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中共展現和戰兩面貌
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http://news.yam.com/bcc/china/200802/20080220361591.html
國防新聞週刊:美應慎防中共笑臉攻勢
中廣新聞網╱劉芳 2008-02-20 10:28

最近一期美國《國防新聞》周刊指出,趁著美國被伊拉克戰爭拖得無法分身,中共在全球各地大肆擴張。不管中共的笑臉攻勢是善意還是惡意,美國必須強化與亞洲盟國間的關係,也要重振美國本身的經濟。(劉芳報導)

最新一期《國防新聞》週刊的專題報導是「亞洲國家的國防」,除了中國大陸外,另外四個主題國家是新加坡、南韓、印度、以及澳大利亞。

有關中國,報導詳細列出一年來中國與世界各國的軍事交往,這些國家有美、英、法等軍事強權,也有東加、象牙海岸、柬埔寨等開發中國家。中共邀請日本、俄羅斯、西班牙等國派遣觀察員到大陸參與軍事演習,中共本身也派遣軍艦與英國等國舉行聯合演習。也就是說,中共正在全世界展開笑臉攻勢,強化雙邊及多邊交往,擴張影響力。

這種趨勢引起專家們不同的看法。美國戰爭學院教授柯爾認為,中共的目的是要建立東亞霸權,美國在世界各地的利益受到衝擊和影響。也有專家認為,中共的作法只是國力崛起的必然趨勢,並不是要挑戰美國的地位。

報導說,不管中共的企圖是什麼,美國必須修補與東亞盟國的外交及軍事關係,美國也要提振經濟,這樣美國要施展笑臉攻勢時,才有足夠實力。

(中廣記者劉芳美國華盛頓報導)  


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中共國防預算 4177億人民幣
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http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR1/4244078.shtml
中共國防預算 4177億人民幣

【聯合報╱特派記者汪莉絹、李春/北京報導】 2008.03.05 03:59 am


中共國防預算又將增加。全國人大發言人姜恩柱昨天透露,國務院提請全國人大會議審批的今年國防預算,是4177.69億元人民幣,比上年預算執行數增加623.79億元,增長百分之17.6。

「按照去年年底人民幣兌換美元的匯率計算,大概約合572.29億美元,因為美元大幅貶值」,姜恩柱說。他強調,與前幾年相比,今年國防預算占全國財政支出預算略有下降。

姜恩柱說,今年國防預算增加,主要用在幾方面:提高軍隊官兵待遇;根據物價上漲情況,相應提高士兵伙食費,增加軍隊油料購置投入;適應部隊訓練需要,適當提高公務事業費和教育訓練費標準;適度增加裝備建設經費,提高軍隊在信息化條件下的防衛作戰能力。 

針對外界對中共軍費以及軍力問題的議論,姜恩柱強調,近年來,中共政府在經濟持續平穩較快發展和財政收入快速增長的基礎上,適度增加國防費,但這種增長是屬於彌補國防基礎薄弱的補償性增長。近幾年,國防費增長的比例遠低於財政收入的增長,占國內生產總值的比重和占財政預算支出的比重與其他國家相比,特別是與一些大國相比,處於較低的水平。

以去年為例,美國國防費占其GDP比重為百分之4.6,占其財政預算支出的比重為百分之16.6,英國分別為百分之3和百分之6.9,法國分別為百分之2和百分之13.5,俄羅斯分別為百分之2.63和百分之15.1,印度分別為百分之2.5和百分之14.1,而中國防費占GDP比重僅百分之1.4,占財政預算支出的比重僅為百分之7.2。

姜恩柱說,中共堅持奉行防御禦性的國防政策,有限的軍事力量,完全為維護國家獨立、主權和領土完整。

【2008/03/05 聯合報】

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中國今年國防預算成長17.6%
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http://news.yam.com/cna/china/200803/20080304631010.html
中國今年國防預算成長17.6%
中央社╱中央社 2008-03-04 15:14     

(中央社記者周慧盈北京四日電)中國十一屆全國人大一次會議新聞發言人姜恩柱今天說,二零零八年中國國防預算為人民幣四千一百七十七億六千九百萬元,較上年預算執行增加六百二十三億七千九百萬元,成長百十七點六。

中國十一屆全國人大一次會議明天開幕。大會今天舉行記者會,姜恩柱在會中回答媒體提問時做了以上表示。

他說,中國今年提出的國防費預算佔全國財政支出預算略有下降,主要用於幾個方面:一是提高軍隊官兵待遇;二是根據物價上漲情況,相應提高士兵伙食費,增加軍隊油料購置投入。

三是適應部隊訓練需要,適當提高公務事業費和教育訓練費標準;四是適度增加裝備建設經費,提高軍隊在資訊化條件下的防衛作戰能力。

姜恩柱說,近年來中國政府在經濟持續平穩較快發展和財政收入快速增加的基礎上,適度增加了國防費。這種成長是屬於彌補國防基礎薄弱的補償性成長。

對於外界質疑中國軍費成長快速,姜恩柱辯護說,從一九七八年到一九八九年,中國國防費平均每年下降百分之五點八三。近幾年,國防費增加的比例遠遠低於財政收入的成長。

他說,二零零三至二零零七年,中國國防支出年均成長百分之十五點八,明顯低於同期財政收入年均成長百分之二十二點一的水平。

他表示,中國國防費佔國內生產總值的比重和佔財政預算支出的比重與其他國家相比,特別是一些大國相比,均處於較低的水平。

姜恩柱說,以去年為例,美國國防費佔其GDP比重為百分之四點六,佔其財政預算支出的比重為百分十六點六,英國分別為百分之三和百分之六點九,而中國國防費佔GDP比重僅為百分之一點四,佔財政預算支出的比重為百分之七點二。

不過外界對中國公佈的國防預算數額一直存疑。美國國防部昨天發佈年度「中國軍力報告」,指過去十一年來,中國的軍費成長平均比例超過國民生產毛額的平均成長,解放軍實際軍費應該是北京公佈數字的三倍。美國政府評估,去年中國的年度軍費總額,應介於九百七十億至一千三百九十億美元之間。

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Auchi connection
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080229/NATION04/643772400&SearchID=73310179441578
Inside the Ring
By Bill Gertz
February 29, 2008

Auchi connection

New attention is being focused on indirect connections between Iraqi-British billionaire Nadhmi Auchi, who has been tied to illegal activities in Iraq and France, and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

Auchi gave at least $10.5 million to Obama fundraiser Antoin "Tony" Rezko, including a payment of $3.5 million that coincided with Mr. Obama's purchase in 2005 of a $1.65 million Chicago house, the London Times reported Tuesday. The newspaper said the timing of the payment and the house purchase, along with the purchase of land next door by Mr. Rezko's wife Rita from the same seller, raise questions about whether Auchi helped buy the house.

Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, would not answer when asked if Auchi helped buy the senator's house. He said the senator did not recall ever meeting Auchi, who was convicted of corruption charges in France in 2003.

UPDATE: Since initial publication of this story, Mr. Burton has stated in an e-mail to Inside the Ring that he flatly denies that Auchi indirectly helped Obama purchase the house.

A lawyer for Auchi told the London Times that his client is not aware that the money from a company linked to Auchi was used to buy Mr. Obama's house. The newspaper stated that Auchi and Mr. Obama had a brief encounter in 2004 at the Four Seasons Hotel in Chicago.

A 2004 Pentagon report obtained by The Washington Times identified Auchi as a global arms dealer and Iraqi billionaire "who, behind the facade of legitimate business, served as Saddam Hussein's principle international financial manipulator and bag man."

The report to the Pentagon inspector general stated that "significant and credible evidence was developed that a conspiracy was organized by Nadhmi Auchi to offer bribes to 'fix' the awarding of cellular licensing contracts covering three geographic areas of Iraq" under the U.S. Coalition Provisional Authority.

"Additionally, significant and credible evidence has been developed that Nadhmi Auchi has engaged in unlawful activities working closely with Iraqi intelligence operatives to:

• "Bribe foreign governments and individuals prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom to turn opinion against the American-led mission to remove Saddam Hussein.

• "Arrange for significant theft from the U.N. Oil-for-Food Program to smuggle weapons and dual-use technology into Iraq ....

• "Organize an elaborate scheme to take over and control the post-war cellular phone system in Iraq."

The report suggests Auchi has ties to British intelligence through a 2002 association with a former British intelligence chief, and that British telecommunications companies may have used Auchi to gain access to cellular phone markets in post-invasion Iraq.

Auchi has denied accusations over the cell phone contract.

The London Times reported that Auchi gave a $3.5 million loan to Mr. Rezko in May 2005 through a Panamanian company linked to the Iraqi expatriate called Fintrade Services SA.

Several weeks after the loan, Mr. Obama purchased a house on Chicago's South Side and Mr. Rezko's wife bought an expensive plot of land next to the house from the same seller on the same day. Mr. Rezko's wife later sold a 10-foot section of the property to Mr. Obama, to add to the Illinois Democrat's garden. Mr. Obama has called the land purchase a mistake.

Fight over China

Bush administration officials say a new political battle is brewing between U.S. intelligence analysts and policy-makers over the threat posed by China's military buildup.

The dispute involves differences between the Pentagon's tougher view, outlined in the forthcoming China military power report, and the softer views held by key intelligence community analysts.

Senior analysts in the office of the director of national intelligence (ODNI) are said by defense officials to be deliberately underestimating the nature and scope of China's conventional and nuclear forces buildup, and whether it is focused solely on a possible future conflict over Taiwan, or is much bigger and more ominous in posing a greater threat to the U.S. and its allies in Asia.

The Pentagon view, which is backed by the State Department, is that the buildup of mobile missiles, submarines, warships, bombers, space and cyber weapons is part of a Beijing program of preparing for war with Taiwan and an anticipated U.S. defense of the island, but also possible conflicts with India, Japan, Vietnam and others in the region.

The political fight is said to be similar to the battle triggered by a politically-charged National Intelligence Estimate made public in December asserting that Iran halted work on nuclear weapons years ago, even though Tehran is illegally enriching uranium, a key component for bombs.

Pentagon officials said hints of the dispute surfaced Wednesday during Senate Armed Services Committee testimony by Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence (DNI). Mr. McConnell's written statement on China's arms modernization dismisses concerns that the buildup is a threat.

"We judge that any Chinese regime, even a democratic one, would have similar goals," he stated, suggesting China is a normal state and not a nuclear-armed communist dictatorship.

As with the Iran estimate, the key figure is Thomas Fingar, a career State Department analyst who is now deputy DNI for analysis. Two other analysts under Mr. Fingar identified as part of the faction on China are National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Paul Heer, and his deputy Lonnie Henley. The fourth is DNI military analyst and retired Army Maj. Gen. John Landry, who helped write the bogus 2002 Iraq weapons estimate and who, surprisingly, is still employed at the National Intelligence Council.

Of the four, Mr. Henley's pro-China bias is the most egregious. In 2006, he indirectly supported the unauthorized disclosure of intelligence to China by writing a letter of support to the judge on behalf of convicted former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Ron Montaperto, who pleaded guilty to espionage-related charges after admitting he passed secrets to Chinese military intelligence agents.

DNI spokesman Ross Feinstein denied there is a dispute over China and said the assertion "appear to be merely an attempt by you or others to incite angst or provoke a fight that does not actually exist."

The four officials tried and failed to block elements of the tougher assessment of China's military capabilities to be released next month by the Pentagon that will contain new information on China's military, including its growing power projection arms. The report, required by Congress, will be the first made public close to the time it is required, and its content has surprised some officials by getting the stamp of approval from State Department policy-makers.

Perry in Pyongyang

Former Defense Secretary William Perry, who once prepared to go to war with North Korea to block the communist regime of Kim Jong-il from getting nuclear weapons, made a visit to Pyongyang this week.

Mr. Perry, defense secretary from 1994 to 1997, traveled to Pyongyang to take part in the New York Philharmonic concert held in the capital as part of an effort to develop cultural ties to the Stalinist Kim regime.

Mr. Perry said during a recent meeting at his Stanford University office that he expects North Korea to reach an agreement with the U.S. and four other nations to fully disclose its nuclear program, probably before the end of the year.

The six-party talks are stalled over North Korea's failure to provide a full accounting of its past uranium enrichment activities.

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華時專欄:美對中國軍事建置威脅看法分歧
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http://news.yam.com/cna/international/200803/20080301559664.html
華時專欄:美對中國軍事建置威脅看法分歧
中央社╱中央社 2008-03-01 05:06     

(中央社記者蔡蕙如華盛頓二十九日專電)「華盛頓時報」專欄今天引述布希政府官員說法指出,美國的情報分析家與決策者間對中國軍事建置發展造成威脅的看法分歧,正醞釀新的政治爭鬥;論辯涉及了五角大夏在即將發布的中國軍力報告中將概述較強硬觀點,以及關鍵情報分析家所持較溫和看法。

「五角圈內」專欄說,五角大廈觀點受國務院支持,認為中國建置可移動導彈,潛艇,戰艦,轟炸機,太空和網路武器,不僅屬於北京對與台灣作戰與預期美國協防的準備計畫,也包括與印度,日本,越南和其他區域國家的可能衝突。

而專欄據國防部官員說法表示,國家情報總監辦公室的資深分析家刻意低估中國傳統與核子武器建置的本質和規模,以及中國是只針對未來可能與台灣發生的衝突,還是更廣大且更不祥預示對美國和亞洲盟國的更大威脅。

五角大廈官員指出,國家情報總監麥康奈週三於參議院軍事委員會作證時,對中國武器現代化的書面聲明排除建置構成威脅的憂慮,讓爭辯的暗示浮出檯面。

麥康奈說:「我們評斷,任何中國政權,即使為民主,都會有類似目標。」專欄表示,他意旨中國是一個正常的國家,而不是擁核的共產主義獨裁統治。

國家情報總監發言人范士丹則否認有對於中國的爭辯,並對詢問人表示這項指稱「似乎只是由你或其他人企圖煽動焦慮或挑起實際上不存在的爭鬥。」

但專欄指出,這個政治爭鬥據說類似國家情報評估去年公開指稱伊朗數年前已停止發展核武引起的爭鬥。而和伊朗評估一樣,關鍵人物是專責分析的副國家情報總監馮稼時。其他還包括他旗下的分析師黑爾、其副手亨利,以及國家情報總監軍事分析家藍德瑞。

專欄說,四人中以亨利的親中偏差最令人驚訝。他曾經為從事中國間諜相關活動遭定罪的前國防情報局分析師馬隆德寫支持信,間接支持在未經批准的情況下披露情報給中國。

根據專欄,這四名官員試圖但未能阻止下個月將由五角大廈發布對中國軍事能力較強硬的評估資訊,其中包括中國日漸增長的軍力投射武器等中國軍事新資訊。

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美學者:中藉經貿與建軍弱化美在亞洲影響力
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http://news.yam.com/cna/international/200802/20080228528287.html
美學者:中藉經貿與建軍弱化美在亞洲影響力
中央社╱中央社 2008-02-28 11:23     

(中央社記者林芥佑華盛頓二十七日專電)華府兩岸問題專家沙特今天在國會一場公聽會指出,中國一方面透過強化經貿互賴策略綁住美國,逐步促使美國在台灣等較敏感議題上讓步,另一方面卻加快軍事現代化,專注發展因應美國介入台灣的能力。他提醒美國政府,一旦亞洲力量均勢改變,中國可能會對台灣採更脅迫手段。

國會立法成立的「美中經濟安全檢討委員會」今天舉行公聽會,討論中國對於主權強化的觀點與方法。目前擔任喬治城大學訪問教授的沙特應邀出席,針對中國強化主權的「非軍事手段」這部分深入說明。

沙特指出,中國因為有一段長期歷史遭外國侵犯,至今仍有強烈的受害者情結,尤其是美國保護台灣,是中國當前認為主權受到侵犯的一籮筐議題之首。

沙特說,中國至今也仍認為周邊強國是其主權的實際或潛在威脅,因此中國領導人不管是在毛澤東時期或者後毛澤東時期至今,致力發展由經濟力與政治一元化所支持的強大軍事力量,目的就是用來保護主權並進一步增進主權空間。

至於強化主權的非軍事手段,沙特強調,就是經濟力,尤其是強化與美國的經貿互賴,自二零零一年九一一恐怖攻擊事件之後,中國更是調整策略,營造對美國和善、樂於互助的公眾形象,但同時卻毫不放鬆的強化軍事力量,準備因應美國介入台海衝突。

沙特形容,中國採取的是「格列佛策略」,用經濟力來綁住對中國主權有威脅性的美國霸權。中國領導人促進美中經貿互賴,有效約束美方可能對於中國的各項壓力。同時中國也積極發展與亞洲各國,尤其是美國盟國的國家,果然有效使這些國家更為支持中國,也比較不再積極加入美國對中施壓的行列。

他說,藉由經濟力量崛起以及與東亞國家建構雙邊或多邊經貿關係,中國成功擴大在亞洲的影響力。但他也指出,中國用「格列佛策略」綁住美國這個巨人,美國與其他亞洲強國也有一套自己的格列佛策略,就是透過交往與參與,試圖形成利益網絡來綁住中國,約制中國激進傾向與可能在亞洲與全球引發混亂的行為。

沙特認為,總的來說,中國的格列佛策略,加上美國與亞洲盟國的另一套格列佛策略,似乎當前可以補強亞洲地區的穩定,也似乎仍符合美國的利益。

但放眼未來,沙特指出,美國必須審慎認知,中國將因為情境的變化而改變策略方向,以進一步保護並增強主權空間。

他強調,中國仍對主權強化不盡滿意,也是個自認受到委屈的強權,一方面,中國運用的經貿互賴策略,可以讓中國未來與美國及東亞鄰國交涉敏感議題、例如台灣,更為容易,另一方面,中國持續快速建軍,強化能力以因應未來美國介入台海衝突。

沙特提醒,當中國崛起成為區域領導地位,美國在此區域的重要性與主導力量似乎更為降低,一旦亞洲地區的權力均勢與影響力現狀改變,將可能促使中國領導人採取更具脅迫性的手段對付台灣,並進而追求更強大的力量來主導亞洲。

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