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安啦,不會有釣魚台之戰 - L. Sieg
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Japan, China conflict unlikely despite row

 

Linda Sieg, Reuters, 09/25/12

 

TOKYO -- Hawkish Chinese commentators have urged Beijing to prepare for military conflict with Japan as tensions mount over disputed islands in the East China Sea, but most experts say chances the Asian rivals will decide to go to war are slim.

 

A bigger risk is the possibility that an unintended maritime clash results in deaths and boosts pressure for retaliation, but even then Tokyo and Beijing are expected to seek to manage the row before it becomes a full-blown military confrontation.

 

“That's the real risk -- a maritime incident leading to a loss of life. If a Japanese or Chinese were killed, there would be a huge outpouring of nationalist sentiment,” said Linda Jakobson, director of the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.

 

“But I still cannot seriously imagine it would lead to an attack on the other country. I do think rational minds would prevail,” she said, adding economic retaliation was more likely.

 

A feud over the lonely islets in the East China Sea flared this month after Japan's government bought three of the islands from a private owner, triggering violent protests in China and threatening business between Asia's two biggest economies.

 

Adding to the tensions, China sent more than 10 government patrol vessels to waters near the islands, known as the Diaoyu in China and the Senkaku in Japan, while Japan beefed up its Coast Guard patrols. Chinese media said 1,000 fishing boats have set sail for the area, although none has been sighted close by.

 

Despite the diplomatic standoff and rising nationalist sentiment in China especially, experts agree neither Beijing nor Tokyo would intentionally escalate to a military confrontation what is already the worst crisis in bilateral ties in decades.

 

US Pressure

 

“The chances of a military conflict are very, very slim because neither side wants to go down that path,” said former People's Liberation Army officer, Xu Guangyu, now a senior consultant at a government-run think tank in Beijing.

 

Pressure from the United States, which repeated last week that the disputed isles were covered by a 1960 treaty obliging Washington to come to Japan's aid if it were attacked, is also working to restrain both sides, security experts said.

 

“I very seriously do not think any of the involved parties -- Japan, China and including the United States because of its defense treaty (with Japan) -- want to see a military conflict over this dispute,” said the Lowy Institute's Jakobson.

 

“They don't want to risk it, they don't seek it and they do not intend to let it happen.”

 

Still, the possibility of a clash at sea remains.

 

While the presence of the Chinese surveillance ships -- none of which is a naval vessel -- and Japan Coast Guard ships in the area might appear to set the stage for trouble, military experts said each side would try to steer clear of the other.

 

“The bad news is that China sent ships to the area. The good news is that they are official ships controlled by the government,” said Narushige Michishita at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

 

“This is good news because they are not likely to engage in aggressive action because that would really exacerbate the situation and turn it into a major crisis,” said Michishita.

 

The Chinese ships, he said, had another mission besides asserting China's claims to the islands and nearby waters.

 

“My guess is that some (Chinese) official patrol boats are there to watch out for fishing boats ... to stop them from making problems,” Michishita said.

 

Fishing Boats Wild Card

 

Military specialists say the Chinese patrol vessels are well disciplined as are the Japan Coast Guard ships, while the two sides have grown accustomed to communicating.

 

“Both sides are ready, but both sides are very well under control,” said a former senior Japanese military official.

 

What worries observers most is the risk that a boat carrying Chinese fishermen slips through or activists try to land, sparking clashes with Japan's Coast Guard that result in deaths -- news of which would spread like wildfire on the Internet.

 

In 1996, a Hong Kong activist drowned in the nearby waters.

 

Diplomatic and economic relations chilled sharply in 2010 after Japan arrested a Chinese trawler captain whose boat collided with a Japan Coast Guard vessel. This time, tensions are already high and China is contending with a tricky once-in-a-decade leadership change while Japan's ruling party faces a probable drubbing in an election expected in months.

 

“Two rational governments of major countries would not intentionally decide to enter into a major war with each other over a few uninhabited rocks,” said Denny Roy, an Asia security expert at the East-West Center in Hawaii.

 

“But unfortunately, you can arrive at war in ways other than that -- through unintended escalation, in which both countries start out at a much lower level, but each of them think that they must respond to perceived provocation by the other side, both very strongly pushed into it by domestic pressure. That seems to be where we are now and it is difficult to see how countries can get out of that negative spiral.”

 

Others, however, were more confident that an unplanned clash could be kept from escalating into military conflict.

 

“That's not really a major possibility, because there are still broad channels of communication between the two sides, and they would help prevent that happening. Both sides could still talk to each other,” said former senior PLA officer Xu.

 

“Even before anything happened, you would also have the U.N Secretary General and others stepping in to ensure that the situation does not get out of control.”

 

http://chinapost.com.tw/commentary/reuters/2012/09/25/355465/Japan-China.htm



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保釣萬一打輸日本怎麼辦﹖ ---- 張系國
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轉貼自:張系國的快活林, 09/26/12

 

釣魚台之爭越來越像玩真的,大陸和日本的軍艦都進入附近海域。老保釣們個個摩拳擦掌,恨不得雙方動武,好一舉收復釣魚台。

 

收復釣魚台﹖恕我直言,保釣萬一打輸日本怎麼辦﹖

 

其實這非常有可能。收復釣魚台主要靠海軍。二戰後日本雖然理論上無法建軍,但是巧立名目,所謂的海上自衛隊其實就是海軍,甚至軍艦的類別都故意改名以遮耳目。例如海上自衛隊有兩艘航空母艦,至少有一艘輕巡洋艦,但是從字面上完全看不出來。我的粗淺了解是日本海上自衛隊的戰鬥力相當堅強。而且日本的帝國艦隊又有令他們值得自傲的傳統。要和這樣訓練有素、戰力堅強、自豪傳統的日本海軍作戰,必須非常小心從事。

 

何況中國海軍從清朝起就是大規模貪污的第一對象,理由很簡單,貪污一支步槍所 得有限,貪污一艘價值上億的軍艦就從此吃用不盡﹗所以北洋海軍會變成慈僖太后 的頤和園裡的石船。台灣海軍的尹清楓案大家記憶猶新,幾任總統不管綠的藍的都不敢碰這大案。中共海軍如何我不敢說,但好的傳統在中國官場一向難以延續,壞的傳統卻毫無困難一代傳一代。中華民國的海軍甚或中華人民共和國的海軍能不能打仗,更進一步能不能打勝仗,說句不客氣的話,都一樣沒有把握。

 

保釣如果打贏日本固然好,萬一打輸,後果其實不堪設想。台灣當然是不會真正動 武的。中共唯一比較有把握的應該是萬()船齊發,在漁船上埋伏了解放軍,上了 釣魚台就穩操勝券,解放軍打陸戰究竟比較有把握。但是即使佔領了釣魚台,後續仍靠海軍和空軍,所以必須謹慎從事。

 

戰爭是政治的延續。保釣考驗著中共﹑日本﹑台灣的領導者的智慧,如果玩政治玩到必須訴諸戰爭,是領導者的失敗,不是成功老保釣們更不宜煽風點火,想想萬 一打敗仗豈不更加難過﹖實在氣憤難平。自己僱船登上釣魚台抗議,不管成功不成功,還是比較妥當的辦法。



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2012/09/27 02:05 【不平則鳴】 楚囚對泣: 張系國談保釣!
按劇本演出 - 李明賢
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國安透露 事前與中日交涉過

 

李明賢, 中國時報, 09/2/12

 

由民間發動大規模保釣,宜蘭籍漁船一度挺進釣魚台三浬的領海區,被形容是近年最成功保釣活動之一。國安高層透露,政府事前曾透過外交管道與日交涉,要求不得過度刺激我漁船」,也透過兩岸管道要求中方不要派船出海」,避免形成兩岸聯手保釣,「事前做好各種準備,才能確保一切按劇本演出」。

 

因應民間這場保釣行動,在馬英九總統指示下,國安會邀集國防部、外交部、陸委會、海巡署組成專案小組,並從周日開始密集開會討論,研擬各項可能的突發狀況;據悉,原先我方就排除直接登島的選項,但希望漁船能進入釣島十二浬內宣示主權,「能進入十二浬就是成功達陣」。

 

據透露,原先國安系統最擔心的,就是我漁船登島會讓局勢變複雜,不論是台日船艦發生衝突,或是我漁民、海巡人員遭日方逮捕,恐將釀成一場外交衝突,情況會變得很難處理。

 

情人士也提到,早在宜蘭船隊出海前,政府透過外交管道告知日方「不能有過激的行動」,等於帶有外交警告意味,不得刁難我保釣船,最後日方也沒有採取最強硬的手段驅離。

 

對於海巡署船艦在釣島海域與日本保安廳船艦對峙甚至是互噴水柱,不僅馬英九總統稱許海巡署護漁的英勇作為,也有相關人士形容「王進旺可拿勳章了」,認為這是堅守主權的一種方式。

 

http://news.chinatimes.com/focus/501012005/112012092600488.html



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