and typically use a different type of chip.

Elpida’s troubles were exacerbated by DRAM prices falling below the cost of production. Industry sales last year dropped 26 percent to $29.2 billion, according to an estimate by Gartner Inc. That followed a 72 percent surge in 2010.

The Japanese chipmaker was the product of a 1999 merger between the memory businesses of NEC Corp. and Hitachi Ltd., which exited the industry.

‘Ten-Foot Pole’

If Micron makes a bid for some DRAM facilities, Elpida’s creditors will get an offer that’s “tough to swallow,” because the U.S. company knows it’s not likely to face any competition, said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc.

“Nobody else is going to touch DRAM with a ten-foot pole,” said Mosesmann, who has a “strong buy” rating on Micron shares. “Micron is very practical. They don’t want all of Elpida.”

Earlier this month, Micron’s management told Mosesmann and other analysts the company is monitoring events in Japan to see if there are opportunities. Executives declined to comment on whether Elpida is one of them and what the company might do.

“It just doesn’t feel like there’s going to be any fresh capital put into the DRAM business,” Micron President Mark Adams said in an interview on Feb. 9. “If we’re right, then the industry is mature enough that consolidation could make a lot of sense.”

Elpida has total debt of about $4 billion and has reported five straight quarters of losses. Micron, which has been making acquisitions and driving industry consolidation for more than 10 years, has about $1.95 billion of debt, approximately equal to its cash reserves. The company has a target range for its debt-to-capital ratio of 20 percent to 25 percent. Its current cash plus market capital of $8.4 billion give it a debt-to-capital ratio of about 18 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Debt Guidelines

If Micron stays within those guidelines -- giving it the latitude to borrow about another $500 million -- it’s not going to have enough leeway to buy its Japanese rival, said Daniel Amir, a San Francisco-based analyst at Lazard Capital Markets LLC.

“They probably won’t just buy out Elpida,” Amir said.“They are not willing to break the bank. It’s not like they’re going to spend $2 billion.”

Samsung Electronics Co., which dominates the memory-chip business and is the only consistently profitable company in the industry, has said it will concentrate on running its own business, making it an unlikely bidder for Elpida’s assets.

“Samsung is not going to come to their rescue,” said Raymond James’s Mosesmann.

Profit Struggle

Excluding Samsung -- which is also the world’s second-largest maker of mobile phones and the biggest maker of liquid crystal displays -- DRAM makers have struggled to make money.

Matching supply with demand poses a constant challenge in the market for DRAM for personal computers, where plants take years to come online and can’t be shut down cheaply. With factories costing billions of dollars to build, companies such as Elpida have found themselves facing debts they have trouble repaying.

In six of the past 10 years, industry companies have spent more cash than their operations have generated. Even including Samsung, whose share price has more than tripled, memory makers as a group have lost 40 percent of their market value since October 2002.

If output from Elpida’s plants is slowed down or halted, all of its rivals will benefit as supply gets closer to demand and prices stabilize, according to Shawn Webster, an analyst at Macquarie Capital USA Inc.

“Any time a competitor is in distress, it’s a positive for everybody else,” said Webster. “If you pull supply offline, that could help everybody in the DRAM industry.”

Micron CEO

Earlier this month, Micron lost longtime Chief Executive Officer Steve Appleton, who died in a plane crash. Mosesmann and other analysts speculated that his death might slow any possible negotiations for industry consolidation, because Appleton had been the driving force behind previous transactions.

Micron, which got its start with an investment from local potato magnate J.R. Simplot, became one of the largest makers of computer memory when it bought the memory operations of Texas Instruments Inc. in 1998. Since then, it has acquired plants from Toshiba Corp., bought control of a Japanese joint venture, and formed partnerships with Taiwan’s Nanya Technology Corp. andIntel Corp. to secure access to more production.

In 2008, as Germany’s Qimonda AG headed for bankruptcy and sought investments, Micron bought out its interest in Inotera Memories Inc. (3474) Qimonda subsequently went out of business, and its chipmaking equipment was sold off.

Micron has also walked away from opportunities. In April 2002, it abandoned a transaction under which it would have acquired the memory operations of South Korea’s Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the second-largest DRAM maker, after the companies couldn’t agree on terms.

‘In No Rush’

One way that Micron might consider a purchase of Elpida would be if it could get cheap financing for a transaction from Elpida’s creditors, which are facing the dilemma of knowing that restructuring the company’s debt wouldn’t be enough to make it competitive again, according to Betsy Van Hees, a San Francisco-based analyst at Wedbush Securities. Elpida needs more money to invest in making its production more efficient, she said.

When asked on Feb. 10 whether he would take Micron’s debt level above 25 percent of its capital to make an acquisition that would consolidate the industry, Chief Executive Officer Mark Durcan told analysts he was going to be “very careful about putting the company in a position where we’re not confident we can deal with any additional debt.”

Still, he would consider taking the debt ratio higher if there was a good enough opportunity, he said.

“If they can get the current creditors to finance the deal at a very low interest rate, then it might make sense,” said Van Hees. Unless that happens, “they are in no rush to do anything.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ian King in San Francisco at ianking@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net.

 

最後一段非常的血腥,也非常的寫實。除了透露負債40億美元的爾必達未來無可選擇的選擇以外;弦外之意,這一切的發展也在Micron的掌握中,可以讓很多人再三省思。

張忠謀先生對此一事件的評論是最內行且精準的。但是台灣的多數媒體回避了他的評論;摘錄他的談話於後,給對此重大事件的兩岸朋友參考:

DRAM prices may rise due to worries of production capacity coming offline following Elpida's bankruptcy filing.

"But over the long run, the outlook for our DRAM sector could remain grim," Chang said. "In the past, we hope to align with Japan and the United States to take on South Korea. Following Elpida's failure, we may have even less choice in our fight against Korean rivals."



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爾必達風暴只一個開始
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我個人認為當務之急首先要總體檢所有TDR的營運情況,充分揭示資產負債情況了,並且要求氣業對曝險部位作出立即的補強動作,否則後續的效應難以評估。日前媒體揭露的諸如處分爾必達存託股票、要求爾必達無條件購回存託憑證,這些都是天方夜譚的說法。如果金管單位一再讓投資人喪失信心,那國際信評機構的近一步動作,恐怕就在眼前。

其於有關Samsung在DRAM崛起的過程,也不是台灣不負責任的媒體所說的,稍後再補述。

 

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真不知該說是烏鴉嘴還是真的太神了!
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你們先一步討論的事情都會一一實現!

現在最壞的情況發生了,接下來呢? 爾必達風暴應該不是最後一張骨牌吧?

聯美(光)抗韓真的是解決DRAM問題停止風暴的好辦法嗎?

我看2012全球經濟的問題不是歐債風暴了,亞債風暴看起來暴風半徑似乎更大得多

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台灣的媒体是蠻有意思的
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好大一個將軍要說話了: 說國民黨沒殺台灣同胞或是殺的人還不算多,反正老子英雄兒好漢,發個通知說老子我大元帥要開記者會,台灣媒体不就乖乖來了麽? 愛說啥就說啥還怕版面不夠?

幹啥忽然的又成了個"百姓""庶民"了?硬要跟人家真百姓搶那個"民意"?

這麼一琢磨,我可就懂了.我可就懂了.

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與老東家之間的情與義
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台灣人被某些法西斯形容成"理盲濫情",也確實如此啊

如果有個先知先覺者說過了別再給某些產業借款了,新的舊的都不要,這個局是個無解的局

結果,所有最壞的事都發生了,而且老東家欠下了天文數字的貸款,且無力償還

欠債的事是瞞不了的,永遠是傳播最快的事

如果有恩有義的老東家找上了"理盲濫情"的掌櫃的: 兄弟呀,救救我

這位當兄弟的該怎麼做?

 

禪林有云:

有人向老僧請益:進一步死, 退一步亡, 如之何?

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平潭成功与否我不知道,TPP要成的话亚洲人就不要活了
    回應給: boxer(boxer119) 推薦42


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平潭成功与否我不知道,TPP要成的话亚洲人就不要活了。

呵呵,TPP一定不会如美国所愿,正如偶《闲话》时候说的。

此外,如果马想去玩TPP,那么即使大陆不做出反应,单纯台湾本岛自身的高科技产业都将在TPP架构下被美国拆掉。后面还涉及复杂的市场开放,经济政策主权让渡,农业安全与政治影响。

马真想玩,我到是想看这个“新马关条约”怎么签。哈哈............


方如行义,圆如用智,动如逞才,静如遂意。

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平潭綜合實驗區會成功?還是加入TPP的自由貿易區會成功?
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請哪一位幫忙分析一下吧

我押寶平潭。「四個一千」人才工程,薪水很高很吸引人。

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只需要單方宣傳根本不需要的就是建議,要不然怎麼叫法西斯?
    回應給: 吧啦(lala007) 推薦18


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不過選前這樣選後還要這樣嗎? 馬上得天下馬上治得了天下?

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「不救DRAM,不配當總統」是誰說的呀?
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結果捏?

恭喜喔.....

結果是茂德被櫃買中心公告,國內DRAM廠茂德將於三月廿六日下市

下市耶~!~

其實最可怕的還沒來,如果Q2某家又虧個美金兩三億,Q3又加碼個兩三億,下市的只有茂德嗎? 當初剛愎自用亂決策所造成的龐大虧損毫不負責的兩萬點嘻皮笑臉就賴過了,那這筆天文數字的債又要誰來揹呢?

去年年底被標普與惠譽警告的曝險部位還有救嗎? 信評的大刀在茂德下市後......

我看跟歐債沒關吧,這應該是台灣人民集體自作孽的結果囉

 

http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN2/6520307.shtml
信評示警! 台灣銀行業放款過度集中雙D產業

【聯合晚報╱記者陳雲上/台北報導】 2011.08.11 02:58 pm


惠譽國際信用評等公司上午舉行「台灣銀行對科技業曝險」記者會,並公布國內前十大電子科技產業占銀行放款排行,面板業的奇美電和電子龍頭鴻海分居授信排行一、二名,各達3091億元及3070億元,且均逼近銀行對單一客戶授信占淨值15%的上限。
總計前十大電子科技產業的放款總額達到1兆3395億元,占全體放款6.5%、占銀行淨值比62.4%,換算成銀行業電子科技的暴險比率僅占13%
,並沒有想像的那麼大。
惠譽信評即將發布「Taiwanese Banks’Exposure to Technology Industry: Display Panel Makers a Risk」報告,說明台灣面板製造商的營運狀況及其將對銀行業的信用品質造成影響,目前銀行授信觀察中,DRAM和面板產業授信集中化是各方較為關切的暴險風險所在。
惠譽信評副總李佳信指出,台灣電子業占台灣出口約41%,而出口產值占GDP約七成,等於電子科技業的出口產值占GDP 約三成,但對照台灣銀行業對電子科技的暴險只有13%,並不如原先想像的大,也顯示台灣產業在面對二次或三次衰退時,整體銀行的暴險風險應該足以承擔,風險相對輕微。
不過,較令人擔心的是,茂德580億元聯貸案協商及面板業第二季持續擴大虧損兩大疑慮,讓惠譽信評升高對國內DRAM 及面板兩大產業的疑慮。且從銀行授信前十名的排行中,奇美電授信額度超過3900億元、友達1280億元,國內三大面板廠占銀行授信總額高達2.3%、占銀行淨值比達23%,面對面板長期低迷,一旦還款能減弱,恐將對銀行業帶來較大衝擊。
所幸目前面板業的現金流量尚稱充裕、二、三年內的短期低盪對銀行暴險風險暫時無需擔憂,且目前看起來面板只是短期衰退,只要不超過三、五年,應可度過調整期。
至於DRAM廠長期虧損、近期茂德與銀行團的協商債務進度緩慢,銀行過度集中對DRAM廠授信,但深入統計銀行對DRAM業的授信比僅0.5%,除部分集中授信銀行風險較高外,對全體銀行業的衝擊影響還不算大,頂多就是獲利減少一點。
整體看來,DRAM和面板的授信集中是目前較值得觀察的產業,但就以全體銀行對電子科技業暴險僅達13%來看,台灣的銀行業就算面對景氣二次衰退或三次衰退,應該還是具有相當的承擔風險能力。 <------  

全文網址: 信評示警! 台灣銀行業放款過度集中雙D產業



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