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美國的人權雙重標準
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http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2013-01/10/c_124203237.htm

肯尼思·罗思:放弃8个鸡肋盟友

在美国总统竞选期间,挑战者米特·罗姆尼指责奥巴马“把以色列这样的盟友扔到车轮底下”,这句话很出名。

不过,有很多政府,它们虽然不至于被扔到车轮下,但在向美国索要无条件帮助的时候还是应该开门请它们出去。

 

在这样一个新世界,为人权事务奋斗,不仅反应了美国的价值,还显示了它的利益。这应该是美国的核心价值观,而不只是为了一时方便才拿出来说。如果奥巴马想在第二任期巩固政治遗产,他应该也必须对美国一些不好的朋友和盟友态度强硬起来。以下是一些良好言行的开端:

阿富汗:阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊削弱女性权利,任命被指控实施酷刑的人担任情报机关头目,纵容猖獗的腐败,阻碍对其军阀盟友的调查,奥巴马政府在这些方面还没有运用其强大的说服力。

乌兹别克斯坦:在2005年的暴乱中,卡里莫夫总统命令军队包围示威者。奥巴马政府不但没有采取严厉的制裁措施,而且还解除了在对其销售武器的禁令,因为除了巴基斯坦之外,乌兹别克斯坦是另一个能够向在阿富汗的军队进行补给的国家。

柬埔寨:在柬埔寨,奥巴马应该显示其亚洲“轴心”不是与中国争夺独裁者的忠心,而是旨在促进亚洲的民主。

卢旺达:在美国国会的坚持下,奥巴马政府终于结束了对卢旺达的一些军援,但对该国政治仍然持续干预,对其罪行轻描淡写。

埃塞俄比亚:华盛顿对已故埃塞俄比亚总理梅莱斯·泽纳维(Meles Zenawi)的高压政策视而不见。为了换取埃塞俄比亚打击恐怖主义和索马里青年党(al-Shabab)武装,奥巴马政府对该国安全部队的战争罪行和政府实施的限制默不作声。

沙特阿拉伯:沙特王室任意扣押了数千人,对妇女实施陈旧的法规,压制大多数反对者,对什叶派少数派采取错误政策,坚持其邻国巴林王室镇压亲民主运动。对此,奥巴马也没有发声。

巴林:在奥巴马支持“阿拉伯之春”示威活动的姿态面前,沙特的邻国巴林是最著名的一个例外。除了尊重沙特感情以及害怕失去美国第五舰队基地外,奥巴马政府还允许为了与巴林的安全关系而忽略了巴林人民对权力的关切。

墨西哥:美国政府已经拨款20亿美元支持墨西哥的反走私活动,但侵犯人权的现象大量出现,安全部队也非常腐败,以至于墨西哥政府还求助海军打击贩毒团伙。

肯尼思·罗思(Kenneth Roth)是“人权观察”执行主任。

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美國防長 Panetta: We're within reach of strategically defeating al-Qaeda
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Osama Bin Laden (left) with his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, at an undisclosed location in 2001

Last year, the state department's Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications released a brief video on YouTube with clips of exuberant young people participating in popular demonstrations in the Middle East.

Interspersed with these dramatic scenes was the now iconic photo of the late Osama Bin Laden watching television from his "man cave" in Pakistan, still a significant global figure but increasingly a spectator forced to react to agendas set in other places by other players.

A year after Bin Laden's demise, core al-Qaeda is struggling to survive as a coherent structure. As US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said last summer: "We're within reach of strategically defeating al-Qaeda."

Its leadership continues to be attacked and eliminated.

Its bench is not as strong as it once was. Core al-Qaeda remains capable of inspiring others to act, but it is questionable whether it still retains the capacity to do in 2012 what it did in 2001.

Lost rallying point

Much of the operational muscle of al-Qaeda has passed to its franchises or affiliates in Yemen, Iraq, the Maghreb, Somalia and potentially Nigeria, and close associates remain deeply engaged in Afghanistan.

In the heart of the Middle East, historic transformations are underway - and al-Qaeda had almost nothing to do with it”

End Quote

These units retain potent capabilities and have demonstrated the ability to hold territory and use it to challenge existing authorities, both in the region and beyond.

In the face of the Arab Awakening, al-Qaeda has tried to force itself back into the spotlight with attacks on the Assad regime in Syria, the Maliki government in Iraq and the transitional government in Yemen.

In other words, the armed struggle against al-Qaeda is not over.

But the United States and its allies are competing smartly, generally avoiding actions (the Koran-burning an obvious exception) that al-Qaeda can easily exploit.

The US withdrawal from Iraq took a major al-Qaeda rallying point off the table.

The costly 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation validated al-Qaeda's narrative that the United States was at war with Islam.

An unlikely agreement

Now military force is being employed far more discreetly.

Al-Qaeda recruits at a training camp in Afghanistan in mid-2001

The operations that took out al-Qaeda's two most prominent faces and voices, Bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki (the American-born radical cleric killed by a US drone strike in Yemen last September), off the playing field are good cases in point of strategic impact while putting few boots on the ground.

Bin Laden's successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has released a steady number of videos over the past year, but has not commanded the global stage in the way Bin Laden did.

The Obama administration's intervention in Libya came only after strong statements of support (and participation) from the region as well as a UN Security Council resolution that provided international legitimacy.

Al-Qaeda tried to take advantage of Muammar Gaddafi's demise, but found itself on the same side as the Benghazi rebels - and Nato.

Nonetheless, on the political front, al-Qaeda remains very much on the outside looking in.

In the heart of the Middle East, historic transformations are underway in multiple countries. And al-Qaeda had almost nothing to do with it.

A hard-sell message?

The political environment will become even more challenging for al-Qaeda, which will struggle for relevance in a newly energised and empowered public space that is far more competitive than even a year ago and far less hospitable to al-Qaeda's narrative than five years ago.

The amount of Muslim blood shed in suicide attacks did not greatly help al-Qaeda's public relations

George Washington University Professor Marc Lynch, in his new book Arab Uprising, refers to a shared and cohesive narrative of protest that has swept across the region. Al-Qaeda is not shaping it and is barely a part of it.

Even before Bin Laden's death, significant majorities across the Islamic world had stopped buying what he and his cohort were selling.

For one thing, the vast majority of Muslims don't want to live in the world Bin Laden envisioned.

For another, they eventually realised - helped by effective counter-messaging from the US government, the military and the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications - that far more Muslims were dying in al-Qaeda's wars with the near and far enemies.

Meaningful political, economic and social reforms will continue to undercut al-Qaeda's jihadist narrative.

Bin Laden preached that violent resistance was the only available path to meaningful political and social reform, but the people of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya dramatically demonstrated a clear alternative.

Long excluded groups are engaged in an expanding civil society, trying to build political structures, not blow them up.

The United States will be challenged in this new environment as well.

A moderating influence

The decline of al-Qaeda's popularity in the Islamic world has not resulted in a significant change in perceptions of US policies, despite the Obama administration's strong identification with protest movements from Libya to Yemen.

Will al-Qaeda's message have any resonance for the Arab Spring generation?

Some policy adjustments will be required while paying for more attention to regional public opinion than it has in the past.

But al-Qaeda will be challenged more.

The new Arab world will embrace many paths, not just one, hopefully with an expanding political space that is relatively peaceful, inclusive and tolerant - about as far from Bin Laden's vision as you can get.

What we should see ongoing now is a fierce competition within the Muslim world about the future path of political Islam.

There will be much trial and error, but the give-and-take among groups with different visions should have a moderating influence.

The United States must be strategic and accept the process, messy as it will be, and engage the leaders and the people they represent.

This is a new arena within which al-Qaeda will struggle to compete and certainly will not thrive.

PJ Crowley is a former US Assistant Secretary of State in the administration of US President Barack Obama.

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沈痛悼念金正日同志
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