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臺灣問題攸關國運不可輕率急進 -- 喬良
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作者:喬良來源:中美印象20200504

 

中國的復興雖未必會被此一戰打斷,但肯定會讓我們接下去的路步履維艱。這可不是說一句大不了現代化晚實現幾年那麽簡單。臺灣問題並非我復興大業的全部內容,甚至連主要內容都談不上。因為復興大業的主要內涵是十四億人的幸福生活,收回臺灣就可以滿足這一大目標?因此,對中國人來說,沒有比實現民族復興更大的事業!一切都必須給這一大業讓路,包括臺灣問題的解決。

 

【編者按:昨天,《中美印象》轉發了喬良將軍發表在《紫荊》2020年第5期的訪談《我們不應該跟著美國的節奏跳舞》。之後,有一位讀者提出商榷(附在喬良將軍訪談之後)。今天喬良將軍對這一商榷做了回覆。喬良將軍對如何、怎樣與何時解決台海問題的論述可能是最近一段時間以來我們所看到的對這一重大問題最為精彩和精闢的分析與解讀。我們歡迎讀者繼續參與對這一重大命題的討論。來稿請寄uscnpm2019@gmail.com。】

 

隨著特朗普批准《臺北法案》,美國政府在臺灣問題上,又給中國擰緊了一道鏍扣,使臺灣下一步的走向,再次成了國人熱議的話題,這種熱議做為民意,不可能不影響到決策。但任何一項決策,都不是只根據輿情做出的,而是必須先考慮約束條件。決策者的決心或信心,取決於對如何打破約束條件的考慮,而不僅僅是迎合民意。

 

從網路輿論看,不少國人的思維方式,還是習慣或喜歡籠而統之甚至大而華之看問題、談問題。如對美與中國開打貿易戰,一些人上來就是打的一拳開,擋的百拳來""不打則已,打就打疼"。但怎麽打,用什麽打,打的結果是什麽?卻很少有人觸及。對臺灣問題也如是,張口就是不入虎穴,焉得虎子""眼下不統,更待何時"?但你問他今夕何夕?如何深入虎穴得虎子?就語焉不詳了。這種不考慮自身或外部約束條件,只憑決心或信心(更多的是頭腦發熱)就拍腦袋做決策的主張,名曰愛國,實為害國。

 

什麽是對決策的約束條件?讓我們以臺灣問題為例來探討一下:

 

其一,做為中國軍人,我想讓世界知道,經過20多年厲兵秣馬,我們已做好了隨時武力解決臺灣問題的準備,這一點,請世界包括美國不必懷疑。但為什麽還不動手?因為要計算成本和收益,所以要選擇時機。

 

不可否認,大疫之下,美國手忙腳亂,軍力收縮,的確貌似出現了我武力解決臺灣問題的短暫窗口期,但除非此後的疫情發展使美國就此倒地不起,否則,僅僅抓住一個戰術窗口,還不足以解決我們日後將面臨的戰略困境。所以,如何判斷時機,選擇時機,就必須通觀全局。

 

首先是要弄清楚,中國當下處於什麽時刻,什麽階段?一句話:千年復興,機遇難得,將強未強,將成未成之際。雖已是全球製造業第一大國,且是唯一全要素生產國,但同時又是自身資源不足以支撐製造業需求,自身市場亦不能完全消化製造業産品的國家。這時,外部的約束條件,將在很大程度上制約中國的興起。

 

何況全球經濟包括中國經濟,都還處在美元體系之下,雖然中國是全球外匯儲備第一,高達三萬多億外儲,但如果你注意到了今年大疫爆發,美國為擺脫困境,一次就超發美元6萬億,就不難明白,我們與美國的不同,表現在什麽地方。

 

當中國經濟和人民幣還未擺脫美元約束的情況下,或全球經濟與金融還處在美元體系中時,中國的任何決策(無論是政治的,經濟的還是軍事的),都不能不考慮這一首要外部約束。這並非怕不怕美國的問題,而是要考慮它對我的每一決策的傷害方式和傷害程度的問題,只有掂量清楚這兩點,才會懂得如何趨利避害,或如何兩害相權取其輕,確保中國自身利益最大化。

 

其次,既然眼下是中國千年復興,將成未成之際,收復臺灣,是否是當務之急?如眼下不收臺灣,中國復興就無法繼續,甚至前功盡棄,那當然就只能果斷出手,畢全功於一役,志在必得。但如眼下收台,可能欲速不達,反被其累呢?是否還要橫下心來,不計得失,非收不可?

 

因為從島內情勢看,文統無望,只能武統,但臺灣問題並非陸台兩家的內部事務,美國明擺著要插手其間且也有此實力。雖然我們判斷美基本不會直接武力干預我攻台,但間接干預呢,不是有可能,也不是很大可能,而是肯定會。

 

按美軍設想,一旦發生台海之戰,美軍應不是直接對華開戰,而是聯合西方國家封鎖制裁中國,特別是用其海空優勢,掐斷中國海上生命線,使中國製造業所需資源無法輸入,所產商品無法輸出,同時通過紐約倫敦兩大金融中心,掐斷中國的資本鏈,必須看到,眼下雖遭大疫,加上金融危機在即,美國實力大減,但傾其全力走出上述步驟,還是做得到的。

 

邏輯推演到這一步,收台與復興的輕與重,就不難掂量出來了。中國的復興雖未必會被此一戰打斷,但肯定會讓我們接下去的路步履維艱。這可不是說一句大不了現代化晚實現幾年那麽簡單。臺灣問題並非我復興大業的全部內容,甚至連主要內容都談不上。因為復興大業的主要內涵是十四億人的幸福生活,收回臺灣就可以滿足這一大目標?因此,對中國人來說,沒有比實現民族復興更大的事業!一切都必須給這一大業讓路,包括臺灣問題的解決。

 

我不止一次說過,臺灣問題,不管我們怎麽強調它屬於中國內政,但本質上仍是中美問題。如果沒有美國的深度介入,台獨就是個偽命題。但有了美國的背後撐腰,"台獨"就成了威脅中國主權完整的真問題。

 

因此,解決臺灣問題的關鍵不在於如何解決台獨勢力,而在於要先解決中美實力對比。也就是說,在中美掰手腕未分勝負之前,臺灣問題不可能徹底解決。硬著頭皮解決,也只能做成一鍋夾生飯,讓臺灣成為我們背上的沈重包袱。因為台海一旦開戰,資金全部撤空,企業全都關門,人員全都失業的孤島,將讓我們注多少資金去重振其經濟,投多少人力去管理其社會?二千多萬不認同甚至敵視你的人口,用什麽方式管?難道一直軍管下去不成?這是多大的代價,多高的成本?這代價和成本難道不拖累甚至不拖垮復興大業?

 

在復興之路上,中國是儘量輕裝前進好,還是在外有美西壓力,內有臺灣重負下前進好?而一旦完成復興大業,回頭解決臺灣問題不是更易如反掌麽?那些一味主張現在就動手的人,真的連這筆賬也算不過來?

 

其三,有人會問,你說機會不對,在不正確的時間做正確的事也是錯誤的,那麽,什麽時間做這件事才是正確的?我前面說了:在中美角力分出高下之時。有人等不及,說那得等到猴年馬月?我說,等到猴年馬月也得等,但決不是乾等,乾等永遠等不來這一天。

 

那麽,要怎麽等?要用美國擔心什麽你就幹什麽的方式等,如:要毫不猶豫地繼續擴大中國的全要素製造業優勢;要堅定推進人民幣國際化以抵銷美元大量注水對中國財富的稀釋和洗劫;要以支援華為為代表的中國新興產業為抓手,把中國優先打造成數位化社會;要通過軍工産業的長尾鏈效應,既拉動中國經濟,又加快軍力提升;要找到最捷徑最有效的境外資源獲取方式,最大限度地降低中國的資源瓶頸一一還有很多,不一一窮舉,一言蔽之,就是要不斷提高和增強中國掰手腕的力度,也最大程度上壓縮外部約束中國崛起的因素,讓見高下的那一天提早到來,那時,沒有了(或大大降低)美國因素,收復臺灣,如探囊取物,遇佛殺佛,見僧殺僧,試看誰敢做絆腳石!?

 

以上問題,都不是僅僅靠做好單一軍事鬥爭準備就可以迎刃而解的,需要起碼做好政治的經濟的鬥爭準備,才可高懸戰旗。對此,顯然美國的決策者們一直看得很清楚,而我們中有些人則未必清楚。每逢台海風吹草動,必義憤群起,與論洶洶,造成決策壓力,完全不知這正中美國人下懷。因為這正是美國人想要的效果,也是美國人想讓臺灣問題成為問題的原因。有了這個抓手,美國政府就可以一次次設計各種涉台話題,給我們挖坑,而我們也不假思索,一次次往裏跳。這結果對誰有利,還用說嗎?

 

那我們怎麽辦?繼續讓美國挖坑我們來跳?不,現在是結束這種遊戲的時候了。中國只需要用一次實際行動(什麽行動,可以讓美國及臺灣當局去猜),向臺灣民眾也向世界做一次鄭重宣示:臺灣在中國的"大炮"射程之內,這就是最後的真理,台獨之心必須死掉。這就夠了,其他廢話少說。剩下要解決的,就是中國與美國的問題了。我們必須學會把美國給我們製造的臺灣話題,用同樣製造話題的方式懟回去,而不再隨美國人給定的節奏起舞(怎麽做到,還是留給美國去猜想)。這樣,我們才能從美國人強加給中國的解決臺灣問題的約束條件下擺脫出來。

 

本來,單單解決臺灣問題並不難,難的就是如何解決那些約束條件。如果我們的思路,能從這些"約束條件的約束下跳出來,即使這些約束條件還在,但我們卻不再被其約束,形勢就會發生有利於我方的轉變,主動權就會王車易位,逐漸轉向中國一邊。這種思路,才應是我們決策的依據和出發點。

 

在這一攸關國運的嚴肅課題面前,一切只憑熱情或熱血就下斷言的說辭,都是輕率甚至輕浮的。中國的答卷上,只能有冷峻的,清醒的,不容置疑的實力,沒有其他。



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夜過墳場吹口哨!
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這篇文章用美國俗話來說,叫做 wishful thinkng,用中國俗話來說,叫做「夜過墳場吹口哨!」

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China reins in nationalists clamoring for an invasion of Taiwan -- LA Times
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David Pierson, Alice Su, Shashank Bengali, LA Times, 06/09/20

 

Armored personnel carriers roll down a city street. A train station sits half-destroyed. Residents cower behind curtains, a man throws up his arms up defeat. Soldiers press in, forcing vanquished Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to carry a Chinese flag.

 

Such are the fantasies of China’s militant nationalists, portrayed in a series of art projects, anime cartoons and model dioramas that have been shared online, all depicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway territory.

 

“This is a great era of the Chinese people. No force can look down on us anymore,” wrote a social media user with a Chinese navy avatar who posted one of the images. “The motherland must be unified, and it inevitably will be unified.”

 

The hawkish views don’t represent the majority opinion in China, but they were amplified by the state this year after the reelection and inauguration of Tsai, a staunch opponent of unification with the mainland. They coincide with China's growing military strength and its provocative actions to expand its influence in the South China Sea.

 

China’s communist rulers often stoke nationalism to burnish their legitimacy, especially when facing domestic challenges such as the mass unemployment and economic slowdown that have hit the country as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assertiveness on the world stage is an effective distraction from problems at home.

 

In the last few months, social media posts have cheered China on as it has flown fighter jets into Taiwanese airspace, brawled with Indian soldiers along the remote Himalayan border and approved a national security law in Hong Kong that in effect eliminates the territory’s autonomy.

 

But the nationalistic chest-thumping can also backfire, not the least when it creates ambitious expectations of the nation’s modernizing military, which has risen to become one of the most powerful in the world (though the U.S. still outspends China on defense at a ratio of 4 to 1).

 

Contrary to the views of those online glorifying an invasion of Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army would not be assured victory.

 

Taiwan’s mountainous terrain and narrow beaches make the island a daunting target for any invasion force — let alone one like the PLA, which hasn’t been tested in a war since it struggled against Vietnam in 1979.

 

The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties.

 

“A Taiwan conflict would be horrendous,” said Drew Thompson, a former U.S. Defense Department official and a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “It would not be quick and easy, but a disaster.”

 

Beijing needs to regularly encourage nationalism, having long abandoned communism as an ideology in the face of economic growth and a widening wealth gap. Whether nationalistic rhetoric will turn into state action, however, is uncertain.

 

As a top PLA general warned at a forum in Beijing last week that the Chinese military would "smash" any "separatist plots" in Taiwan, the nation’s main broadcaster, CCTV, ran a 10-part series about Mao Zedong’s 1958 shelling of the Taiwanese islands of Matsu and Kinmen.

 

Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty. In a study released in March, researchers at the University of Hong Kong found people in China viewed reducing income disparity, expanding social welfare and investing in education as more important than military spending, which has nearly doubled since 2012 to $180 billion.

 

The heavy financial burden of war — not to mention the cost to China’s shaky international standing and its increasingly strained relations with Washington — would challenge the country’s ability to overcome its worst downturn in decades.

 

In apparent recognition of those many drawbacks, China has toned down calls by nationalists to strike Taiwan while the United States, which many presume would come to the island’s defense, is hobbled by the pandemic and social strife.

 

In the last month, retired military leaders have emerged with commentaries calling for calm and arguing conflict would derail China’s development as a world power.

 

An article published in a magazine for senior party leaders took inspiration from the 17th century Qing dynasty, which used strategic patience and economic coercion to capture the remaining remnants of the Ming dynasty who had fled to the island now known as Taiwan.

One of the most influential and surprising voices to counter the war mongering was that of former air force Gen. Qiao Liang, a noted hawk.

 

“The Taiwan problem cannot be solved with rashness and radicalism,” Liang wrote on Weibo, a social media platform.

 

Liang is coauthor of the book, “Unrestricted Warfare: China's Master Plan to Destroy America,” which Stephen K. Bannon, President Trump’s former chief advisor, credits for inspiring his hawkish views on China.

 

The former general’s addition to the list of voices tempering nationalism highlights the many levers the Chinese government employs to manipulate public opinion — and how important it is to prevent war cries from getting carried away, experts say.

 

“The party has substantial leeway to shape public opinion and shut down expressions of nationalism when they go too far for comfort, whether online or in the streets,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, a China specialist and associate professor of government at Cornell University.

 

“In China, the tail does not usually wag the dog when it comes to significant policy decisions, such as the national security law in Hong Kong or whether to use force across the Taiwan Strait. But popular nationalism often provides the spark for international confrontation.”

 

That was the case last year when a tweet by basketball executive Daryl Morey in support of pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong sparked a ferocious public backlash in China. The government ordered a blackout of games that threatened a $5-billion business relationship with the National Basketball Assn.

 

But when nationalistic protesters tried to protest at an NBA game in Shenzhen, they were repressed by police, their Chinese flags confiscated — by turning online rhetoric into organized action, they had gone too far.

 

In another example, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador in April to protest an article popular among nationalists suggesting the Central Asian country belonged to China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry had to affirm the article did not represent Beijing’s position.

 

Few things, however, inspire zealous national pride more than China’s modernizing military.

 

The PLA’s buildup has included aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines and a more offensive-oriented air force, including upgraded longer-range fighter planes and strategic bombers equipped with cruise missiles, security analysts said.

 

The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy.

 

War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations.

 

“The Chinese military has progressed very quickly — much more quickly than most had anticipated,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “It is closing the gap, and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.”

 

Still, questions persists about how effective the PLA would be in combat, and not just because it lacks experience.

 

Experts say the army, navy and other branches don’t communicate well with one another. And PLA officers are said to be overseen by political officers in the Chinese Communist Party who must approve operational decisions, limiting the army’s power.

 

“It could also mean that tactical and strategic decisions are made for political rather than military reasons,” Storey said. “I’m sure the Communist Party would regard political control of the PLA to be of paramount importance.”

 

Taiwan, on the other hand, has adopted a so-called asymmetric strategy designed to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the PLA with its much smaller military. That centers on deploying defenses such as sea mines and anti-ship cruise missiles.

 

If China's growing military might is meant to intimidate Taiwan into unification someday, its online nationalists have succeeded in doing the opposite, according to social media banter in the democratic enclave.

 

While the invasion images have gone viral in Taiwan, they've been subjected to ridicule, including being widely described euphemistically as a Chinese form of “self-comfort.”

 

Su reported from Shanghai and Pierson and Bengali from Singapore.

 

https://us.yahoo.com/news/china-reins-nationalists-clamoring-invasion-041547567.html



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兵者,國之大事。
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胡卜凱

孫子說:「兵者,國之大事;死生之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。」

 

唐詩有句:「一將功成萬骨枯。」;又云:「可憐無定河邊骨,猶是深閨夢裡人。」

 

毛澤東還是那位中共領導曾說:「中國人不打中國人。」

 

簡單的說:紙上談兵或嘴頭論戰很容易,敲敲鍵盤或噴噴口水就拍手了事。但真正的戰爭是要死人的。人死不能復生!凡是不會走上戰場或不願意走上戰場的人,恐怕不適合或沒有資格玩紙上談兵或嘴頭論戰的遊戲。

 

台灣的統派,往往因為受不了此地的「政治氛圍」,而把「台灣問題」看得跟天一樣大。我曾說過,除了 10 月 1 日之前以及新年元旦之前的一段日子外,「台灣問題」大概排不上中共政治局常會的議程。

 

我希望島內和中國的「武統派」和「急統派」能仔細的、深刻的讀讀喬良將軍的大作。這篇文章是從大局著想的謀國之論。

 



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