TIMBÍO, Colombia – In the last few years, coffee yields have plummeted here and in many of Latin America’s other premier coffee regions. Rising temperatures and more intense and unpredictable rains are to blame, phenomena that many scientists link partly to global warming. 過去幾年間，哥倫比亞丁比奧地區與拉丁美洲許多其他頂級咖啡產區，咖啡豆產量銳減。氣溫升高、降雨更大也更變化無常是主因。許多科學家認為，這種現象多少與全球暖化有關。

Yet as stockpiles of some of the best coffee beans shrink, global demand is soaring as the rising middle classes of emerging economies like Brazil, India and China develop the coffee habit. Coffee plants require the right mix of temperature, rainfall and spells of dryness for beans to ripen properly and maintain their taste. Coffee pests thrive in the warmer, wetter weather.
部分頂級咖啡豆存量減少的同時，全球對咖啡的需求卻在激增，因為巴西、印度、中國等新興經濟體中產階級崛起，並養成了喝咖啡的習慣。種植優質咖啡豆，使其得以順利成熟並保有特定風味的必要條件是，合宜的氣溫、降雨與乾燥期缺一不可。咖啡病蟲害最常出現在比較溫暖潮濕的氣候。

Most of the small landowners in Colombia’s lush mountainous Cauca region have thrived for decades by supplying shade-grown, rainforest-friendly Arabica coffee for top brands like Nespresso and Green Mountain. The shortage of the Arabica beans is being felt in New York and Paris , as customers blink at escalating prices. Purveyors fear that Colombia’s Arabica supply may not rebound.
哥倫比亞的可卡區地形多山且草木繁茂。數十年來，當地的小地主大多因為在陰涼處種植對雨林友善的阿拉比卡咖啡豆，並把豆子賣給Nespresso與綠山等頂級咖啡品牌而致富。在紐約與巴黎，客戶因價格持續上升而心驚膽跳，已經感受到阿拉比卡咖啡豆短缺的壓力。供應商擔心，哥倫比亞的阿拉比卡咖啡豆供應量可能不會回升。

In 2006, Colombia produced more than 12 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee, and set a goal of 17 million for 2014. Last year the yield was 9 million bags. Major brands have increased the retail prices of many grinds by 25 percent or more.
2006年，哥倫比亞共計生產逾1200萬袋每袋60公斤的咖啡豆，並為2014年設定1700萬袋的生產目標。去年，哥倫比亞的產量只有900萬袋。各主要品牌已將多款研磨咖啡的零售價格至少提高了25%。

Profits of coffee chains like Starbucks and Green Mountain have eroded. Coffee futures of Arabica have risen more than 85 percent since June, to $2.95 per half a kilogram, partly over concerns about supply, weather and future quality, said George Kopp, an analyst at the International Futures Group in Chicago.
影響所及，包括星巴克、綠山在內的知名咖啡連鎖集團利潤已經減少。芝加哥國際期貨集團分析師柯普表示，去年六月至今，阿拉比卡咖啡豆的期貨價格上漲逾85%，達到每半公斤2.95美元，業界對供應量、氣候與未來的品質感到憂心是部分原因。

“Coffee production is under threat from global warming, and the outlook for Arabica in particular is not good,” said Peter Baker, a coffee specialist with CABI, a research group in Britain that focuses on agriculture and the environment, noting that climate changes have harmed crops across Central and South America.
倫敦CABI研究集團專門研究農業與環境問題，集團咖啡專家貝克說：「全球暖化已經對咖啡生產構成威脅，阿拉比卡咖啡豆前景尤其堪憂。」他又說，氣候變遷已使中南美洲咖啡豆收成全面受到影響。

He has rattled trade forums by warning of the possibility of “peak coffee,” meaning that, like oil supplies, coffee supplies might be headed for an inexorable decline unless growers expand production globally. Arabica and Robusta coffee account for virtually all consumption. With its more delicate taste and lower caffeine content, Arabica is more popular and more expensive, though more sensitive to weather. Robusta production dominates in Asia and Africa.
貝克警告道，咖啡產量可能已達於「頂峰」，就和石油供應一樣，除非全球各地的咖啡農擴大生產，咖啡供應量可能開始走下坡而不再回頭。這番話使各地的咖啡貿易論壇惶惶不安。實際上，阿拉比卡與羅巴斯塔咖啡豆是消費的主力。阿拉比卡雖然對氣候比較敏感，卻因味道比較淡雅，咖啡因含量比較低而更受消費者喜愛，價格也比較高。羅巴斯塔咖啡豆是亞洲與非洲的主要出產品種。

Colombia is the No. 2 Arabica exporter after Brazil, where production is centered on larger, more mechanized farms and continues to grow. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation says high fertilizer prices have also dented yields. But it agrees with the International Coffee Organization that “climatic variability is the main factor responsible for changes in coffee yields all over the world.”
哥倫比亞是全球第二大阿拉比卡咖啡豆出口國，僅次於巴西。巴西咖啡豆生產主要集中於規模較大，也較機械化的農場，產量還在成長。哥倫比亞咖啡農聯合會表示，肥料價格居高不下也影響咖啡豆產量。不過聯合會同意國際咖啡組織的看法，認為「氣候變遷是全球各地咖啡豆產量改變的主因」。

Average temperatures in coffee regions have risen nearly one degree in 30 years, and in some mountain areas double that, says Cenicafe, the Colombian coffee research center. Rain in this area was more than 25 percent above average in the last few years.
哥倫比亞咖啡研究中心Cenicafe指出，30年來咖啡產區平均氣溫上升將近攝氏一度，部分山區更達兩倍。這個地區這幾年降雨量比平均值高出25%以上。

At the higher temperatures, the plants’ buds abort or their fruit ripens too quickly. Heat also brings coffee rust, a devastating fungus. The heavy rains damage the Arabica blossoms, and the two-week dry spells that prompt the plant to produce beans occur less often, farmers say. “Half a degree can make a big difference ,” said Néstor Riaño, a specialist in agroclimatology for Cenicafé.
氣溫升高，咖啡樹不是芽無法正常發育，就是果實成熟太快。高溫還會使具毀滅性的咖啡鐵鏽真菌滋生。雨太多太大會打壞阿拉比卡的花。農民表示，可促使咖啡樹結豆的兩個星期乾燥期出現次數也已減少。Cenicafe農業氣候專家黎安紐說：「氣溫提高攝氏0.5度就會產生極大的影響。」

Researchers at Cenicafe are hard at work on the problem.
Cenicafe的研究人員正在苦思對策。

Agronomists are teaching the farmers how to control the pests that arrived with the change in the weather. Geneticists are breeding plants that are more disease-resistant or that can withstand torrential rains or more heat.
農學專家已開始指導農民如何控制隨氣候變化而至的病蟲害。基因專家則在培育更能抵抗病蟲害、暴雨和高溫的新品種咖啡樹。

The Coffee Growers Federation has advised farmers to switch to a new , hardier Arabica strain that was developed at Cenicafe.
哥倫比亞咖啡農聯合會建議農民改種Cenicafe培育的另一種更具抵抗力的阿拉比卡咖啡豆。

Farmers have resisted because they can ill afford to forgo income as they wait for new plants to mature. They have also been wary that a switch could affect flavor.
農民不願接受，因為難以承受等待新種咖啡樹結果期間少掉的收入。他們還擔心新品種味道不同。

Taste, quality and supply are delicate issues for an industry whose aficionados are notoriously picky.
咖啡的愛好者是挑剔出了名的，對這個產業而言，風味、品質與供應量是極為敏感的問題。

The coffee federation is creating a “product origin” certification program, similar to the one that protects Italy’s Parmesan cheese. That way importers will not be tempted to substitute coffee beans from Brazil or Indonesia.
哥倫比亞咖啡農聯合會正在建立「產品原產地」證明制度，性質類似保護義大利帕瑪森起士的認證計畫。如此一來，進口商就不會以來自巴西或印尼的咖啡豆瓜代。

At the Garzón farm in Colombia’s Cauca region, yields are down 70 percent from five years ago. The coffee rust fungus has killed entire fields. Now, the family is planting the new, hardier Arabica variant. Said Luis Garzón, 80: “We learned our lesson.”
在可卡區的賈松農場，咖啡豆產量比五年前少了70%。咖啡鐵鏽真菌毀掉了一片片的咖啡田。現在，這戶農家已經開始改種抵抗力更強的新品種阿拉比卡咖啡樹。80歲的老農賈松說：「我們從經驗中記取教訓。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/science/earth/10coffee.html 

Slideshow: Climate Change and Coffee
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/03/10/science/earth/20110310-coffee.html 

2011-03-29/聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯 原文請見紐時週報七版下