HANOI – Canon is no longer building or expanding factories in China, but the company is doubling its work force at a printer factory outside Hanoi to 8,000.
佳能不再在中國建廠或擴廠，而要把河內市郊一家印表機工廠的勞動力倍增成8千人。

Nearby, Nissan is expanding a vehicle engineering center. Hanesbrands, the underwear company based in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, is setting up two new factories here, as is the Texhong Textile Group from Shanghai.
不遠處，日產正在擴建一座汽車工程中心。總部在美國北卡羅來納州溫斯頓塞冷的漢佰內衣廠，則在河內蓋兩座新廠。上海來的天虹紡織集團也跟進。

China remains the most popular destination for foreign industrial investment in the world, attracting almost $83 billion last year. But a growing number of multinational corporations are pursuing a strategy that companies and analysts call “China plus one,” establishing or expanding Asian bases outside China, particularly in Vietnam.
中國仍是最受全球外資青睞的地區，去年吸引近830億美元外資。但越來越多跨國企業正尋求業界與分析師口中「中國加一」策略，成立或擴增中國以外的亞洲據點，尤其是越南。

A long list of concerns about China is feeding the trend: inflation, shortages of workers and energy, a strengthening currency, changing government policies, even the possibility of widespread civil unrest someday. But most important, wages in China are rising close to 25 percent a year in many industries, in dollar terms, and China is no longer such a bargain.
中國一長串令人擔心的問題助長這趨勢：通貨膨脹、勞工與能源短缺、人民幣走強、政府政策一變再變，甚至有一天可能社會動盪。但最重要的是中國許多行業的薪資一年來大漲，以美元計算，漲幅逼近25% ，孤注一擲投資中國不再那麼划算了。

Even as companies seek other places to make their goods, they are stalked by overheated economies: in Vietnam, for example, inflation was 25.2 percent in May.
這些公司即使有意轉移陣地製造商品，經濟過熱問題仍如影隨形。以越南為例，5月通膨率達25.2%。

More than corporate profit margins are at stake. When the cost of making goods in Asia rises, consumers worldwide inevitably feel pain.
不單是企業獲利率面臨風險，亞洲製造成本上揚，全世界消費者都難免感到痛苦。

Companies are using the China-plus-one strategy to mitigate the risks of overdependence on factories in one country.
企業於是以「中國加一」策略，減輕過度依賴在單一國家設廠的風險。

Multinational corporations are “thinking about all the world and keeping a balance” between China and other countries, said Edward Kang, the chief executive of Ever-Glory International, a sportswear manufacturer in Nanjing, China. Ever-Glory, which sells to Wal-Mart and Kohl’s, is building a factory in Vietnam.
中國南京運動服飾製造商「江蘇華瑞國際集團」總裁康宜華說，跨國企業「放眼全球，在中國與其他國家之間保持平衡」。客戶包括沃爾瑪百貨的華瑞集團正在越南建廠。

Companies remaining in China are desperately seeking to control costs.
留在中國的企業則極力控制成本。

“We will maintain our capacity in China, but we will make it more automatic and reduce the number of employees,” said Laurence Shu, the chief financial officer of Shanghai-based Texhong, one of the world’s largest makers of cotton and spandex fabric.
上海天虹紡織財務總監舒華東表示：「本公司會維持現有的中國產能，但是會提高自動化，裁減人力。」天虹是全球前幾大棉布和彈性纖維製造商之一。

To limit labor costs, Hanesbrands is building a largely automated factory in Nanjing. But the company is also building a factory in Vietnam, in addition to a factory it bought here, and two more in Thailand.
為了減少人力成本，漢佰正在南京設一座大量自動化工廠，漢佰已在河內買一座工廠，目前正在加蓋一廠，並在泰國再蓋兩座廠。

Gerald Evans, the president for global supply chain at Hanesbrands, said that compared with China, “we found more ready availability of both land and labor in both Vietnam and Thailand.” Hanesbrands will be shifting some manufacturing from Mexico and Central America to Asia.
漢佰全球供應鏈總裁傑若德•伊凡斯說，與中國相較，「我們發現，越南和泰國現有的土地與勞力更充裕」。漢佰將把墨西哥與中美洲一些生產線轉到亞洲。

In China, where rural villages are running low on able-bodied young workers to send to factories, wages are rising more than 10 percent a year for many assembly-line workers. And pay is rising even faster for skilled workers, like machinery repair technicians.
中國鄉村地區已經沒有多少能進工廠工作的青壯人口，許多裝配線工人薪資一年來漲一成多，機械維修等熟練工薪資漲更快。

In coastal provinces with ready access to ports, even unskilled workers now earn $120 a month for a 40-hour workweek, and often considerably more; wages in inland provinces, where transport is costlier, are somewhat lower but also rising fast. While Chinese wages are still less than $1 an hour, factory workers in Vietnam earn as little as $50 a month for a 48-hour workweek, including Saturdays.
在沿海省分港口城市，即便是非熟練工，現在每周工作40小時，一個月也可賺120美元，而且實際賺的往往多更多。在運輸費用貴得多的內地，薪資水準低了些，但也漲很快。中國勞工時薪還不到1美元，但越南工廠作業員每周連同周六總共工作48小時，月薪才50美元。

Foreign direct investment in China has grown by a third over the last three years. By contrast, foreign direct investment has more than doubled in this period in the Philippines, quintupled in India and soared more than eightfold in Vietnam. Foreign investment in Vietnam reached nearly $18 billion last year.
3年來，外商對中國的直接投資成長三分之一。相形之下，同期外商對菲律賓直接投資額增加1倍有餘，印度5倍，越南更超過8倍。越南去年外商投資額幾達180億美元。

A popular saying among Western investors is that Vietnam is the next China. Cambodia, with even lower wages attracting garment manufacturers, is called the next Vietnam.
西方投資人常說，越南是下一個中國。工資更低而頗受成衣商青睞的柬埔寨，則被稱為下一個越南。

But Vietnam has only 1/16th of China’s population and Cambodia has one-fifth of Vietnam’s. As foreign investors leap into each new country, they drive up the cost of workers and goods.
不過，越南人口僅及中國的十六分之一，柬埔寨則是越南的五分之一。外資躍進各新興國家，帶動勞動與貨物成本上揚。

In addition to the size of the labor force, infrastructure is also likely to slow down how fast China plus one can expand. Most countries in Asia, including Vietnam, have not improved transportation links as quickly as China. Lengthy traffic jams slow down shipments and drive up costs.
除了勞動力規模，基礎建設也可能使「中國加一」擴展速度變慢。亞洲大多數國家，包括越南，交通運輸改善速度趕不上中國。塞車塞半天會延誤運貨，增加成本。

India is expected to have more people than China within two decades. But many companies are leery of poor roads and congested ports in India.
印度預料20年內人口會超越中國，但很多外商對印度崎嶇不平的道路與壅塞的港口不抱太大希望。

And even in India, demand for workers with industrial skills or the ability to speak English outstrips the supply – and their wages have been rising by 10 to 20 percent a year.
再者，即便擁有工業技術或能說英語的勞工在印度供不應求，這類勞工的工資一年來也漲了一兩成。

That has led to worries about India’s long-term competitiveness, even for those investing heavily there, like Ford Motor, which is planning to spend $500 million on factory expansion.
這不免令人擔憂印度長期競爭力，連在當地重金投資的企業像福特汽車也憂心，福特正計畫斥資5億美元擴廠。

“I keep saying to our people, ‘How long will it be until we’re priced out of the market?’ ” said John Parker, Ford’s executive vice president for Asia, Pacific and Africa. “The impact of that some day is you’re no longer low-cost.”
「我一再提醒員工：『市場還能接受我們的價格多久？』福特亞太及非洲地區執行副總裁約翰•帕克說：「影響所及，總有一天，你再也無法壓低成本。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/business/worldbusiness/18invest.html
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/17/business/inflate.php

2008-07-01/聯合報/G4版/UNITED DAILY NEWS 夏嘉玲 原文請見7月1日紐時周報五版右上